RSS feeds&p 500
’Is it a rally, or is it short covering?
Exhibit a) the euro versus the dollar:
How does one account for Tuesday’s sudden (and rather non-news specific) reversal in the euro?
Here are the thoughts of Michael Derks, chief strategist at FX Pro:
The S&P 500 ETF that’s a little bit zut alors, sacrebleu!
Back in October, iShares, the world’s leading exchange traded fund provider, decided to set an important transparency example for the ETF industry. The ETF provider began providing the market with details of its securities lending operations.
Commodities and currencies won’t save you(r earnings)
It requires a bit of head-tilting, but this chart from UBS is worth a look given the advent of third quarter earnings season in the US:
According to the estimates UBS has pieced together, roughly two-thirds of revenue growth for companies in the S&P 500 in the second quarter was down to commodities price swings and a combination of the weaker dollar and non-US sales growth.
Welcome to the bear market, America
Arbitrary worry gauge alert! The S&P 500 has now fallen over 20 per cent since its April 29 high:
Tuesday, October 04, 2011 9:32:10 AM RTRS – S&P 500 .SPX ENTERS BEAR MARKET, DOWN MORE THAN 20 PCT FROM 2011 INTRADAY HIGH.DJI.IXIC.SPX
At pixel time the index had reached 1,087,
We are in a secular bear market
For someone who hasn’t got much to add about the current state of the market, Bob Janjuah still manages to crank out 1,500 words in his latest piece for Nomura.
Bob firmly believes we are in a third stage of a secular bear market,
The S&P at 400 is almost inevitable
After his brief experiment with technical analysis (well, Killer Waves) uber bear Albert Edwards returns to more familiar ground in his latest Global Strategy Weekly.
Jeremy Grantham of GMO says this is “no market for young men”.
A tale of two strategists
Whatever it is Merrill Lynch’s David Bianco is smoking we’d like some of it…
… because we can’t help feeling things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get any better.
Much like Morgan Stanley’s Graham Secker in fact,
Emergency Markets Live in five minutes: 9:55am NY time
(That’s 2:55 pm, London time.)
The emergency Markets Live circuit breakers are tripping on Thursday.
Just as well the Nyse implemented rule 48 this morning.
10-year US Treasuries were touching 2.04 per cent yields at pixel time while US crude futures were down over $4.
S&P death cross
We aren’t big fans of technical analysis, but a lot of people are — which is why the following is generating a lot of interest in the City.
It’s called a death cross and it’s triggered when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day average.
More earnings confusion
Monday’s WSJ gives lengthy treatment to the scramble among analysts to work out whether stocks are cheap considering the uncertainty about the path of US corporate earnings.
There’s plenty of disagreement among the sell-siders and cheapness is itself a hazy concept.
‘Flash crash’ facts
Via JPMorgan:
Operation Twist — and shout
Strange, fast, markets. The S&P 500 closed at 1,172.53, up 53 points, or 4.74 per cent. That’s the biggest one day rise since 20 October, 2008. 10-year Treasury yields touched crisis lows. And the US dollar…
Vix curve implies a ‘systemically important shock event’
As the Vix and More blog duly noted last Friday, not only has spot Vix been spiking in its own right (last print seen around the 40 mark on Monday), the entire Vix term structure has flipped into backwardation over the last 10 trading days:
Friday: five stories, five questions
A long, strange, volatile day. Charted:
Stocks suffered large swings, with financials taking some of the biggest hits. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries were up by their largest amount this year — ending up around 2.57 per cent.
What was that about QE3?
US stocks ended their bear run on Wednesday but it was tin hat time again on Thursday morning.
Idle QE3 chit chat between three former Fed directors and the Wall Street Journal was cited by many as the reason for Wednesday’s about-turn.
Reality, bites
Introducing the debt ceiling relief rally:
That’s the seventh daily decline in a row for the S&P 500, placing it in negative negative territory for the year.
Risk off, with nowhere to go
A miserable day.
At one point the headline on the Reuters home page read: “Wall Street slides on earnings, economy, politics.” Short of blaming the collective wisdom of the two cultures, there was nothing left.
Bob Janjuah’s 3 Words
Bob ‘The Bear’ Janjuah has filed his last piece before heading off for his summer hols.
The Nomura man is still forecasting a risk-on melt-up over summer (the S&P 500 into the 1,400s by September,
Risk on… wait, never mind
Remember when risk assets bounced on Bernanke’s testimony suggesting that QE3 was now under more serious consideration within the FOMC?
That was at 10am EST on Wednesday, but then the rally lost its legs.
Corporates spending like it’s the 50s
The US equity gang at Credit Suisse, having previously warned us that the current profits expansion is starting to look a bit long in the tooth, are back with a new note about corporate spending decisions.
Phantom indices
Themis Trading — ever-alert for structural weaknesses in markets — have a new paper.
It’s about ‘phantom indices’ — or the idea that widely-followed indices such as the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the Nasdaq 100 don’t actually track all of the shares traded intraday.
Albert Edwards and an afternoon tea-party with the Vestal Virgins
Breaking news.
Albert Edwards is bullish.
Bullish on US Treasuries that is, which the SocGen strategist expects to hit record levels before before government profligacy and the Fed’s printing presses take the world back to both double-digit inflation and bond yields.
Yen weakening after initial post-earthquake gains
Details remain hard to come by after the 7.1 earthquake that hit Japan late Thursday night local time, but recent flashes from Kyodo News indicate that its damage has thus far been limited, though a tsunami warning has been issued for the northeast coast where it hit:
Earnings vs event-driven stock correlations
During last summer’s US economic slump, the CBOE S&P 500 implied correlation index hit a couple of intraday record highs before starting a consistent (if jumpy) downward trend through the end of the year,
A quick US morning market round-up
“This isn’t a flight to quality, it’s a flight from disaster.” [Via Bloomberg]
That, from Colin Embree from Bank of Nova Scotia Asia, sums up movements on Tuesday morning.
The S&P was down 1.8 per cent at 1,272 at pixel time.
Gaddafi’s market – US edition
Spotted: Vix, the ‘fear gauge’, up nearly 28 per cent on Tuesday.
A 2011 Egyptian revolution-encompassing high. (Though still way below 2010 eurozone-crisis levels.) According to VelocityShares,