Bryce Elder

bryce.elder@ft.com

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Bryce is a sporadic Alphaville contributor and has been the FT’s UK equities reporter since 2008. Before that he wrote about UK equities at Morningstar. Before that he wrote about UK equities at The Times. Before that he wrote about UK equities at Bloomberg. Before that he wrote about UK equities at AFX News. Before that he did not write about UK equities.

Contact Bryce Elder

Vodafone-Verizon: a $245bn solution — UPDATE 2

Hello to the City’s new watchdog, the Financial Conduct Authority. It may seem rude to make requests on your first working day but there’s a market rumour on which we would like some clarity. It involves what would be the biggest M&A deal ever, and it’s on your patch. Read more

Lundin Petroleum mum on Sinopec talk

Swedish oil company Lundin Petroleum declined to comment on rumours that it has been in talks to sell a significant equity stake to China Petrochemicals Corporation. Read more

UK PLC goes behind the paywall on Friday – UPDATE

So here’s the bad news.

WHAT’S NEW

RNS, the newswire used by most U.K. companies to distribute time-sensitive press releases, will require anyone wishing to receive announcements in real-time must register before Feb. 1, 2013. Anyone who fails to register will receive the press announcements after a 60-minute delay. There is no cost at this time to register.

 Read more

Information asymmetry, LSE edition – UPDATE

So the LSE had a technical b0rk this morning, which clogged the Regulatory News Service out for more than 90 minutes. The silo of corporate news was finally released at 8:37am.

No harm done though, right? Market integrity intact? Possibly not. Read more

Is someone circling Pacific Drilling?

Does US-listed Pacific Drilling look like a credible takeover target? We think it probably does, 0n balance, and we’d very much like to find out more. Read more

Inevitably, eventually, Autonomy

Paging Dr Mike Lynch. Your patient seems to be suffering some nasty post-op complications.

From Hewlett-Packard’s fourth-quarter results:

Fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2012 results include a non-cash goodwill and intangible asset impairment charge of $8.8 billion relating to the Autonomy business within the Software segment.

 Read more

Mizuho’s love triangle found 33% guilty

So they’re innocent. Really.

Yes, really. From Bloomberg:

Two girlfriends of former Mizuho International Plc investment banker Thomas Ammann were found not guilty of illegally trading on tips from him about Canon Inc.’s acquisition of OCE NV.

 Read more

Has FQM’s board approved a £3bn bid? Dunno — UPDATE

It’s 2:45am in Vancouver. Do you know where your investor relations department is?

Here’s this morning’s Daily MailRead more

Veolia, Suez and the dirty business of denials

Big news in RAW sewage this Saturday evening.

PARIS | Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:33pm BST (Reuters) – Veolia Environnement and Suez Environnement said on Saturday they were not working on a merger after Le Monde newspaper reported the two companies had held talks that fell apart over antitrust concerns. Read more

Ship of Theseus seeks flotation

Those who argue for a further relaxation of the LSE’s listing rules may want to note the following announcement:

Rangers, the Scottish football club, today announces its intention to seek Admission to the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange. Read more

Breaking: inevitable happens

The exact time of death can be recorded as 1:01pm BST. But, really, the pulse was lost long ago.

BAE Systems and EADS announced that they have decided to terminate their discussions. So should we blame another breakdown in eurozone relations? Or maybe, just maybe, BEADS wasn’t a merger worth saving. Read more

AstraZeneca and Forest Labs: a match made in sellside heaven

Pascal Soriot doesn’t start as AstraZeneca’s new CEO until Monday, yet everyone seems to know what he should do first: go shopping.

The problems soon to be faced by the former Genentech CEO are well known. AstraZeneca is heading towards the steepest of patent cliffs and has so far failed to find anything in the R&D labs that might cushion its fall. Drugs losing US patent protection by 2015 account for a more than a fifth of its sales, rising to nearly a third of sales by 2019. Recent launches of diabetes and heart disease pills have fallen short and what’s in the late-stage pipeline (arthritis, constipation and gout, since you ask) is considered quite likely to fail. Read more

Pinning the tale on a Monster

It’s been a lively few weeks for Monster Worldwide, the recruitment website.

For a company that’s been for sale since February, that’s quite a move. BofA Merrill Lynch and Stone Key Partners have been courting buyers for the past six months and final-round bids went in this week, according to Dealreporter (subscription required). Read more

Awaiting an African Barrick endgame [update] (update II)

Update (8:20am BST): it seems the usually-reliable sources were mostly reliable in this case, though there remains some uncertainty over whether they can tell one Chinese gold company from another.

Barrick Gold statementRead more

The mechanics of a water pump

Well, that was silly.

United Utilities share price chart Read more

Alexion targeted for Roche poach?

Remember Friday afternoon RAW?  Well, this is most definitely Friday afternoon RAW. Please read the disclaimer carefully.

 Read more

Autonomy: a postscript

Here’s something odd.

Related links:
Lynch mobbed – FT Alphaville
Revisiting Autonomy’s Iron Mountain deal – FT Alphaville Read more

GKP threatens to sue speculators (the bad kind)

“Live by the sword, die by the sword” does not translate into Kurdish, it seems.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP) Read more

EU plans to terminate Britain, return to Dark Ages – report

Sensational “news” via the Daily Express, which for the avoidance of doubt is a British national newspaper.

 Read more

Lloyds receives ‘multi-billion’ bid for publicity – report

According to the Evening Standard:

Lloyds Banking Group is understood to have received a multi-billion-pound takeover approach for Scottish Widows, its life assurance, pensions and savings business. Read more

What’s going on with PPR?

