From Martin Lueck and team at UBS:
Who’s winning? Read more
From Martin Lueck and team at UBS:
Who’s winning? Read more
Greece goes to the polls this weekend. And it looks like it’s going to be messy. The potential for the “wrong” result to wreak havoc in the markets on Monday morning is real.
The outcome is very difficult to predict due to the incredible fragmentation of political support within the country and the rise of marginal parties. Many of these are deeply opposed to the austerity measures, the euro and the EU/IMF programme. As a result, mainstream parties have been dragged away from the centre. Read more
Governments across Europe can breathe a deep sigh of relief. Even the unlucky few who can’t convince Ms. Merkel to carry their standard on the campaign trail may not be brutalised at the polls by vengeful electorates beaten down by austerity.
Why? Read more
We saw some ‘political risk’ last weekend — when Finnish voters elected a number of politicians from the euro-skeptic True Finns party into office. It is feared that any resulting political coalition with the True Finns included could threaten to throw the eurozone’s bailout plans out of whack.
So don’t expect political risk to go away. Read more
Declaring an end to US combat operations in Iraq last week, Barack Obama told his country he would from now on devote his attention to the ailing economy, saying that restoring growth and jobs was his “central responsibility as president”, reports the FT. Some listeners may have felt they had heard this somewhere before. Mr Obama said the economy would be his top priority four months earlier – and in January before that . . . and last November. Opinion polls show that voters are also growing fed up with hearing him saying the economy is on the right track when their daily lives do not bear this out. Even as the unemployment rate ticked up to 9.6 per cent last week, Mr Obama said his administration had taken steps to “break the back of this recession”. Read more
Exit polls indicate the Conservatives will win 307 seats in the new Commons, with Labour on 255 and the Lib Dems 59. That would leave all the major parties short of the 326 needed to form a majority administration after the general election, the FT said. If the polls prove accurate, Conservative leader David Cameron will almost certainly become UK prime minister, taking his party back into power for the first time in 13 years. The prospect of a hung parliament sent sterling more than a cent lower against the dollar, trading around 1.4747 at pixel time. Read more
Ken Clarke, shadow business secretary, warned that Britain faces economic “disaster” if voters continue their flirtation with Nick Clegg, the FT reported. The pound will “wobble”, the markets could take fright and the IMF could be forced to intervene if the Lib Dem advance leads to a hung parliament, Clarke argued in an FT op-ed. Read more