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’[Gavyn Davies] The good, the bad and the ugly
At Fulcrum, we scan the behaviour of asset markets each week to make sure that we are not missing what the markets are trying to tell us. It is surprising how often this forces us to focus on a pattern of developments which we might otherwise overlook.
A warning signal from the Bund/Treasury spread
This sounds a bit disconcerting from Charlie Diebel at Lloyds TSB on Wednesday:
One of our key comparative metrics is flashing Red this morning and that is in the 10yr Bund/T-Note spread. Our models have
At the foothills of a gold parabola
From the FT’s global market overview on Thursday:
Commodities. Another day, another nominal record for gold, whose chart looks to be entering the foothills of the parabola. The precious metal has hit a fresh peak of $1,364.6 as ratcheting up of the forex spat rhetoric adds to the worry about the debasement of currencies.
Steampunk chartism
Hindenburg Omens are for kids. Here’s a tip of the top hat to Barry Ritholtz for unearthing this nineteenth-century great-grand-daddy among technical cycles:
(Click to enlarge)
That’s by one George Tritch.
Hindenburg sighted…
The Death Cross. The Bearish Abandoned Baby. The Hindenburg Omen.
Who names these ominous technical indicators?
On Thursday the third of those examples — named after the airship disaster of 1937 — reared its head.
The tech analysis party poopers
Step forward Ben Marshall, Rochester Cahan and Jared Cahan, from Massey University, New Zealand.
In the most polite and professional terms, these three academics have been telling people for some time now that using purely technical rules to trade does not add any value beyond what might be expected by chance.
Is that a buy from the Coppock indicator?
Mike Lenhoff, chief strategist and head of research at Brewin Dolphin Securities, draws our attention to the “Coppock indicator” in one of his latest posts on the London Stock Exchange website.
As Lenhoff points out,
Annals of easy targets: Bloomberg goes after technical analysis
Bloomberg is running an interesting article on the ‘failings’ of technical analysis. Here’s an extract.
Stock Charts Fail Forecast Test in Complete S&P Miss
May 4 (Bloomberg) — John Bollinger, inventor of the “Bollinger bands”