Posts tagged 'Dollar'

On the availability of dollar funding

General collateral rates are known to get volatile as banks scramble for liquidity ahead of the quarter’s close.

But this March 31, GC rates didn’t just get volatile. They went positively paraobolic.

According to Bloomberg Data, the overnight US dollar GC rate more than doubled to 0.45 per cent, a rate not seen in the markets since October 2012. They fell back to 0.2 per cent range on Wednesday, implying there’s no systemic threat to talk about, but the spike does prompt questions over how and why a funding mismatch of this level might have come about. Read more

Have we just seen the last $ spike?

Quite a bit of motion sickness in the world of FX on Thursday, with the sharp pullback in the dollar that followed Chair Yellen’s dropping of the Fed’s “patient” pledge on Wednesday now all but reversed…

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There’s no right to parity

Is this nuts?

…the speed of the Euro depreciation is starting to look very fast. We are in the 99th percentile (at least) of 3M, 6M, 9M, and 12M moves since initiation in 1999.

- Nordvig, Nomura

Over the last eight months the USD has appreciated faster on a trade-weighted basis than at any time in the last 40 years and probably over a longer, much longer duration.

- Englander, Citi

Which, again, looks like this: Read more

About that $9 trillion global non-bank credit exposure…

In one of our previous post about petrodollars, we cited BoAML on how nobody really knows how the petrodollar shadow liquidity flows through the global economy, apart from the fact that eventually they end up being repatriated to the US via investments in domestic stocks or bonds (both public and corporate).

It’s a point worth bearing in mind in the context of this working paper from the BIS’s Robert McCauley, Patrick McGuire and Vladyslav Sushko, from January, previously covered by Matt. Read more

It’s not the euro that’s getting cheaper; it’s the dollar that’s getting more expensive

You may have noticed that a US dollar goes a lot further in much of Europe than it used to. In fact, it goes about 25 per cent further. From our colleagues at FastFT:

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Dollar reserves as goodwill oil-product claims

A while back we proposed that oil prices are more interest-rate sensitive than most people appreciate.

The logic goes as follows.

When interest rates are low it makes more sense for producers and commodity owners to hold their wealth in commodity-form rather than in money-form — especially if speculators are prepared (via the forward curve) to compensate them for the cost of storing these commodities in terminals, tanks or even in the ground.

Low interest rates thus support commodity prices because they encourage commodity owners to sell only what they need for financial liquidity purposes and little more, a fact which naturally keeps the market tight. Read more

Video: The dollar rally in context

Some thoughts on the recent dollar rally. See this post for more on the supporting arguments.

Moving on up now, can the dollar break free?

Jens Nordvig of Nomura reports a frequent question from clients: can the recent dollar rally turn into a big change in the currency’s value, similar to those that occurred in the 1980s and 1990s?

Answer: maybe, but it is worth remembering just how big those dollar moves were. See if you can spot them in the long term dollar index chart:

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Another USD regime shift?

From BofAML’s David Woo, with our emphasis:

A major consensus this year was that this was going to be a rates-centric year. Eight months into the year, many investors continue to believe that with QE3 winding down, all markets will be taking their cues from the US rates market sooner than later. Currency investors are no exceptions. USD bulls have built their investment thesis on the assumption of higher US rates and have been waiting for rates to climb to establish or add to long USD positions.

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Does Pimco know something we don’t?

On Sunday Pimco issued an intriguing tweet from Bill Gross, the undisputed King of the bond mountain.

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Default denial and the dollar

This was Paul Krugman’s guess about what a debt-ceiling fueled government shutdown could lead to:

I’m not at all sure that we’re looking at an interest rate spike; maybe even the opposite. But for sure we should be looking at a plunging dollar, and probably carnage in the stock market too.

Courtesy of Deutsche Bank, here’s the latest change in net dollar futures positioning as of last week: Read more

One very large divergence please (with a dollar chaser)

According to Nomura, since 1980, there are only two periods of economic divergence — between the US and Europe and the UK — comparable to what we are observing currently.

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Too much appreciation too soon for the renminbi?

