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Live markets commentary from FT.com
Japan’s giant pension fund to buy more stocks || Draghi lauds ‘most successful’ ECB action || Soros returns to Japanese stocks || Glaxo’s Avandia scores FDA victory || LME chief Abbot plans to leave after $2.2bn takeover || Tech firms deny knowledge of secret US government efforts to tap their central servers for users’ data || Prosecutors to bring charges over Libor Read more
Just a short note from economist Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs reminding us that Friday’s employment situation report isn’t the only labour market indicator in town — and the others have revealed “a fairly mixed picture this month”:
1. Slightly better jobless claims. During the employment survey period (the week including the 12th of each month), initial jobless claims declined by 11,000 on a spot basis and 22,000 on a 4-week moving average basis. Continuing jobless claims were also down slightly. Read more
Elsewhere on Friday,
- One chart that bodes very poorly for job growth.
- Here come the Robo-journalists.
- The China-EU solar panel trade dispute analysed. Read more
Bear market for the Nikkei. The index entered bear territory after the strong yen pushed it down more than 1.3 per cent on Friday, bringing the decline since its May 23 peak to around 20 per cent. (Wall Street Journal) The Topix is down 18 per cent from its May high, but remains up 22 per cent for 2013.
Japan’s finance minister ruled out immediate intervention in the yen despite its 2.2 per cent jump against the dollar on Thursday and continued strength on Friday. “We are carefully watching, but we don’t have any immediate intention of taking any action, such as intervention,” Taro Aso said. (Bloomberg) The US dollar had at one point on Thursday dipped 3 per cent against the yen, a sell-off attributed to investors reversing views on how long the Fed will maintain QE3. (Financial Times) Read more
FURTHER FURTHER READING
- How much blame does Mervyn King deserve?
- Testing Abenomics.
- Has the US deficit monster been defeated? Read more
Oh, Canada.
Home of oil sands, maple syrup, ice hockey, singing astronauts, William Shatner, the Bank of England’s governor-to-be and (rather poignantly) a lot of bears… Read more
A fresh rout in Japanese equities was signalled on Thursday, with the Nikkei 225 June future touching 12,600 at pixel on the CME. That’s 300 points or so below the official close in Tokyo earlier and about 3,300 points below the high on the June contract seen last month.
(UPDATE: This is proper carnage again. Nikkie June future at 12300, down 600 points post-pixel) Read more
The Aussie dollar is looking more like the South Pacific peso at the moment, but Australia is not alone in fending off the commodity currency backlash.
South Africa’s market is under similar pressure, and South African Reserve Bank governor Gill Marcus is not having a good time of it when it comes to guiding the markets out of the turmoil. Read more
The Great Draghini has spoken on negative rates, collateral and on volatility:
DRAGHI – HAD AMPLE DISCUSSION OF NONSTANDARD MEASURES
DRAGHI – DISCUSSED NEGATIVE DEPOSIT FACILITY
DRAGHI – TECHNICALLY READY FOR NEGATIVE DEPOSIT RATES, BUT NO REASON TO ACT RIGHT NOW
Live markets commentary from FT.com
ECB and Draghi day || France is threatening to upstage talks on the EU-US trade pact || The ESM will likely have a €50bn-€70bn limit on direct investments in banks || London should hand Libor supervision to EU, says Brussels || Pro-austerity Finland falls into triple-dip recession || Gabon seeks to reclaim Chinese oil assets || IMF admits to errors in international bailout of Greece || NSA collecting Verizon customer data, Guardian says || FBI and Microsoft take down botnet criminal network || SAC Capital told employees it expects to stay open following a wave of client redemptions || Finra in the US has increased its scrutiny of dark pools || Markets roundup || FTAV’s latest Read more
We couldn’t manage to squeeze these charts from Edward Wolff’s paper into our earlier already-novel-length post about monetary policy and US inequality (click to enlarge each). Read more
And the annual report from the St Louis Fed found that 62 per cent of the wealth recovery through the end of last year has been the result of rising stock markets — and stock ownership is concentrated among richer households.
Economix has a very good summary, and we also recommend last year’s paper by Edward Wolff, in which you’ll find this chart (click to enlarge): Read more
Elsewhere on Thursday,
- Has BIS found the solution to too big to fail?
