Posts tagged 'David Rosenberg'

Bear hunting

This post by FT commentator James Mackintosh is cross-published from the FT Long Short blog that James writes with John Authers. It’s well worth bookmarking.

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The Roubini-Rosenberg indicator

Roubini and Rosenberg contrary indicators chart, by Nomura FX desk

We missed this on Friday… H/T the delightful Brazilian BubbleRead more

David Rosenberg’s cartoon-ish 2011

David Rosenberg’s gone all cartoony.

The Gluskin Sheff analyst seems to have given up on on words and is instead using charts — and Loony Tunes — to illustrate his (very salient) points. Read more

Goldbugging con’t…

Breakfast with Dave (Rosenberg, of Gluskin Sheff) on Wednesday included this remarkable, self-explanatory chart:

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Dave fires back

Dave Rosenberg has not taken Birinyi Associates’ attack on his bearishness lying down. In fact, Big Dave has taken – like lightning – to his newsletter.

First, a broadside against his insufficiently ursine compatriots: Read more

David Rosenberg on why the yield curve will flatten – this time!

Dave Rosenberg is enjoying his moment.

On Thursday the Gluskin Sheff man took to his morning notes to answer one of the big questions regarding the Fed’s last — and future — bout of quantitative easing. Back in early 2009, the Fed set out to stimulate the economy by flattening the yield curve with its QEasing. It worked initially, but then yields began creeping back up. What then, will be different this time? Read more

This is Dave’s moment

Finally. The moment David Rosenberg has been waiting for…

As the Gluskin Sheff economist stated in his regular Breakfast with Dave note on Wednesday (our emphasis): Read more

Rosenberg’s 17 reasons to be bullish (seriously)

Count ’em! We’d better capture these bullish talking-points from Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg, just in case they disappear…

— Congress extending jobless benefits (yet again).

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A flashing red light from the ECRI

This will have bears like David Rosenberg and Albert Edwards licking their lips.

The Bloomberg chart below — which you can click to enlarge — shows the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) weekly indicator: Read more

Nothing fundamental about this rally

Sure, the earnings seasons has started well with beats from Alcoa Intel and BMW, a few bond auctions in the European periphery have passed without incident and bank stress test hasn’t thrown up anything nasty (yet) but is it really enough to explain the swing from double-dip despair to recovery optimism? FT Alphaville asks the question – and David Rosenberg provides an answer: the drug of liquidity. Read more

Don’t panic, the Baltic dry is a rubbish indicator!

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) — a measure of shipping costs for dry bulk goods — suffered its 29th consecutive daily decline on Wednesday, to record its longest losing streak in more than six years, according to Bloomberg.

It’s news that David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, amongst others, managed to get pretty excited about on Wednesday. He, for example, thought it’s the sort of story that should have made the front pages by now: Read more

An initial double-dip indicator

Wells Capital Management wants everyone to forget Payroll Friday.

The number to focus on as an indicator for the shape of the US recovery, Wells’ chief investment strategist Jim Paulsen says, is not the monthly payroll figure, but initial unemployment insurance claims, reported every Thursday. Last week, they fell by 3,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 456,000Read more

Rosenberg: ‘Gold is now in a bubble? Not a chance’

This is Dave’s  moment, and the the Gluskin Sheff man let fly on Friday – proclaiming the enduring attraction of gold, tearing into spurious retail sales figures in the US and declaring the primary trendline now to be global deflation.

But let’s concentrate on gold, something of a hot topic on FT Alphaville (with charts!) Read more

Dave’s worry list

From Gluskin Sheff’s ever-cheery David Rosenberg on Friday:

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Rosenberg, damned

From Thursday’s Breakfast with Dave from Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist David Rosenberg:


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Hamp-lified, moral hazard outrage du jour

Earlier this week, a US Treasury presentation containing suggested alterations to the department’s Home Affordable Modification Program (Hamp) leaked to the media.

One of the central suggestions of the presentation was that lenders would no longer be able to start foreclosing on a delinquent borrower until they’d been screened and judged ineligible for the Hamp. Read more

This may sound a touch heretical, but…

Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg on Thursday proffered some contrarian thoughts about fiscal deficits.

Highlights below, emphasis FT Alphaville’s: Read more

Rosenberg’s ‘Not So Great Depression’

Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg has taken umbrage with the term ‘The Great Recession’ to describe the current global economic malaise.

