RSS feedsovereign ratings
’Scotland’s unsolicited non-rating
Posted by Kate Mackenzie on Feb 06 09:34. Comment.We couldn’t help but notice that the major ratings agencies were terribly coy about Scotland.
From the FT:
The three leading credit rating agencies – Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch – indicated an independent Scotland would not automatically inherit the UK’s top-notch rating. More…
Even the good times will be bad for EU, says Moody’s
Posted by Kate Mackenzie on Nov 28 08:25. Comment.Rise and shine, EU economies! Yes, all of you; not just the eurozone. Moody’s is officially taking very seriously the prospect of multiple defaults and a eurozone break-up, and has a pointed message for EU leaders. More…
The return of AAA US political risk
Posted by John McDermott on Nov 01 13:37. Comment.We’re a day late to warn about the slobbering resuscitation of jaded poltergeists returning to chomp chunks out of the vile jellies of our minds…
… but better late than never: US budget politics More…
US in possible downgrade encore shock
Posted by Kate Mackenzie on Oct 24 12:41. Comment.Eurozone crisis-ed out? Here is a refreshingly simple distraction: US sovereign ratings!
The “not-so-super” Deficit Commission is very unlikely to come up with a credible deficit reduction plan. The committee is more divided than the overall Congress. More…
A pox on all your AAA houses
Posted by Kate Mackenzie on Oct 21 08:31. Comment.No doubt it’s just a coincidence that S&P published new recession scenarios for the eurozone on the same day Brussels began talking about banning sovereign ratings on countries undergoing bail-outs… More…
Moody’s is peering at France’s Aaa outlook
Posted by Kate Mackenzie on Oct 17 23:58. Comment.Moody’s has published its annual credit report on France, saying while the economy is robust, its “government debt metrics” are now among the weakest of its Aaa peers. It goes on to say the stable outlook for the country’s rating is coming under pressure from the potential for need to provide additional support to other European sovereigns or to its own banking system. More…
Sovereign ratings correlation like it’s the 1990s
Posted by Joseph Cotterill on Oct 10 14:55. Comment.It’s not often you see the world’s third-largest issuer of sovereign debt downgraded by no fewer than three notches overnight.
Nor is it very often that you see ratings agencies cut Italy and Spain, More…
Moody’s lowers Japan’s rating to Aa3
Posted by Kate Mackenzie on Aug 24 01:05. Comment.Full statement follows:
Moody’s lowers Japan’s government rating to Aa3; outlook stable
Singapore, August 24, 2011 — Moody’s Investors Service today lowered the
Government of Japan’s rating to Aa3 from Aa2, More…
Debt ratings, by demographics
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Aug 03 12:45. Comment.I propose a different [ratings] modeling approach for advanced economies that focuses on their primary risk factor: the impact of population aging on social insurance spending. The approach leverages the wealth of budget, More…
A safe haven for repos
Posted by Kate Mackenzie on Aug 01 08:50. Comment.The deal on the US debt ceiling limit reached last night still leaves several questions — excluding whether it will actually pass in time to avoid some kind of default.
Assuming it does pass, though, More…
Alternatives to the USAAA – there’s not much
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jul 27 11:55. Comment.Still seeking something else to buy should the US be downgraded after its debt ceiling folly?
The world’s pool of AAA-rated material is rapidly dwindling, and any destruction of the US triple-A will mean it shrinks even further. More…
Leaky (sovereign ratings) buckets
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jul 21 12:52. Comment.The written and oral evidence from the House of Lords inquiry into rating agencies is a veritable goldmine of information. Including the nitty gritty of how rating changes are made and disseminated.
On that note, More…
The importance of being indexed
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jul 19 09:38. Comment.Markit’s iBoxx. Barclays government bond indices. Citigroup’s world government bond index.
Rarely do the ins-and-outs of bond indices receive enough attention when it comes to the sovereign debt crisis. More…
S&P puts US on Creditwatch ‘with negative implications’
Posted by Kate Mackenzie on Jul 15 08:32. Comment.…”there is at least a one-in-two likelihood that we could lower the long-term rating on the U.S. within the next 90 days.”
United States of America ‘AAA/A-1+’ Ratings
Placed On CreditWatch Negative On Rising
Risk Of Policy Stalemate
Overview
· Standard & More…
What price an AAA-downgrade?
Posted by John McDermott on Jun 27 12:26. Comment.The US has already received its verbal warning.
