Posts tagged 'Dylan Grice'

The FT Alphaville podcast, with Dylan Grice

Welcome to FT Alphaville’s extraordinarily infrequent podcast… (click through for the podcast link).

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Grice moves on

And the Societe Generale strategist (who says he will “resurface on the buy side early next year”) is going out in style — taking a leaf from the book of the order Blattodea.

From Dylan Grice’s last Popular Delusions note:

All good things come to an end, sadly. So it is with my time here alongside Albert, Andy and the rest of the gang at SG. I’m signing off, checking out, moving on to pastures new. It’s been a wonderful time. But after three years of trying to sound clever it’s time for me to do something altogether more difficult, and actually be clever. So early next year, I will join a small but outstanding investment practice. Naturally, I hope it will be a great success. But what makes a great success? Since there are few more accomplished species on earth than the lowly cockroach where better to start looking for an answer?

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Grice on traffic-lights and a crisis of regulation

As I watched the intricate social ballet that occurred as cars and bikes slowed to enter the circle (pedestrians were meant to cross at crosswalks placed a bit before the intersection) Monderman performed a favorite trick. He walked, backward and with his eyes closed, into the Laweiplein. The traffic made its way around him. No one honked, he wasn’t struck .Instead of a binary, mechanistic process – stop, go – the movement of traffic and pedestrians in the circle felt human and organic.”

The above quote is from the ever-readable Dylan Grice’s latest missive in which he argues that regulation acts much like traffic-lights, in that it lulls market participants into a false sense of security. Read more

Dylan Grice on sovereign comeuppance

Maybe all the Anglo-Saxon central banks have done is create the illusion that our sovereigns are more solvent than they are, and that our budget constraints are really a safe distance away. But I don’t think they are. And I think the truth gets out eventually. The Enrons, the Allied Capitals, the Bernie Madoffs … they all get their comeuppance.

That’s from SocGen’s Dylan Grice, who seems more than a little bit annoyed by government’s abilities to fiddle with the amounts they can borrow (their budget constraints). Read more

Inflation targeting, back in the frame

We know who’s brought this on. It was Ben Bernanke, last week, with confirmation of the Fed’s 2 per cent inflation target.  We suspect it’s one debate that is going to grow in intensity.

First to Bruce Corneil, a thoughtful fixed income manager at Beutel Goodman in Canada, who has just published this paperRead more

The risks of sticking to über harte währung strategy

Germany’s ‘hard money’ principles and opposition to Quantitative Easing by the ECB are, more often than not, framed with reference to the hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic.

Indeed, it’s a widely accepted truth that the horrors of the Third Reich were caused by the three year period of hyperinflation between June 1921 and July 1924. Read more

Five steps to financial crisis

The farce of the eurozone’s debt crisis is understandably captivating, but is an even bigger situation developing in China? Credit-fuelled gullibility lies at the heart of most bubbles, but such gullibility provides quality fodder for fraudulent schemes too. No one notices on the way up. But Charles Kindleberger showed in his seminal history of financial manias that they start emerging on the way down. In this context, China’s newsflow is worrying indeed.

So begins the latest note from SocGen’s Dylan Grice. And it’s something of a treat. He’s puzzled that so few people are forecasting a hard landing for China given the developing distress in the highly speculative (and pivotal) sector of its economy. Read more

The market for honesty: Gold at $10,000

To those who think inflation is not a problem SocGen’s deep-thinking strategist Dylan Grice has two charts for you:

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Cash is king

Here’s something you don’t hear very often in the City of London: cash doesn’t get the attention it deserves as an asset class.

But SocGen’s strategist Dylan Grice wants to change that. He reckons there are times when it’s simply the best thing to own. Read more

The global economy is critically ill

It’s a SocGen double header on FT Alphaville this Friday morning.

You’ve had the apprentice (Dylan Grice) and now it’s time for the Dark Sith Lord (Albert Edwards). Read more

Mean-reverting US government bonds

Here’s an arresting chart from SocGen strategist Dylan Grice.

It shows gross interest payments as a share of US government revenues under two scenarios. Read more

Why commodities may not be a good bet

According to SocGen’s Dylan Grice, seeking a decent long-term return on commodities is akin to selling coal to Newcastle: rather foolhardy.

For those in need of a history lesson, he has outlined the case of why in his opinion commodities aren’t really so swell. Read more

Bursting bubbles

What better way to end the week than with a history lesson from Société Générale’s Dylan Grice:

Financial historians have shown that every single financial crisis since the 1870s has been preceded by rampant credit growth.

