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’G.R.I.M. markets
Forget douple dip. What we’re really facing for the next couple of years are G.R.I.M markets – Growth Really Is Mediocre (geddit).
That’s the view of Graham Secker, Teun Draaisma’s successor at Morgan Stanley,
Draaisma turns bullish
Morgan Stanley strategist Teun Draaisma has thrown in the towel and closed his bearish underweight position on European equities.
Draaisma has been bearish since late January, when he downgraded in the expectation of a 10-15 per cent fall in stock prices.
The equity market rally is nearing its end
That’s the view of Morgan Stanley’s Teun Draaisma, who reckons the much feared tightening is about to begin in earnest.
The trigger according to the strategist will be a strong US payroll reading on Friday and a change in Federal Reserve language at its meeting later this month.
Time for the tin hat?
Remember this?
That was the ‘Santa rally’ and it has err…. gone.
In fact this is now the biggest setback for the UK market since the rally took hold last March:
China tightening fears,
Teun’s tightening tactics
Teun Draaisma’s latest is a veritable treatise of tightening threats.
In it, Morgan Stanley’s chief European strategist warns of the impending switch from stimulus-overload to stimulus-withdrawal — something he’s mentioned before but,
[Outlook 2010] The deluge begins
And so it begins – strategists at the big investment banks are starting to publish their 2010 forecasts.
Morgan Stanley duo Graham Secker and Teun Draaisma were quick on the draw with a pretty bearish set of predictions for the year ahead.
Great, great, under-expectations:What the pundits say
Following FT Alphaville’s various posts this week on the growing debate about the equity market recovery – including Wednesday’s insights from The Pragmatic Capitalist and this from Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg – Lex on Thursday notes the recent rise in “contrarian measures”
Bear market not over – sell today
Perhaps Morgan Stanley have been listening to FT Alphaville’s Paul Murphy, because the bank has moved “underweight” of European equities. (Their new asset allocation is +5 per cent cash, neutral bonds and -5 per cent equities).
Japan ‘doesn’t look that bad’, really…
Lo, Japan no longer “looks that bad”, according to Paul Krugman, in an entry on his blog headlined “Japan reconsidered:
For a decade or so Japan’s lost decade has been the great bugaboo of modern macroeconomics.
Japan until further notice
Teun Draaisma has given up. Given up predicting the end of this bear market, that is.
In his latest note, titled ‘Japan Until Further Notice’, the Morgan Stanley strategist says we should all stop trying to guess the next turn of the market and instead focus on how this downturn might end.
Draaisma the super bull
Just a quick note — Morgan Stanley strategist Teun Draaisma has got a “full house” buy signal from the four key indicators he follows, covering “Valuation, Capitulation, Risk, Fundamentals.”
The would appear to be the first full house indicator since Draaisma’s rather famous “Sell,
Pink Picks: Expert views of financial crises and bailout machinations
Comment, analysis and other offerings from Wednesday’s FT,
The experts’ view: Faber, Draaisma, Roche, Paulsen, Bond, Wieting
After the collapse of the US bail-out plan in Washington, six experts take stock and look at the implications.
For the Great Rotate we must wait, says Draaisma
Has the time arrived to sell momentum and buy value? Or, more prosaically, has the time arrived to sell energy and mining and buy back into banks?
We’ve been here before, of course. Fidelity’s Anthony Bolton was widely quoted back in May when he said that he thought the worst of the Crunch was over and that at some point it would be sensible to switch from commodities to financials.
How to survive stagflation
Chart(s) of the day – Morgan Stanley’s stagflation matrix:
From the MS asset allocation committee, which includes FT Alphaville favourites Stephen Jen and Teun Draaisma:
Inflation risks plague all portfolios.
Bear or Superbear? The new Draaisma-land
Beyond the call of duty!
Apart from analyzing valuations, interest rates, and growth, the author has also read all the daily Wall Street Journals in the four months surrounding the identified bear market bottoms…
Draaisma: “The Bear Market Rally is Over”
Is Morgan Stanley’s equity strategist just unimpressed with the Bank of England’s efforts at a rescue package?
The second half of the bear market rally turned out to be rather shortlived, and Teun Draaisma is calling the top:
Draaisma: “2008 the Best Period for Shorting Since 2002″
Expecting/hoping for a pic of the Morgan Stanley strategist in his beach wear? So were we.
Instead, we’ve got a series of stock screening tools identifying European companies Teun Draaisma thinks investors should either short or avoid.
Welcome back to Draaisma-land
While everyone else is worried about calling the bottom, Morgan Stanley’s Teun Draaisma is worried about calling the top – of the bear market rally.
The good news is it’s not over yet. But adds the strategist,
Draaisma – ‘Stop fighting the Fed…Buy quality credit’
Well, to be precise, Morgan Stanley strategist Teun Draaisma and his team are “turning strategically positive on higher-quality credit”:
There is now deep value in the sector for investors with a medium-term investment horizon.
Draaisma: stand by for a bear market rally
Even when things are glum, Morgan Stanley former super-bull Teun Draaisma is unreformed. In his latest note, the MS equities man is starting to grow weary of all that bearishness since November.
Strategically,
A picture of Draaisma’s shorts…
Yes. Quite literally. Here’s a snap of the screened short candidates mailed out on Monday by Morgan Stanley’s European equity strategy team, headed by the hyper-active Teun Draaisma.
For what it’s worth,
Draaisma speaks: “That’s enough for now”
We don’t want to kick off some kind of cult of the outsized ego – but it is our duty to alert readers to the fact that Teun Draaisma, head of Morgan Stanley’s European equity strategy team, has a new stance.
Morgan Stanley’s ‘recovering bull’
Catholic converts, ex-smokers, Morgan Stanley strategists…They all share certain a zealousness – be it over religion, nicotine or the altogether more contentious issue of deciding whether markets are going down or up.
Sage of Morgan Stanley calls time on equities
The Morgan Stanley equities strategist who has twice in five months correctly called turns in the stock market on Monday dropped his bullish message, warning that the growing credit crunch could lead to a recession.
[Draaisma's big questions] - III
Question 3 – Decoupling or not?
How isolated can certain parts of the global economy – such as emerging markets – be? This decade’s bull market is made in China and will probably end in China too. While we are all busy quantifying the US slowdown and its impact on the rest of the world,
[Draaisma's big questions] - II
Question 2 – Traction or not?
As inflation is well contained according to most statistics, central banks have the leeway to cut rates, and government bond yields are falling in general – US 10 year bond yields are down some 100 bp in the last few months.
[Draaisma's big questions] - I
Question 1 – Big economic impact or not?
The logic is simple. US consumers have a negative savings rate and have long depended on ever rising asset prices. These asset prices have stopped rising – real estate and possibly equities,
Teun Draaisma – the unruffled man
Some might have expected Morgan Stanley’s European strategist – aka the Super Bull – to now row back from his prediction of the coming equity nirvana. What, with the decapitated heads of Wall Street royalty rolling in the gutter – and even the MS banking team predicting contagion from subprime to all things consumer.
More from Draaisma on the coming irrationality
Having said Sell, Sell, Sell back in June, and then Buy Buy Buy in mid-August, Morgan Stanley’s SuperBull, European equities strategist Teun Draaisma, already knows when he’ll be turning seller again.
In a note to clients dispatched on Monday,