This post by FT commentator James Mackintosh is cross-published from the FT Long Short blog that James writes with John Authers. It’s well worth bookmarking.
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Breakfast with Dave (Rosenberg, of Gluskin Sheff) on Wednesday included this remarkable, self-explanatory chart:
Dave Rosenberg is enjoying his moment.
On Thursday the Gluskin Sheff man took to his morning notes to answer one of the big questions regarding the Fed’s last — and future — bout of quantitative easing. Back in early 2009, the Fed set out to stimulate the economy by flattening the yield curve with its QEasing. It worked initially, but then yields began creeping back up. What then, will be different this time? Read more
Finally. The moment David Rosenberg has been waiting for…
As the Gluskin Sheff economist stated in his regular Breakfast with Dave note on Wednesday (our emphasis): Read more
Count ’em! We’d better capture these bullish talking-points from Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg, just in case they disappear…
— Congress extending jobless benefits (yet again).
Sure, the earnings seasons has started well with beats from Alcoa Intel and BMW, a few bond auctions in the European periphery have passed without incident and bank stress test hasn’t thrown up anything nasty (yet) but is it really enough to explain the swing from double-dip despair to recovery optimism? FT Alphaville asks the question – and David Rosenberg provides an answer: the drug of liquidity. Read more
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) — a measure of shipping costs for dry bulk goods — suffered its 29th consecutive daily decline on Wednesday, to record its longest losing streak in more than six years, according to Bloomberg.
It’s news that David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, amongst others, managed to get pretty excited about on Wednesday. He, for example, thought it’s the sort of story that should have made the front pages by now: Read more
Wells Capital Management wants everyone to forget Payroll Friday.
The number to focus on as an indicator for the shape of the US recovery, Wells’ chief investment strategist Jim Paulsen says, is not the monthly payroll figure, but initial unemployment insurance claims, reported every Thursday. Last week, they fell by 3,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 456,000. Read more
This is Dave’s moment, and the the Gluskin Sheff man let fly on Friday – proclaiming the enduring attraction of gold, tearing into spurious retail sales figures in the US and declaring the primary trendline now to be global deflation.
One of the central suggestions of the presentation was that lenders would no longer be able to start foreclosing on a delinquent borrower until they’d been screened and judged ineligible for the Hamp. Read more
Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg on Thursday proffered some contrarian thoughts about fiscal deficits.
Highlights below, emphasis FT Alphaville’s: Read more
Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg has taken umbrage with the term ‘The Great Recession’ to describe the current global economic malaise.
According to the seasoned economist, it’s quite clear what we experienced last year was not a recession but a depression. That said, it was definitely not another ‘Great Depression’. Read more
By David A. Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff.
Much as we love him, we must report that Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg has finally lost it. Here’s the evidence – from his latest “Breakfast with Dave” note to clients on Thursday:
So far, the backup for the U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield is a 38% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the nearby high established in August.
Regulars will know that we look forward each day to “Breakfast with Dave,” the regular market musings of David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff.
Sometimes it’s called “Lunch with Dave”, presumably when he’s travelling or had a late night. But it’s always a great read. Read more
By all accounts, David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff is an understated fellow – humorous, self-deprecating, softly-spoken and quietly ironic.
Yet it is easy to read one of his “Breakfast (or Lunch, or Tea) with Dave” missives, dispatched daily to clients and fans, and imagine a shrill, mono-tonal, red-faced fanatic, shouting down all those around him. Read more
David Rosenberg released a 24-page special report on credit, commods and Canucks on Friday, but before he delved into those matters he had some words for his critics (emphasis FT Alphaville’s):
I stand accused of having missed the turn and that accusation comes from the throngs who believe that the only way to generate a positive return is through the equity market. You see, for so many pundits, you are labeled a “bull” or a “bear” based on how you feel about the equity market. You turn on the various business shows on bubble-vision, and it’s all about equities; one would think that there is no other market on the planet.
Here’s an insightful question from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff on the matter of the current rally in global equities.
Who is actually doing the buying? Read more
Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg woke up on a particularly bearish side of the bed on Tuesday morning, if his most recent note is any indication.
Some highlights (any emphasis or hyperlinks FT Alphaville’s):
…all we see is more evidence of a revenue-less recovery. Home Depot beat estimates but still posting a deflationary 9.1% sales plunge after Lowe’s announced a 9.5% slide in same-store receipts. And, don’t look now, but three-month dollar Libor rates are back on the rise in the aftermath of the seizure of Colonial BancGroup (bringing the number of failed banks this year to 77 … hello, the credit crisis is not over just because the government bailed out the big boys)…
Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg makes a lucid point in his Wednesday report (our emphasis):
It does appear that we have some groupthink to consider — virtually everyone at this stage is now bullish on the market. This could mean that we are not going to get a lot more buying power to propel this equity rally over the near-term as it means that we have a lot of good news priced into the market. As an example, a CNBC poll released yesterday showed that 90% of Wall Street economists believe the recession has ended. It is highly unlikely that 90% of the economics community can be right on the same thing at the same time.
We thought that the ability of one person to move the market went out three decades ago with Henry Kaufmann over at Salomon Bros., but Meredith Whitney did manage to do the same – in a bullish fashion, though – with her CNBC remarks on Goldman yesterday morning. (Although, it was interesting that Dell’s reduced guidance for the current quarter garnered little attention.) What was interesting was how she stressed that this was not an industry-wide comment but rather specific to the firm and yet this was the tide that lifted all boats across the financials and the entire stock market for that matter. What this tells us is that even after 12 years of no appreciation in equities, and after brutal bear markets seven years apart, the public’s resolve in the stock market has not been shaken. The fact that the equity market could rally this much based on one analyst’s commentary is testament to the view of how badly investors want to believe that the recession and credit crunch are behind us and that unbridled prosperity lies ahead. As WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy said yesterday, “I would caution against excessive optimism.”