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’China as currency manipulator: reality check, please
Ah, Yuan revaluation worriers: name-calling won’t win the argument for you. But sage advice from a certain investment bank just might.
Monday brought the sound and fury of a letter from 130 U.S. Representatives to the Treasury demanding that it brand China as a ‘currency manipulator’.
Renminbi rumours
The Chinese-currency rumour mill is “churning overtime” traders noted on Friday, as forward renminbi contracts headed towards their biggest weekly gain in two months.
Citi traders said on Friday morning that much speculation about a weekend (upwards) revaluation of the reniminbi brought more heavy selling interest.
Releasing the renminbi for Asia
Nomura has an ambitious big-think analysis paper out on getting Asia’s strident recovery through the medium term, particularly via capital markets reform. Check the Long Room for the full report, by John Lllewellyn and Lavinia Santovetti.
Deep 2010 downturn could yet trigger trade war and yuan devaluation
The perfect riposte to Monday’s equity market rally has arrived: the latest Global Strategy Weekly from Soc Gen’s Albert Edwards.
And while the headline rather gives things away, here are some selected highlights for all the bears out there.
Chinese yuan appreciation pressure mounts
Chinese industrial output in October accelerated at its fastest rate in seven months, according to figures released on Wednesday.
Analysts are now cautioning that sort of rebound will only heighten pressure on China to appreciate its currency versus the US dollar as exports rebound and domestic focus once again is forced to turn to inflation.
The real money supply, globally
By which we mean the folding stuff (and coins) issued in 137 countries. Compound annual growth in the real money supply since 1971 is 9.09 per cent, according to Dollardaze.org, where Mike Hewitt has been crunching the numbers:
What the ‘Grande Latte index’ suggests about the yuan
Reuters reporter Simon Rabinovitch, taking a page out of the Economist’s playbook, has introduced the “Grande Latte index” (with data, methodology and footnotes) in an attempt to answer a thorny econo-philosophical question:
No Mr. Bond, I expect you to die
As if the dollar needed any more rattling on Tuesday (chart courtesy of CNBC):
We now hear via Caijing Magazine that China is planning to sell up to 6bn worth of yuan-denominated sovereign bonds in Hong Kong – the first sovereign sale of its kind in an offshore market.
Who wants to be a dollar trillionaire?
UBS asked an audience of more than 80 institutions with collective assets under management of about $5,500bn:
Related link:
Russia’s win win – FT Alphaville
Yuan-ted: US renminbi bonds
Well, US Treasury sec Tim Geithner’s bond-selling trip to China certainly paid off…
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A top Chinese banker on Sunday called on the U.S. government and the World Bank to sell yuan-denominated bonds in Hong Kong and Shanghai to encourage the development of debt markets in those centers and to promote the yuan as a major international currency.
SDRs, China and UK commercial real estate
Jim O’Neil, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs, writes on China and the yuan in Thursday’s Telegraph:
I’ve concluded that Mr Zhou is telling us that China is closer than many think to letting the yuan become part of the SDR.
Invoice: You owe us RMB
News from China’s regional cities rarely makes our radar, but this is an exception.
BEIJING, April 8 (Reuters) – China took a step towards using the yuan to settle trade with Hong Kong and some other neighbouring trade partners on Wednesday,
The wisdom of China’s online crowds
HT to Standard Chartered for the title of this post and the research.
The bank’s China team are looking at Google Trends as an indicator of the country’s consumer appetite.
It’s not scientific per se (only 23 per cent of China’s population is online and of those only about 27 per cent use Google as a search engine) but it is interesting.
The perfect storm
A common theme is that, notwithstanding the ongoing banking crisis, the world’s governments have finally got a grip on the task in hand. Although a deep and protracted recession looks all but unavoidable,