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’Trade the weather, not consensus?
Just an idea, of course.
But it comes via JPMorgan’s Seamus Mac Gorain, and it’s part of a 12-page study covering more than a decade of intraday trading data around big economic releases.
Here’s his thinking:
Stock up on bread now— at least until it rains again
The most well-known wheat crisis to date is the 1972 “Great Grain Robbery,” in which the Soviet Union combated a catastrophic drought that depleted their wheat supply by buying all the available surplus of wheat in the United States. This Soviet spending spree triggered food price hikes worldwide.
Macondo, in historical Hollywood context
In case you were curious about how BP’s stricken Macondo well currently stacks up to other historical oil spills, here’s a useful graphic from Société Générale, putting it all in context:
So not quite the record flow rates struck by gushing oil wells in the first Gulf War,
Falling UK house prices – the next big thing?
A surprise drop in UK house prices in February – the first decline in 10 months – has left us asking a familiar question.
Was it just the bad weather or is this the start of a new trend?
From Nationwide,
Crying over hot air
Last week was an interesting one for commodities reporting.
In short, the mainstream press discovered the UK natural gas market. And while it’s very nice that they should care so much about a usually under-reported market (bar end-user price-hikes),
Literally frozen orange juice
A few days into the new year and a key observation that can already be made in the west is that it’s cold; Colder than usual, in many parts of the US and Europe.
Weather-affected commodities are consequently staging a bit of a rally.
Is soppy cotton a buy?
Cotton futures have been storming ahead since March this year, echoing bullish moves in many other commodities on prospects of a global recovery:
But with weather conditions still unfavourable for
The perils of a flat WTI curve and a cold winter
Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix makes a good point on Friday regarding the recent flattening of the contango and fall in crude prices (our emphasis):
Crude oil prices have been dropping like a rock for the last two days but this will do nothing to improve physical demand for it as the product cracks have not improved and the contango not widened either.
US energy braced for hurricane pressure
Rising reinsurance rates and falling capacity have left some insurers and US energy producers with more to fear than in past years as the Gulf of Mexico hurricane season begins on Monday, the FT reported.
Snow banker
Sits by RBC,
Liquidity is frozen,
So are his assets.
Snow! (the economic impact)
Yes, fun and snow balls aside, there is officially a serious angle to Monday’s epic snowfalls in the UK.
Don’t believe us? Here’s what Howard Archer, UK economist at IHS Global Insight, has to say about the matter.
Orascom in talks over stake in parent
Orascom Telecom, the Cairo-based mobile operator, said it was not up for sale but confirmed that talks were continuing about a potential investment by private equity in its parent company, Weather Investments.
Blackstone, Apax, chase Weather
Private equity firms Blackstone and Apax Partners are front-runners to buy a stake in telecom holding company Weather Investments, controlled by Egyptian billionaire Naguib Sawiris, reports the Wall Street Journal.