According to the seasoned economist, it’s quite clear what we experienced last year was not a recession but a depression. That said, it was definitely not another ‘Great Depression’. Read more

Why this is not the onset of a new secular bull market

By David A. Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff.

Dave’s gonna hit someone

Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg hit out at Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Managment in his Monday missive. Why?

Here’s an extract from Paulsen’s latest monthly newsletterRead more

Poor Dave

Much as we love him, we must report that Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg has finally lost it. Here’s the evidence – from his latest “Breakfast with Dave” note to clients on Thursday:

So far, the backup for the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield is a 38% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the nearby high established in August.

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Fuming with Dave

Regulars will know that we look forward each day to “Breakfast with Dave,” the regular market musings of David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff.

Sometimes it’s called “Lunch with Dave”, presumably when he’s travelling or had a late night. But it’s always a great read. Read more

Dave’s furious

By all accounts, David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff is an understated fellow – humorous, self-deprecating, softly-spoken and quietly ironic.

Yet it is easy to read one of his “Breakfast (or Lunch, or Tea) with Dave”  missives, dispatched daily to clients and fans, and imagine a shrill, mono-tonal,  red-faced fanatic, shouting down all those around him. Read more

Rosenberg: ‘I stand accused of having missed the turn’

David Rosenberg released a 24-page special report on credit, commods and Canucks on Friday, but before he delved into those matters he had some words for his critics (emphasis FT Alphaville’s):

I stand accused of having missed the turn and that accusation comes from the throngs who believe that the only way to generate a positive return is through the equity market. You see, for so many pundits, you are labeled a “bull” or a “bear” based on how you feel about the equity market. You turn on the various business shows on bubble-vision, and it’s all about equities; one would think that there is no other market on the planet.

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“This overvalued, overbought, overextended market…”

Here’s some more from Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg, because his latest “Breakfast with Dave” note is  just so good.

He is NOT buying this stock market – remember, bear market rallies “are to be rented; never owned…” Read more

Just who is buying this rally?

Here’s an insightful question from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff on the matter of the current rally in global equities.

Who is actually doing the buying? Read more

“Just because the conventional economists are drinking the Kool-Aid doesn’t mean you have to”

Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg woke up on a particularly bearish side of the bed on Tuesday morning, if his most recent note is any indication.

Some highlights (any emphasis or hyperlinks FT Alphaville’s):

…all we see is more evidence of a revenue-less recovery. Home Depot beat estimates but still posting a deflationary 9.1% sales plunge after Lowe’s announced a 9.5% slide in same-store receipts. And, don’t look now, but three-month dollar Libor rates are back on the rise in the aftermath of the seizure of Colonial BancGroup (bringing the number of failed banks this year to 77 … hello, the credit crisis is not over just because the government bailed out the big boys)…

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On the matter of groupthink

Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg makes a lucid point in his Wednesday report (our emphasis):

It does appear that we have some groupthink to consider virtually everyone at this stage is now bullish on the market. This could mean that we are not going to get a lot more buying power to propel this equity rally over the near-term as it means that we have a lot of good news priced into the market. As an example, a CNBC poll released yesterday showed that 90% of Wall Street economists believe the recession has ended. It is highly unlikely that 90% of the economics community can be right on the same thing at the same time.

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Rosenberg (finally) sees green shoots

Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist and David Rosenberg appeared to be delighted by the rise in the Case-Schiller index of US house prices on Tuesday:


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Meredith Whitney is our leader

David Rosenberg‘s latest morning note has some interesting observations on the behaviour of investors and the cult of personality that seems to have arisen around former-bank slayer Meredith Whitney:

We thought that the ability of one person to move the market went out three decades ago with Henry Kaufmann over at Salomon Bros., but Meredith Whitney did manage to do the same – in a bullish fashion, though – with her CNBC remarks on Goldman yesterday morning. (Although, it was interesting that Dell’s reduced guidance for the current quarter garnered little attention.) What was interesting was how she stressed that this was not an industry-wide comment but rather specific to the firm and yet this was the tide that lifted all boats across the financials and the entire stock market for that matter. What this tells us is that even after 12 years of no appreciation in equities, and after brutal bear markets seven years apart, the public’s resolve in the stock market has not been shaken. The fact that the equity market could rally this much based on one analyst’s commentary is testament to the view of how badly investors want to believe that the recession and credit crunch are behind us and that unbridled prosperity lies ahead. As WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said yesterday, “I would caution against excessive optimism.”

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