Bryce Elder

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Bryce is a sporadic Alphaville contributor and has been the FT’s UK equities reporter since 2008. Before that he wrote about UK equities at Morningstar. Before that he wrote about UK equities at The Times. Before that he wrote about UK equities at Bloomberg. Before that he wrote about UK equities at AFX News. Before that he did not write about UK equities.

Earth to investors: G4S has not restated earnings — Update

There are times when the hoax is so elaborate, you have to look beyond the attempted deception and admire the handiwork.

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Shire-AbbVie: arbitrage against the machine

Cold feet or negotiation tactic? No one knows. And the people prepared to guess were 25 per cent wrong about Shire’s price this time yesterday, so their views should be taken with a degree of caution.

Nevertheless, here are the basics on the potential collapse of Abbvie’s $54bn takeover of the UK drugmaker.

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Welcoming The People’s Operator, a £100m+ MVNO

No — we don’t yet have the prospectus for The People’s Operator, a mobile firm that has announced plans to list on Aim with a reported market value of more than £100m. But we do have its most recent accounts, which make it possible to back engineer what the prospectus might say. Read more

The muppet market in numbers

For disappointment, dashed hopes, false dawns, broken promises, under-delivery and consistently dolorous failure, there’s little to match Aim. London’s junior market has proved time and again to be a money pit. Read more

No, Betfair has not just called the Scottish Referendum

Doing the rounds on Twitter this afternoon ….

Betfair advert

The important word there is “sportsbook”.

Betfair’s exchange has become a much-watched sentiment indicator for the Scottish vote. This is where gamblers bet against each other directly and the house extracts a rake for providing the market. At pixel time, £8.8m has been matched on the punter-to-punter exchange. Read more

HFTs dark materials

Fans of schadenfreude may enjoy the following press release from Barclays, dated February 26, 2013, to publicise that …

Barclays LX now #2 US dark pool

LX is what Eric Schneiderman, the US state attorney-general, describes as a “dark pool full of predators – there at Barclays’ invitation”. His lawsuit alleges that Barclays was putting high-frequency traders in front of institutional investors, while sending bumf to the institutions that claimed the HFTs were being weeded out. Read more

Matchmaking Shire, again

We believe an AGN bid for SHPG is imminent and more attractive than VRX’s proposal.

So says John T. Boris, a managing director at SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. His is not a new idea. Shire has long been seen the obvious poison pill for Allergan, the Botox maker, which could use more bulk to fight off a $53bn hostile approach from Valeant. Read more

Carried out

That’s JP Morgan Cazenove repeating its 290p target on Just Eat, a fast food delivery website it co-floated in April for 260p apiece.

Wait … what’s that about a correction? Read more

About that AstraZeneca bid defence …

The nationalistic bluster around AstraPfizica remains blustery. Here, for example, is London Mayor Boris Johnson:

It would be very important to establish that Pfizer is genuinely committed to R&D in this country. I believe in principle that we should have an open system of markets in this country, but when I look at something like AstraZeneca and I look at an organization of that scale, of its relative importance to the UK economy, the sheer percentage of its money that goes into R&D, I think it is of great importance to Britain.

With that in mind, it’s worth taking a closer look at the experimental drug pipeline AstraZeneca has highlighted in its defence statement. These are the drugs that management expects to deliver an incremental $19bn of sales from 2017 to 2023, equivalent to 10 per cent revenue growth per annum: Read more

On the Blinkx — Update

At pixel time we still await Blinkx’s official response to allegations of questionable practices made by Benjamin Edelman, an associate professor at Harvard Business School and a self-proclaimed sheriff of the internet advertising industry. Blinkx shares traded down as much as 51.6 per cent on the claims, knocking about £400m off its market value.

What we do have is a note from Citigroup, Blinkx’s joint house broker. In the interests of market stability we repeat it in full below, albeit with minimal fiskingRead more

AstraZeneca said to eye Forest Labs bid

What’s been lighting a fire under Forest Laboratories?

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Premature dissemination, Bloomberg style

Bloomberg News prides itself on market-moving scoops. Today its reporters excelled themselves, getting Citigroup’s Q3 earnings out a full 29 minutes before they were due.

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Blackberry, bricked

Blackberry’s logo (below) resembles nothing as much as a hail of seven silver bullets. It appears the gun has been pointing the wrong way.