We don’t know. That’s the first thing to make clear.

In the hotel bars of Mayfair, not knowing what’s happening with PPR would appear to put us in the minority. Every quiet conversation of late has revolved around the Paris-based company, which owns Gucci Group along with a few retail and sportswear businesses that no-one seems to value much. Read more

GDF Sluggish pounces slothlike on International Procrastination

Behold, a bid approach! For International Power! From GDF Suez, its 70 per cent shareholder! This must come as a total surprise!

Except perhaps to readers of the FT (January 11) Read more

Pluthero and the art of altruism

It always warms the heart to see a failed executive give something back.

Not to shareholders, obviously. Shareholders are bitter types who won’t invite you to champagne receptions in White Cube. Better, instead, to aim your largesse at people largely unaffected by your failure. Read more

Rally Monkey, in the study, with a bearish engulfing candlestick

“Do not ignore this chart,” shouts Murray Gunn, Head of Divination and Rune Casting at HSBC, in his daily Short Cycle report. So here we are, pointedly not ignoring it.

Several lines of various colours. Read more

Temisys … eventually

“Thank you for depositing a $3bn merger rumour. An RNS will be credited to our investors in 24 hours.”

As the FT wrote on Thursday morning … Read more

Signal failure

One cannot fault the Chinese walls at Merrill Lynch, joint corporate broker to Invensys.

We have upgraded Invensys to a Buy, with a price target of 285p. While pressure on Controls will potentially continue in the short term and H2 Rail margins could be at risk, we think the valuation is now more than discounting the earnings risk. Read more

The West Shetland question

Exhibit A: the North Face of Ben Nevis, Scotland’s highest mountain.

 Read more

An experiment in Delta None

Just as correlation does not imply causation, this post should not imply usefulness. Consider it a bit of light frippery at the end of a rather challenging week for symmetrical trading.

Here’s how it works. We’ve drawn the graphs of a few securities into Google Correlate, which finds  search terms whose popularity matches the given trend over time. It is, in short, an automatic logical fallacy generator. Read more

Algos & Demons

Spoof Wars continues.

The Financial Services Authority (FSA) has obtained an interim High Court injunction preventing a number of companies and individuals from manipulating the market in UK-listed shares. The injunction also freezes the assets of the companies. Read more

28 Day-Traders Later

Games of spoof can be very expensive. Just ask Mike Ashley, who reportedly lost £200,000 when playing against his advisors at Merrill Lynch. Or ask Peter Beck, the Canadian day-trading evangelist who has lost £8m to the FSA.

These are, of course, different types of spoof. While Mr Ashley used the drinking game to settle a legal bill, Mr Beck’s SwiftTrade equities trading network was — in the FSA’s judgement — spoofing the market: Read more

@ITrade et al: like Tracy, I'm ex Bloomberg so can speak with some knowledge here. All these grumbles about cookie policies and the like are missing the point.

For the sake of comparison: I moderate comments on FTAV, which means I can check a list of users using a clunky off-grid bit of software that tells me their registered email address, subscriber status and the date they last logged on. Most reporters don't moderate, so won't have access to this login. It's also worth noting that I've looked at the user list perhaps half-a-dozen times in five years, and for no reason other than to check on suspected sock puppets.

While at Bloomberg I used UUID (and related functions mining user data) dozens of times a day. It was hardwired into the newsroom process. Of course, as a lowly reporter, you couldn't look at people's IMs or MSGs. All could do was check /how/ individual users were using their terminals. The key here is that every single person in the organisation could access this information instantly. Checking it and using it were built into the workflow process. If there's a conflict of interest, that's where it lies.

Comment on: How to snoop on your customers, the Bloomberg way

@SouthSea, Mr Green: somehow, you've confused "knowing your address" with "looking in your window."
@Sven: http://www.ft.com/cookiepolicy

Comment on: How to snoop on your customers, the Bloomberg way

@Fiatscpetic: I'm much too ignorant on the subject to be snarky, so perhaps I qualify. To me, it looks like speculators have seized upon a fiendishly clever structure of trading what are basically contraband Disney Dollars, which has exposed huge problems with its scalability, efficiency, liquidity and transparency of price discovery. Perhaps these problems are teething troubles or perhaps they are systemic limitations that mean Bitcoin is fated to (at best) go back to being a way to trade contraband Disney Dollars. I don't know which it'll be because, unlike everyone else, I'm not an expert.

Comment on: #000000 Wednesday

@ndwade: could you explain to inexperts such as myself what makes it a "flash crash type event" as opposed to a "crash type event"? I ask because, at the time of writing, the sudden and strong buying that came in below $150 seems to have resulted in a price of about $130.

Comment on: #000000 Wednesday

@RuminationsOn: Don't think that's plausible. Takeover Panel Rule 2.8.3 is specific about concert parties abiding by the same restrictions, including subsequently. ( http://www.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/code.pdf ).

For a bit more context on the VZ story, see: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2013-04-03/

Comment on: Vodafone-Verizon: a $245bn solution -- UPDATE 2

@Justin: probably. Though Monday mornings during half term often feel longer.

Comment on: US Markets Live special JPM Whale edition

Plausibly. But can't see why.

Comment on: Markets Live: Wednesday, 30th January, 2013

Warning: tech's broken on the left again.

Comment on: Markets Live: Wednesday, 30th January, 2013

Blackstone has noted the recent press speculation regarding penguins.

The Board of Blackstone confirms that it has been approached by several interested parties and preliminary discussions are being held in this regard. However, these discussions are at a very early stage and may or may not lead to penguins.

The Board will make a further announcement as appropriate.

Comment on: Caption contest! PE penguin edition