European monetary union: so troubled, so awkward and ill-conceived, et cetera.
And so… speedy?
We spent a bit of time last year pondering precedents and possible scenarios for monetary union break-ups, of which there are few with much appeal. But Deutsche Bank strategist Stuart Parkinson makes the interesting argument that it took about 147 years for the US to become a monetary union. Read more
Here’s a call from Sober Look on Tuesday — Germany’s growth might be on the cusp of going negative:
So much for the hopes and dreams of German decoupling from the Eurozone’s economic troubles. How things have changed in just six months… Germany’s growth trajectory is now converging with the rest of the euro area’s weakened economic conditions.
FT Alphaville didn’t enter the Wolfson economics competition, in part because our pizza drawing skills don’t pass muster, but Nomura’s Jens Nordvig and Nick Firoozye did. Their entry landed them one of the five finalist spots (more about those here).
Ahead of the announcement of the winner on Thursday, the pair have published a rather interesting and disturbing list of what they learned in the process of eurozone breakup solutionising. It won’t please anyone who’s been arguing that a break-up might not be such a big deal. Here’s a tl;dr version of their list of grim learnings: Read more
Capital Economics has been envisaging a Eurozone breakup since at least 2010, but they’ve just got a little more concrete about this being their central scenario:
Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012. But our central scenario envisages a break-up of EMU this year initially involving Greece’s departure, an outcome that would presumably dampen investors’ optimism.