Nikkei 15,000 comes courtesy of a weak yen and increasing earnings expectations which carry some potentially elevated valuations with them. If you need any evidence of how sensitive the Nikkei has become to the yen’s rise, here’s a chart to ease your suffering:
But there are other things at work here. Read more
FT Alphaville’s series on the rise of the collaborative economy has so far looked at a new type of growth, how peer-to-peer lending is a return to full-reserve banking, and the link between social networks and evolutionary game theory.
In the latter post we considered the value of reciprocity and collaboration, and whether what appears to be altruistic content generation really is self-serving after all?
But what about the rise of completely altruistic models like crowdfunding websites? Read more
So writes the FT’s Martin Wolf in his column today, which starts out noting that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations exceeded 400 parts per million last week, the highest level in 4.5m years.
As he says, if we take a prudential view of public finances, then surely a similar approach to something irreversible and much costlier” is warranted.< Read more
Live markets commentary from FT.com
FT Alphaville is hiring! || Meet Bloomberg TradeBook || China GDP forecast revisions || Bloomberg withdrawal || US budget deficit declines faster than expected || France falls back into recession || HSBC announces more cost-cutting || China to surpass US corporate debt market in next two years || Latest on JPM shareholder vote || Walmart won’t join other retailers in factory safety deal || German court rules against Google search suggestions || Flowers to acquire Cabot Credit || Market Update Read more
Gary Jenkins from Swordfish Research is having a moment; but it’s an interesting moment. On Monday he wrote:
“A while back I said that everything was now a credit and at the time that seemed a fair appraisal of the situation… However the market moves quickly and it is probably fair to say that right now everything is a rate product.*”
(The Co-Op bank, he says in the footnote, being the exception that proves the rule.) Read more
An upgrade in this environment is apparently stupidly effective. Here’s Greece’s 10-year bond yield tumbling a full one per cent the day after Fitch upgraded it to to B- from CCC, and said the outlook was stable:
… is strategists everywhere cutting their GDP forecasts.
Last week Standard Chartered’s China economist Stephen Green and his team slashed their 2013 forecast to 7.7 per cent from 8.3 per cent. Their 2014 forecast was cut to 7.5 per cent from 8.2 per cent.
Today, BAML’s Ting Lu cut to 7.6 for both 2013 and 2014, from 8 per cent and 7.7 per cent, respectively. Read more
We are looking for a natural writer, with an interest in all things financial to join the FTAV team in London.
Enthusiasm for online journalism and/or blogging is essential – as is an ability to get up in the morning. (We start early.) Read more
The world is becoming intimately acquainted with the technical ins-and-outs of the Bloomberg LP empire.
There is Bloomberg’s bread-and-butter business of selling sophisticated data terminals to thousands of banking, hedge fund and regulatory authorities around the world. There is also the well-respected news wire run by Matt Winkler. Read more
Elsewhere on Wednesday,
- What does Japan mean for everyone else?
- Just make the banks… smaller.
- On outrageous and overreaching action. Read more
Nikkei reaches 15,000, yen weakens || HSBC announces $2bn – $3bn more cost cuts || JC Flowers buys debt collector Cabot || Sinopec issues jumbo $3.5bn bond || Some JPMorgan shareholders targeting other directors, not Dimon || Three Chinese airlines cancel flights after threats || Wolf on climate change Read more
FURTHER FURTHER READING
- Why investors can’t imagine a collapse of the bond market. Read more
Abuse of official secrecy. It’s been one of the more corrosive but — by definition — shadier aspects of the eurozone crisis.
It can take the form of a report on money-laundering in Cyprus. Or the opaque process by which Troika debt sustainability analyses are drawn up. Emergency liquidity assistance to banks, even. Read more
Bloomberg withdrawal (BBG wɪðˈdrɔːəl) noun.
- Removal of all meaningful work space elements other than the desk, chair, phone, and headache tablets.
- Detachment from all those who matter in one’s work (and possibly also personal) life.
- Feeling of uncertainty that accompanies the suspicion that their terminal is somehow betraying them. Typically arises from reports in the media.
