Warning: we start by rambling about a bunch of stuff that may not interest anyone besides methodology geeks. If you want to jump straight to how this morning’s BLS employment report might be affected by seasonality issues, scroll down to the next section in bold.

On the familiar list of challenges faced by the US economy last year were the reemergence of Europe as a perpetual near-disaster, the commodities price spike, supply chain disruptions from the Japanese earthquake, the S&P downgrade, and a remarkable streak of policy stupidity (budget showdown, debt ceiling debate, etc). Read more