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IMF wakes up to oil price rises…
… and not a moment too soon.
It’s been quite a couple of days for oil prices, with front month WTI crude hitting $110 on Thursday for the first time in more than two years:
Why? Take your pick:
Is oil about to have a physical reality check?
BNP Paribas’ Harry Tchilinguirian has put out a very interesting oil note on Wednesday.
First, the bank has revised its fourth quarter 2009 WTI price forecast to $77 per barrel versus $66 per barrel previously,
Goldman still bullish on crude (even in the face of weakness)
WTI crude fell through significant support on Thursday, having traded firmly range-bound since the beginning of August.
The weak technicals and bearish fundamentals, however, are not going to dampen Goldman Sachs’s bullish outlook.
More weirdness in the UNG
The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) exchange-traded continues to mystify, this time by cutting positions over the last few days just when you would expect it not t0: that is, the day that natural gas futures soared by 8.43 per cent (see below chart).
Strange things still afoot in natural gas
Stephen Schork, author of energy industry newsletter The Schork Report, has been pondering long and hard about the subject of natural gas on Tuesday.
You see, the historic correlations appear to be a little out of whack.
The dollar/oil relationship, Goldman edition
We’ve been watching the reemergence of the dollar/oil relationship here on FT Alphaville for the last few weeks. In that time frame oil has appeared consistently to ignore fundamentals in favour of an inverse relationship with the dollar.
United States Oil Fund, redux
We noted on Monday to what degree the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF had reduced its positions in WTI front-month futures since February and how that has coincided with a not disproportionate build-up in positions of the United States Natural Gas fund (UNG),
Rig counts still falling
In more bearish news for the oil market, rig counts as compiled by Baker Hughes are continuing to fall across the world, implying a radical investment pullback in future production — ultimately a bullish factor further down the line.