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Dylan Grice vs Brics

Something from Société Générale’s Dylan Grice (and something of a reply to his SocGen colleague Albert Edwards), who recently indulged in the “mugs game” of forecasting capital gains in world equity markets, to start the week.

In his own words, the outlook is distinctly underwhelming: Read more

The liquidity and momentum trade de rigueur

We’ll skip the stuff on the Ice Age, looming recession, competitive devaluation, protectionism and the 60 per cent off equities forecast (all of which is getting a little bit repetitive) and get straight to the freshest bit of the latest Global Strategy Weekly from SocGen’s Albert Edwards.

And it concerns the consensus trade of the moment – emerging markets and commodities. Read more

Dylan Grice vs Emerging Markets

Société Générale strategist Dylan Grice is back on the Rudolf von Havenstein trail.

Grice first brought up von Havenstein back in March, noting the Prussian central banker’s penchant for monetising Germany’s debt during the First World War — leading to massive bouts of hyperinflation. Also of note, according to Grice, was von Havenstein’s striking resemblance to one Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke. Read more

The price of bear insurance

One of the ways you could criticise many of the überbears in the market is that — while they’re good at prognosticating doom — they just don’t explain well enough what investors should do to avoid it.

So kudos to Société Générale economist Dylan Grice on Friday. Read more

China, 1789 and potash

What caused the 1973 spike in oil prices? The Opec embargo?

Wrong, according to SocGen’s Dylan Grice — who reckons it was merely the trigger. The cause was actually structural: a rapid surge in the import needs of the USA: Read more

Summer reading from SocGen’s Dylan Grice

Need some beach reading? SocGen strategist Dylan Grice on Thursday shared five books he’s read recently that he rather enjoyed.

Here are Grice’s picks and brief commentary: Read more

Greece – ‘It’s not that different’

SocGen’s Dylan Grice is one person not bored with Greece. In fact, he believes it is the beginning of a wave of government funding crises, not the end.

The reason? The colossal amount of government debt that needs to be issued. Read more

When to sell gold?

SocGen strategist Dylan Grice argues the time to sell gold is not necessarily now – but it may well be nigh. FT Alphaville has more. Read more

‘Some useful things I’ve learned about Germany’s hyperinflation’

That’s from Dylan Grice — über-bear Albert Edwards’ sidekick at Societe Generale.

He’s done a review of inflation during the Weimar Republic inflation in his latest `Popular Delusions’ note. Prussian central banker Rudolf von Havenstein developed a habit of monetising Germany’s debt during the First World War, eventually leading to massive bouts of hyperinflation: Read more

Surely he can’t still be bearish?

So began the presentation of Albert Edwards at SocGen’s ‘Alternative Strategy’ event at London’s Marriott Hotel Grosvenor Square on Tuesday.

In front of a packed Westminster Ballroom — we reckon around at least 400 people turned up — Edwards revealed, much to the surprise of no one, that ‘yes’ he was still bearish. Read more

Festive reading

Looking for something to read over Christmas? Or perhaps you are struggling to find a pressie for the banker in your life?

Well, FT Alphaville can help — with a little assistance from SocGen strategist Dylan Grice. Read more

Bargain Britain

The UK stock market is cheap.

That’s the surprising conclusion of the latest ‘Popular Delusions’ note from Soc Gen strategist Dylan Grice. Read more

A Minskian roadmap to the next gold mania

It’s making headlines, so here’s what all the gold at $6,300 fuss is about.

Selected highlights of the latest  ‘Popular Delusions’ note from Société Générale’s Dylan Grice: Read more

The herd vs the reward, or in praise of contrarian investing

In a typically erudite note on Wednesday, SocGen’s Dylan Grice declared his allegiance to the anti-groupthink brigade, warning of the deleterious effect of the herd mentality on returns.

As he put it: Read more

Where to find value in a liquidity drunk market

Bonds do it, stocks do it, even educated credit default swaps do it.

We live in strange times, with virtually every non-zero sum asset having embarked on a dizzy rally, all at once. Read more

Et tu Bernanke?

Societe Generale’s Dylan Grice, the Robin to Albert Edward’s Batman, has published a fresh bit of research on Friday.

As can be expected of the bearish duo, the note does not disappoint on the bleakness front. In fact, it hints at no less than a repeat of the fall of Rome. Read more