Unfortunately, an unusually high number of people may be suffering from the last one lately. Sorry about that.
In case you haven’t been following, there are two very separate threads to the Bloomberg kerfuffle. Read more
This Fobor based paragraph is from a Bank of America Merrill Lynch note published earlier in the month which the FT’s Robin Wigglesworth brought to our attention:
In a world of zero rates, where $19.4 trillion of government bonds (that’s 48% of the total market) is trading below 1%, it’s little wonder the “lust for yield” is as strong as it is.
Japanese government bonds have kept stumbling. Small beer anywhere else in the world, but considering the policy experiment ongoing over there it’s worth keeping an eye on.
We’re not too excited yet but here’s a chart of five and ten year yields and some speculation anyway… Read more
We suggest watching this story…
It looks like EU competition regulators paid some unannounced visits to oil company offices around Europe on Tuesday — note the reason: Read more
FT Alphaville has been taking a closer look at the collaborative economy, and noting the stellar growth this mysterious sector has been experiencing of late.
An important question to consider, however, is to what degree is this growth being driven by a genuine rise in reciprocity and altruism in the economy — or to what degree is this just the result of natural opportunism. Read more
FT Alphaville had the pleasure of moderating the “Future of Banking” panel at OuishareFest, a collaborative economy gathering, earlier this month.
During this discussion, an interesting point was made by Francois Carbone, CEO of an equity-based crowdfunding venture Anaxago. Namely, when you think about it, every peer-to-peer initiative (P2P) on offer today is really representative of a move towards a private sector version of full-reserve banking. Read more
Some charts from Pew’s latest survey of 8,000 people across eight EU countries, most of whom are increasingly *insert euphemism* with Europe:
Live markets commentary from FT.com
Sony to Loeb || CEO GO || That equities/commodities disconnect || Bloomberg messages leaked online || Watchdog probes energy & metals swaps || US to account for third of new oil supplies || Investor advisory firm hits out on Goldman exec pay || US housing groups to launch IPOs || Verizon Wireless will pay $7bn dividend to corporate parents || Obama outraged over claims IRS targeted Tea Party groups || Commerzbank moves to shore up capital || Market update Read more
Yes, we know it’s not new, but the divergence between stock markets and commodity prices is now looking extreme. Consider this chart from Julian Jessop at Capital Economics…
That’s the gist of Sony’s response to billionaire activist investor Daniel Loeb’s suggestion, made via hand-delivered letter, that Sony should break itself up. It stems from an NYT Andrew Ross Sorkin exclusive.
Loeb’s idea is basically: partially spin out Sony’s entertainment division via an IPO which Loeb’s Third Point fund would happily sign up to. He’d also gladly accept a seat on Sony’s board. As the NYT noted, Loeb is known for ousting Yahoo’s former chief executive and poaching Marissa Mayer from Google to run the company. His hedge fund has quietly amassed a stake of about 6.5 per cent in Sony, making it one of the biggest shareholders.
From Loeb’s letter to Sony’s president and CEO Kazuo Hirai: Read more
Elsewhere on Tuesday,
- The argument for universal basic income.
- And guaranteeing people’s unconditional right to “life, liberty and pursuit of happiness“.
- 177 days… why equities feel invincible.
- Hedge funds snapping up US houses. Read more
Asian shares firmer after US retail data beats expectations || Cameron rushes to EU referendum || CFTC queries a million exchange of futures for swaps || Help to Buy scheme already boosting UK housing || Big European clothing retailers sign binding garment worker accord || France looks to tax smartphones to support local content Read more
Message from the CEO of Bloomberg
Dear Client, Read more
US stocks barely budged; the S&P 500 was up 0.07 points to close at 1,633.77 (Reuters).
Bloomberg has been caught in another leak of client data. More than ten thousand confidential trader messages were left online for several years, accessible through a Google search, until taken down on Monday. Bloomberg said it was considering “all potential legal” actions after the apparently accidental leak. It emerged last week that Goldman complained to that the organisation’s journalists were able to track its employees’ activities on data terminals (Financial Times). Read more