Posts tagged 'elections'

10 questions on the Greek election answered

From Martin Lueck and team at UBS:

Who’s winning? Read more

Greek elections: Be afraid, be very afraid

Greece goes to the polls this weekend. And it looks like it’s going to be messy. The potential for the “wrong” result to wreak havoc in the markets on Monday morning is real.

The outcome is very difficult to predict due to the incredible fragmentation of political support within the country and the rise of marginal parties. Many of these are deeply opposed to the austerity measures, the euro and the EU/IMF programme. As a result, mainstream parties have been dragged away from the centre. Read more

On austerity and political suicide

Governments across Europe can breathe a deep sigh of relief. Even the unlucky few who can’t convince Ms. Merkel to carry their standard on the campaign trail may not be brutalised at the polls by vengeful electorates beaten down by austerity.

Why? Read more

Political risk, elections edition

We saw some ‘political risk’ last weekend — when Finnish voters elected a number of politicians from the euro-skeptic True Finns party into office. It is feared that any resulting political coalition with the True Finns included could threaten to throw the eurozone’s bailout plans out of whack.

So don’t expect political risk to go away. Read more

Obama acknowledges voter frustration

President Barack Obama on Wednesday challenged victorious Republicans to work with him on new initiatives to boost the economy and create jobs, in the wake of the largest Congressional defeat in more than half a century, the FT reports. The president took “direct responsibility” for his administration’s lack of progress on the economy, striking a sombre tone after American voters delivered what he called a “shellacking”’ at the polls halfway through his first term. Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives in midterm elections on Tuesday and saw their majority in the Senate sharply curtailed, leading the president to vow to work with Republicans to find ways to boost the US’s spluttering recovery. “I think that there is no doubt that people’s number one concern is the economy, and what they were expressing great frustration about is the fact that we haven’t made enough progress,” Mr Obama said at a press conference. Read more

Elections and the markets, avoid silly data-mining charts edition

Every time there’s an election in the US, analysts and pundits start data-mining through previous political cycles to predict what could happen next to the markets.

This kind of thing is more prevalent before presidential elections, but congressional elections aren’t completely immune. Read more

Obama finds patience thinning

Declaring an end to US combat operations in Iraq last week, Barack Obama told his country he would from now on devote his attention to the ailing economy, saying that restoring growth and jobs was his “central responsibility as president”, reports the FT. Some listeners may have felt they had heard this somewhere before. Mr Obama said the economy would be his top priority four months earlier  – and in January be­fore that . . . and last November. Opinion polls show that voters are also growing fed up with hearing him saying the economy is on the right track when their daily lives do not bear this out. Even as the unemployment rate ticked up to 9.6 per cent last week, Mr Obama said his administration had taken steps to “break the back of this recession”. Read more

UK exit polls make Tories largest party

Exit polls indicate the Conservatives will win 307 seats in the new Commons, with Labour on 255 and the Lib Dems 59. That would leave all the major parties short of the 326 needed to form a majority administration after the general election, the FT said. If the polls prove accurate, Conservative leader David Cameron will almost certainly become UK prime minister, taking his party back into power for the first time in 13 years. The prospect of a hung parliament sent sterling more than a cent lower against the dollar, trading around 1.4747 at pixel time. Read more

Clarke unleashed to attack Lib Dems

Ken Clarke, shadow business secretary, warned that Britain faces economic “disaster” if voters continue their flirtation with Nick Clegg, the FT reported. The pound will “wobble”, the markets could take fright and the IMF could be forced to intervene if the Lib Dem advance leads to a hung parliament, Clarke argued in an FT op-edRead more