- How I learned to stop worrying and love the bond.
- The semantics of monetary policy. Read more
Asian shares fell back towards their 2013 lows. The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 0.7 per cent, towards its level in January. Japan’s Nikkei swung to a loss from a 1.7 per cent increase earlier, and the Topix fell more than 1 per cent, down 15 per cent from the five-year high it set in May. (Bloomberg)
The ESM will likely have a €50bn-€70bn limit on direct investments in banks. The condition on the bailout fund’s draft direct recapitalisation tool was outlined in a policy paper following six months of talks on breaking the “vicious circle” between sovereigns and banks. The limit to recapitalisation funds reflects the higher provisions on this kind of investment compared to the ESM’s more normal practice of lending to governments. (Reuters) Read more
The pain goes on for the currency dubbed until recently the southern Swiss Franc…
Click for the IMF’s “ex post evaluation” of its role in the Greek bailout. Its mea culpa.
And if you thought we were being harsh here, parts of the real thing are excoriating.
This is even though the report decides Greece’s exceptional access to IMF lending was justified (generally), and it still says much fiscal adjustment could not be avoided. Policies were “broadly correct”. But it does strongly suggest that debt restructuring should have come sooner.
Excerpts follow…
FURTHER FURTHER READING
- John Jeremiah Sullivan on the publication of Cotton Tenants.
- Early bird specials and US growth.
- Some good ideas on infrastructure and profit repatriation from Larry Summers.
It’s been our mantra at FT Alphaville for a while, but finally someone from the ‘serious’ analyst space seems to agree with our hypothesis that commodity collateralisation — incentivised by low rates and excess liquidity — is having a larger impact on inventories and commodity prices than most people appreciate.
Here’s an extract from one of oil market veteran Philip K. Verleger’s recent articles on the relationship between interest rates and inventories (our emphasis): Read more
FT Alphaville was cordially invited to talk about the collateralisation of commodities at two separate conferences this past month. We thank IHS Global and the Association des Economiste Quebcois for the opportunity.
The crux of our argument was that you can’t really understand what’s going on in commodity markets unless you appreciate that commodities are no longer a pure consumption-based market. Read more
So, the International Monetary Fund (effectively) wishes to apologise to all concerned for that little thing where it turned into Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s presidential election campaign a few years back.
Sorry if a country got broken along the way: Read more
Just when we thought we’d dreamed Monday’s news of this.
The mysterious folks at Japonica Partners have come out with their full “tender offer” to buy up almost 10 per cent (€2.9bn) of Greece’s restructured bonds: Read more
Ok, this is from Perels, a consultancy, and it concerns UK property prices across the board, not just London. Click to enlarge…
In this guest post, UBS global economist Paul Donovan argues that ending gender discrimination benefits us all…
__________ Read more
From Morgan Stanley’s combined banks/economics/credit/rates research team on Tuesday:
Live markets commentary from FT.com
Abe unveils ‘third arrow’ reforms and Nikkei slumps again || China takes tit-for-tat move against EU wine exports || Apple could face a US import ban on certain iPhone and iPad models || Brazil got rid of its tax on foreign investment in domestic bonds || Australian growth disappointed in the first quarter || Japanese hedge funds have ploughed into the country’s small-cap stocks || More signs of ECB wariness ahead of Thursday’s meeting || Tesco recovery stalls as sales fall || JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are designing new synthetic CDOs || JPMorgan’s Alabama debacle set to cost bank $1.5bn || HSBC has been landed with a civil lawsuit from the state of New York || MF Global is effectively out of bankruptcy || IKEA founder steps aside || Markets wrap || FTAV’s latest Read more
1Time to take basic income seriously?
2We cannae give the economy no more, we're giv'n it all we've got Captain
3The case for official e-money +1
4On what really is different this time around
5Hacking and property prices make the BoE big league
Show more6Tax needn't be taxing. It can also be a Hungarian debt wheeze
7"Companies should know who really owns them..."
8The central bank (communications) bubble
9QE down under
10The end of the end of the end of the commodities supercycle is nigh, in Asia
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