Last week, after excerpting a passage by Robert C Allen that dated the start of the Industrial Revolution to 1760, I floated a question about the history of economic thought:
If you had asked economists in 1759 whether such a fundamental shift was ever likely to happen, would they have thought the possibility ludicrous? Would they have argued that in the 12,000 years since the dawn of agriculture, humanity had yet to escape the Malthusian Trap — and therefore why believe that such an escape was even possible? Read more
You’ve heard what the early (and slim) analyst reaction has been, now for what the blogosphere has had to say about the fiscal deal achieved.
A good rundown comes courtesy of Pragmatic Capitalism’s Cullen Roche:
- A deal was actually finalized. That’s good news. It looked like we might actually go into January without a deal and that the odds of no deal at all were rising.
- No one really won here. Congress is totally dysfunctional.
- There’s still a lot unanswered.
Brad DeLong’s note on the first decades of central banking practice and theory didn’t get as much attention as his paper on fiscal policy at the zero bound (co-authored with Larry Summers) — but we really think it’s worth a read for anyone with an interest in the topic.
We won’t summarise the whole thing here, but one point in particular is worth emphasising. Read more
Gavin Davies asks a good question on his FT blog: Does the ECB really have a silver bullet?
An increasing number of market participants want to believe it does, and some have even convinced themselves that the ECB will pull the trigger on unsterilised bond buying, but Davies remains to be convinced. Read more