Thanks to Monument Securities’ Marc Ostwald for directing our attention to an interesting report from MNI on Tuesday regarding changing attitudes to the renminbi:

The PBOC made a “big mistake” in letting the yuan rise so quickly earlier this year because it has only swelled the level of foreign exchange onshore, creating potential problems when depreciation expectations rise and capital starts flowing out of the country, regulators contendRead more

QE down under

Another day, another Aussie GDP downgrade.

From BofA Merrill Lynch: Read more

Don’t mention the R word

That’s recession and the merest hint of the word sends Australian policymakers in to paroxysms of anger.

For example, here’s David Gruen (the Treasury’s chief macroeconomist) speaking before a Senate hearing last week.

From the Sydney Morning HeraldRead more

The Aussie dollar – from south pacific peso to southern Swiss franc and back again

The pain goes on for the currency dubbed until recently the southern Swiss Franc

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Down, down, deeper and down

We are, of course, talking about the Australian dollar — now going head to head with the Syrian pound for the title of the world’s worst performing currency.

The latest drop follows a call from Pimco of even lower interest rates. Read more

A dollar bully

Dear everyone, this article is based on a questionable premise: that the dollar is about to head off on another bull run. We know this may not happen. Thanks, us. Read more

Ware the currency wars

You gotta roll with fashion:

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Bye, bye RoRo

For US dollar pairs at least…

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Gawd but the currency wars are boring

There’s basically nothing happening. Sure we’ve got plenty of rhetoric, a Swiss franc floor and QE — but FX volatility is touching recent lows:

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A tinhat-full of dollars

This is just a lovely chart from the FX team at HSBC (click in to see — tis just too big for an excerpt to handle):

What it, and its fellow soon to be introduced below, do is call further into question the US dollar’s status as a haven currency; one which will benefit in periods of risk aversion. They do so by looking at the performance of G10 currencies against the S&P500. It’s a timely query considering the approaching fiscal cliff… and, well, lots of other stuff. Read more

Cofer catch-up time

The glacial pace of FX reserve change continues, as documented by the IMF ’s “Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves” data which was released on Friday.

Summary: the dollar is still reluctantly loved, the euro is ‘confused’ by the Swiss and everyone is as deep into the ‘others’ as they can be… which isn’t far. Read more

It’s the FDI, stupid

When commentators cast around for reasons to explain the strength of the Australian dollar in the face of falling iron ore and coal prices they all arrive at the same answer - haven bond buying by central banks/ sovereign wealth funds. In fact, we’ve also made that very point.

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Reserve managers caught between a euro and a dollar place

The pace of reserve accumulation may have been slowing over the past few years — although that also reflects  movements in the value of currencies within the portfolios, particularly the dollar — but there are good reasons to suggest it may be picking up again:

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The euro’s paradox

With apologies to Russell: a stronger euro may well sit within the set of things that weaken the euro.

Or, to put it even more circularly, if the single currency gets stronger, then the eurozone’s economic recovery gets harder — and thus the measures that are taken, ostensibly, to shore the euro up run the risk of doing it damage by undermining its longer-term existence. Read more

A currency war campaign plan for the BoJ

(Chart from RBC Capital Markets.) Read more

Currency wars redux

QE3 has set the dogs of FX verbal intervention loose (well, looser anyway) and it seems probable some actual shots may be fired in the coming while.

Bank of New York Mellon’s alliterative Neil Mellor pointed to Brazil, where the central bank was the first to pass comment on the Fed’s move (with our emphasis): Read more

Fortescue and the Wile E. Coyote moment for the A$

And so Fortescue Metals Group, poster child for the Australian resources boom, has bowed to the inevitable and scaled back its heroic expansion plan.

Or as the heavily indebted company prefers to spin it; Takes decisive action on iron ore market volatility. Read more

The Aussie dollar – from South Pacific peso to Southern franc

It can’t be much fun being an Australian in London at the moment. (Trailing the Brits is one thing, but lagging the Kiwis in the medal table must really hurt.)

But at least our antipodean visitors can afford to indulge in a little retail therapy at Westfield Stratford City (the Australian dollar is trading close to a record high against the British pound) or, if they are really embarrassed, hop on the Eurostar to Paris (where the dollar hit a record high against the eurothingy just last week). Read more