Now here’s its numerical one. From Monday’s FT:
Threat of $100bn hit if US top rating lost
Investors in the US government bond market could face losses of up to $100bn if the largest economy loses its triple A rating, More…
Greece lightning
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jun 02 09:54. Comment.If you thought those Greek downgrades were flying thick and fast, you’d be right. According to Evolution’s Brian Barry, Greek ratings are falling about 30 times the average rate:
Moody’s downgrades Greece to Caa1, sees even chance of default
Posted by John McDermott on Jun 01 20:34. Comment.The slope just got slippier. Here’s the rating summary released by Moody’s on Wednesday evening (emphasis ours):
Moody’s Investors Service has today downgraded Greece’s local and foreign currency bond ratings to Caa1 from B1, More…
Sovereign ratings still relevant – but mostly when they go negative
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jun 01 11:25. Comment.Just in case you were wondering.
Bond markets still react to sovereign ratings announcements, though they tend to react more when the rating agencies say something negative. That’s the conclusion of a new working paper from the European Central Bank, More…
Machine-readable sovereign downgrades are here
Posted by Tracy Alloway on May 16 14:21. Comment.Here’s how those macro-obsessed markets are helping to reshape market technology:
New York, NY – May 16, 2011 – Selerity, a provider of real-time event data solutions for the financial services industry announced today an agreement with Standard & More…
Losing my (AAA) religion
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Apr 19 09:25. Comment.Alright, it’s waaayyy premature. But we thought we’d show the below — from RBC in response to Monday’s S&P action — showing change in 10-year bond yields after losing a triple-A:
Bond buyback irony in Europe
Posted by Joseph Cotterill on Mar 24 13:10. Comment.Strange days when a specialist in frontier market sovereigns has the most convincing advice on how to fix the western European ones…
We’ve often delved — at length — into the mechanics of using bond buybacks to achieve debt reduction for the eurozone periphery. More…
Another Egypt downgrade – S&P cuts to BB
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Feb 01 10:18. Comment.Just when things were beginning to look up for Egypt…
… Standard & Poor’s has followed Moody’s and downgraded the country’s ratings.
The statement, with our highlights, below:
Rating Action On Feb. More…
Moody’s downgrades Egypt to Ba2
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jan 31 08:18. Comment.Moody’s is the first to move on the Mubarak uprising:
DIFC – Dubai, January 31, 2011 — Moody’s Investors Service has today downgraded Egypt’s government bond ratings to Ba2 from Ba1 and has changed the outlook to negative from stable. More…
When a country trades just like its banking system
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jan 14 15:08. Comment.It’s happening in CDS markets.
The below shows Moody’s Analytics’ implied-ratings for countries against those of the countries’ banking systems. You can see that for ‘strong’ sovereigns like Germany, More…
The uncertainty premium in Spanish, Portuguese banks = 12 ratings notches
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Jan 07 08:41. Comment.Here’s a point of interest del dia. Or even do dia.
The average CDS spreads for Spanish and Portuguese banks are now in line with the spreads of banks rated 10 and 12 notches below the banks’ average Moody’s ratings, More…
Fitch previews a precarious ESM
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Dec 10 09:09. Comment.Flying under the radar on Thursday — but with signficant implications for European bond markets — was a four-page report from Fitch Ratings.
The title: “Contagion, Support and Euro Area Sovereign Ratings” More…
A two-tiered sovereign ratings system
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Nov 24 10:14. Comment.Didn’t catch Standard & Poor’s bizarre midnight downgrade of Ireland?
Click here.
Of course, as we noted at 1.51am in the morning (in London), the whole thing is rather anticlimactic. Bond markets had been trading Ireland like less than an AA- country since about May this year. More…
Triple-A utility, Aa3 country
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Nov 23 15:13. Comment.Deutsche Bahn über alles, anyone?
Moody’s has added to the corporate-better-than-sovereign meme, noting in that the ratings of some European infrastructure and utilities companies could outstrip those of their parent sovereign. More…
Moody’s sees ‘definite negative’ for US rating. NOT.
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Nov 16 13:00. Comment.MISSING: Steven A. Hess, Moody’s analyst
LAST SEEN: Furiously backpedaling.
REWARD: A job with Dagong Credit Rating Agency Co.
Monday’s dip in US Treasuries is being partially attributed to the Moody’s analyst you see above — after he was quoted by Market News International, More…
US downgraded on QE2 … by Chinese rating agency
Posted by Tracy Alloway on Nov 09 15:32. Comment.Well, this was bound to happen.
Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. — the Chinese rating agency which hit headlines earlier this year for its AA-view on the United States — is back. With a US downgrade. More…