RSS feedUK GDP
’“Stagnation beckons” for the UK
Mervyn King was right: this will be worse than the 1930s.
At least that’s the message from a depressing summary of the UK economy by Citigroup’s Michael Saunders and Ann O’Kelly, who argue that this recession-recovery cycle will be worse than after the Great Crash.
UK GDP: a stats oddity
There is a lot of debate on whether the market is actually getting a decent picture of the UK economy at the moment — typified by the latest GDP release, though there’s also construction output and all sorts of indicators playing up and becoming highly volatile.
On the brink of a British double-dip
Dramatic, we know. But the ONS has confirmed the economy grew only 0.5 per cent in 2011′s first quarter after its 0.5 per cent fall in 2010′s last three months, and technically…
…That’s also already confirming a double-dip in GDP in absolute terms over the period,
Putting the ‘stag’ in stagflation
Abstracting from the snow
We have an economy
On a plateau
That’s the (Haiku-ised) verdict of Joe Grice, chief economist of the Office of National Statistics, on Wednesday’s UK GDP release.
Down 0.5 per cent one quarter,
Forecasting the end of fast growth
Fast economic growth, like all good things, must end. But when?
An NBER working paper by Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin released on Monday uses data from 1957 through 2007 to suggest when and why slowdowns occur in fast-growing economies.
“Surprises” in the UK national account data
There wasn’t a lot of sunshine to melt the avalanche of UK economic data released on Tuesday.
Revised UK Q4 GDP (-0.5 per cent rather than -0.6 per cent) and the UK Q4 current account deficit (-2.9 per cent compared to -2.4 per cent in Q3) came as little surprise.
A sudden rise in Britain’s debt-to-GDP figures? Blame the banks
Well, this took a while.
From the Office for National Statistics and with a H/T to Ian Fraser:
The Office for National Statistics and HM Treasury jointly publishes monthly estimates of the Public Sector Finances (PSF).
Ugly UK GDP figures
Fresh off the wires — a suggestive double-dip GDP figure for the UK:
Blaming the weather. How very British.
The unsinkable, unfalsifiable HMS QE2
Did you hear the one about the superliner that squeezed under a Danish bridge with just an inch and half to spare?
It’s getting that way with HMS QE2.
Exhibit A — More decent UK data in the shape of a manufacturing PMI,
Blast off – UK GDP rocket
And it was RBS analysts wot won it.
Economic growth in the third quarter chewed up consensus forecasts and spat them out on Tuesday — recording 0.8 per cent above a predicted 0.4 per cent.
Just ignore all those austerity clouds,
Mr Bean was right
Don’t save, spend, Bank of England official Charles Bean advised Britain on Monday, telling Channel 4 News that low interest rates made any other choice rather useless.
‘No problem at all, my dear Bean,’ said Britain.
UK GDP, livin’ in the moment
Again with the outperforming UK second-quarter GDP numbers.
The Office for National Statistics revised last month’s already shockingly good data upward on Friday.
From the ONS release:
GDP increased by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2010,
UK GDP revised…
… but not by much.
From Reuters on Wednesday:
And in pictorial form:
All of which means those economists who rubbished the initial reading have still got egg on their face.
Still,
GDP reaction: Sterling tumbles, Gilts rally, but FTSE fine
Oh dear, oh dear.
The market reaction after Friday’s UK GDP data:
Sterling gets hammered against the dollar:
… and against the euro:
The 10-year gilt yield falls sharply:
…