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An intriguing Delaware filing

NHI Wind Read more

Vodamort and the Chamber of Secrets

Today marked the rarest of events: a Vodafone statement that directly references its joint venture partner.

The last time we had a mention of Verizon Communications outside the boilerplate on a Vodafone stock market announcement was back in 2007, when Arun Sarin was bounced (by this blog) into denying the existence of Project Vulture. It seems that Verizon, like Lord Voldemort, shall not be named. Read more

Ballmer at Microsoft: an annotated shareprice

Mouse over…

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Bidders said to circle Zoltek

Friday afternoon RAW klaxon. Buyer beware. Usual wealth warnings apply.

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Unconventional stimulus, the Bloomberg way

Bloomberg Businessweek cover

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Vodafone-Verizon: a $245bn solution — UPDATE 2

Hello to the City’s new watchdog, the Financial Conduct Authority. It may seem rude to make requests on your first working day but there’s a market rumour on which we would like some clarity. It involves what would be the biggest M&A deal ever, and it’s on your patch. Read more

Lundin Petroleum mum on Sinopec talk

Swedish oil company Lundin Petroleum declined to comment on rumours that it has been in talks to sell a significant equity stake to China Petrochemicals Corporation. Read more

UK PLC goes behind the paywall on Friday – UPDATE

So here’s the bad news.


RNS, the newswire used by most U.K. companies to distribute time-sensitive press releases, will require anyone wishing to receive announcements in real-time must register before Feb. 1, 2013. Anyone who fails to register will receive the press announcements after a 60-minute delay. There is no cost at this time to register.

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Information asymmetry, LSE edition – UPDATE

So the LSE had a technical b0rk this morning, which clogged the Regulatory News Service out for more than 90 minutes. The silo of corporate news was finally released at 8:37am.

No harm done though, right? Market integrity intact? Possibly not. Read more

Is someone circling Pacific Drilling?

Does US-listed Pacific Drilling look like a credible takeover target? We think it probably does, 0n balance, and we’d very much like to find out more. Read more

Inevitably, eventually, Autonomy

Paging Dr Mike Lynch. Your patient seems to be suffering some nasty post-op complications.

From Hewlett-Packard’s fourth-quarter results:

Fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2012 results include a non-cash goodwill and intangible asset impairment charge of $8.8 billion relating to the Autonomy business within the Software segment.

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Mizuho’s love triangle found 33% guilty

So they’re innocent. Really.

Yes, really. From Bloomberg:

Two girlfriends of former Mizuho International Plc investment banker Thomas Ammann were found not guilty of illegally trading on tips from him about Canon Inc.’s acquisition of OCE NV.

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Has FQM’s board approved a £3bn bid? Dunno — UPDATE

It’s 2:45am in Vancouver. Do you know where your investor relations department is?

Here’s this morning’s Daily MailRead more

Veolia, Suez and the dirty business of denials

Big news in RAW sewage this Saturday evening.

PARIS | Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:33pm BST (Reuters) – Veolia Environnement and Suez Environnement said on Saturday they were not working on a merger after Le Monde newspaper reported the two companies had held talks that fell apart over antitrust concerns. Read more

Ship of Theseus seeks flotation

Those who argue for a further relaxation of the LSE’s listing rules may want to note the following announcement:

Rangers, the Scottish football club, today announces its intention to seek Admission to the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange. Read more

Breaking: inevitable happens

The exact time of death can be recorded as 1:01pm BST. But, really, the pulse was lost long ago.

BAE Systems and EADS announced that they have decided to terminate their discussions. So should we blame another breakdown in eurozone relations? Or maybe, just maybe, BEADS wasn’t a merger worth saving. Read more

AstraZeneca and Forest Labs: a match made in sellside heaven

Pascal Soriot doesn’t start as AstraZeneca’s new CEO until Monday, yet everyone seems to know what he should do first: go shopping.

The problems soon to be faced by the former Genentech CEO are well known. AstraZeneca is heading towards the steepest of patent cliffs and has so far failed to find anything in the R&D labs that might cushion its fall. Drugs losing US patent protection by 2015 account for a more than a fifth of its sales, rising to nearly a third of sales by 2019. Recent launches of diabetes and heart disease pills have fallen short and what’s in the late-stage pipeline (arthritis, constipation and gout, since you ask) is considered quite likely to fail. Read more