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’Trade the weather, not consensus?
Just an idea, of course.
But it comes via JPMorgan’s Seamus Mac Gorain, and it’s part of a 12-page study covering more than a decade of intraday trading data around big economic releases.
Here’s his thinking:
A gasoline snow print
Everyone loves a snow day.
And recent snowfalls across North America, it seems, have provided many with an excuse to take one. (That is, to stay at home for the day rather than to go to work or school.)
The stay-at-home trend has been so significant,
NYSE invokes Rule 48 for Wednesday’s open
Fresh from the New York Stock Exchange on a snowy Wednesday morning:
A background-er on Rule 48 (or as we like to call it, the ‘Tin Hat rule’) available here.
A whitemare on Britain’s high streets
The Arctic conditions gripping the UK have claimed their first stock market victim.
Step forward Alexon Group, the retailer that trades under such brands as Ann Harvey and Kaliko:
On Tuesday morning,
BAA’s Whitemare before Christmas
Some Monday morning hubris, courtesy of London Heathrow-operator BAA.
Heathrow’s army of snow ploughs stretch their wings as snow bites
29 November 2010
The cold snap may have only just bitten but Heathrow’s snow team has been working for months to ensure the UK’s hub airport will once again be prepared for the onset of winter.
And now the weather, from Goldman
Predicting what Friday’s US non-farm payroll data for February will say has been a bit trickier than usual. A light dusting of snow, atop a fragile recovery, atop a historically volatile indicator.
And that’s why the vampire squid has played meteorologist in its comprehensive payroll note this week.
Crying over hot air
Last week was an interesting one for commodities reporting.
In short, the mainstream press discovered the UK natural gas market. And while it’s very nice that they should care so much about a usually under-reported market (bar end-user price-hikes),
Snow: the billion pound black swan
Yes, we have a number! The economic impact of today’s catastrophic snowfall has been calculated! And according to the Federation of Small Businesses it is…
£1,200,000,000
Which, by unhappy coincidence is just about the size of the government’s small business bailout fund – which clocks in at £1.3bn.
Snow banker
Sits by RBC,
Liquidity is frozen,
So are his assets.
Snow! (the economic impact)
Yes, fun and snow balls aside, there is officially a serious angle to Monday’s epic snowfalls in the UK.
Don’t believe us? Here’s what Howard Archer, UK economist at IHS Global Insight, has to say about the matter.