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’[Something for the weekday] Dear Mr Budenberg
Due to unforeseen technical errors — actually it was the over zealous FT spam filter — Neil’s column did not appear at its usual time on Friday. But it’s too good to waste so we are publishing now.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Monday,
- Ryanair raises full year guidance by 10 per cent — statement and presentation.
- Lenders to Premier Foods agree to defer upcoming covenant test; refinancing talks continue — statement.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Wednesday,
- Home Retail Group to assess dividend in light of full year trading outcome –statement.
- BSkyB warns growth will be harder to come by in next few quarters — statement.
Aer Lingus stake set for take off?
Aer Lingus, the troubled Irish flag carrier, has been in focus on Tuesday.
The Daily Mail reckons Ryanair is making a third attempt to acquire the airline, in a bid to create an all-Irish national champion:
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Friday,
- Lloyds posts pre-tax profit of £2.21bn, Irish impairments rise — statement.
- IAG pre-tax profit for 2010 of €84m — statement and statement.
- Ryanair has ‘very serious questions’ over Aer Lingus provision — statement.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Monday,
- Ryanair posts third-quarter loss of €10m – statement.
- Lagardere to sell International Magazine unit to Hearst for €651m – statement.
- Gulf Keystone says Kurdistan study backs estimates – statement.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Monday,
- Desire Petroleum says reports logging Rachel prospect in the Falklands — statement.
- Ryanair increased FY guidance after half year profits rise 17 per cent — statement.
Ryanair and Gatwick guessing
Ryanair could shift many of its flights from Stansted to Gatwick if the Sussex airport’s new owner lives up to promises to improve its services and keep charges down . . .
That’s from the Evening Standard earlier this month,
Low-cost flying liquidity collars
What is Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou up to?
We ask the question because for the second time in five months the easyJet founder has made liquid some more of his holding in the no-frills airlines.
From the RNS on Wednesday morning:
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Monday,
- Citigroup said to plan sale of $10bn private-equity unit – Bloomberg.
- Ryanair Q3 loss falls to €11m versus €102m year before – statement.
- Gazprom profit falls to 479bn roubles in nine months ended September versus 752bn year before – statement.
Tiger Airways burning bright…
Meet Tiger Airways, a Singapore-based budget carrier set up in 2004 to serve the Australasian market.
Read Tiger Airways IPO prospectus, filed today, Tuesday, with the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Monday,
- Royal Bank of Scotland says it is close to deal on APS, sees some unplanned EC-forced divestments – statement.
- Dragon Oil says Emirates National Oil Company to buy remaining stake in company for 455p a share – statement.
Bonfire of the Irish carrier
Just how badly is Irish flag carrier Aer Lingus doing?
Stinkingly. The Irish airline posted a €93m operating loss in the first-half of 2009 — up from a €23mm loss last year. More importantly, however,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Monday,
- Commerzbank sells Dresdner Bank (Switzerland) to Liechtenstein-based LGT Group — statement.
- Julius Baer first-half net profit falls to CHF 324m, AUM up 9 per cent at CHF 299bn — statement.
The art of aircraft ordering
Like the Japanese sport of sumo wresting, the art of placing an aircraft order is about two things — timing and bulk.
United Airlines may have perfected both aspects. From the Wall Street Journal:
United Airlines has asked Boeing Co.
Airline cycles, redux
We think this is proof that the vast majority of long-term airline investors are stupid irrational.
That’s from Goldman Sachs, who on Monday issued a note on European airports and airlines.
The thrust of the research is that though passenger traffic appears to be stabilising,
Aerospace mothballs
Ahead of Boeing’s results on April 22, we thought this chart might be instructive. Click to enlarge.
That’s the number of aircraft in temporary storage. The increase in late 2008/early 2009 is startling — and much worse than in the previous down cycle,
The finance of flying fat
European discount carrier Ryanair has long been a big proponent of discretionary charges. Paying for things like check-in and excess baggage charges, added €132m to their third-quarter results, accounting for 22 per cent of total revenue.
AffAer Lingus
Aer Lingus CEO Dermot Mannion’s abrupt departure from the Irish airline on Monday morning has left many bewildered.
So far, all we have by way of explantion is this tidbit from the official statement:
Diverging strategies, airline edition
While most of the world’s airlines weather recession by hunkering down, trimming capacity to cut costs and deal with slackening demand, there are those that have a somewhat different strategy. Spot the odd ones out in this Bernstein chart.
Aerospace datapoint du jour
From Ryanair’s third-quarter results. (FT Alphaville’s calculations).
Proceeds from sales of Boeing 737-800 in Q3 2008 – €26.5m each. (Five aircraft sold for roughly €132.6m)
Proceeds from sales of Boeing 737-800 in Q3 2009 – €21.2m each.
Flying like it’s 1991
Airline tickets, which have so far managed to resist deflationary pressures, may be moving towards a rather pronounced collapse.
Yesterday, we saw a JP Morgan economist speculate that the 34 per cent 12-month increase in air fares contained in the UK’s December inflation figure was on the verge of a “reversal”.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Tuesday morning,
- Nationwide says house prices fell 2.5% in December – statement
- Ryanair fails to woo Aer Lingus investors: initial offer draws just 22,314 shares
- Corporate results:
Ryanair, a lesson in shareholder equality
Is it any surprise that the airline run by this man has breached Irish takeover rules?
Probably not. What’s more worrying, however, is what this might do to Ryanair’s second bid for its long-standing Irish rival,
Ryanair 50:50
Ryanair is fond of showing this chart at investor presentations, so we thought we’d reprise it here.
That’s a history of airline mergers approved by the European Commission in recent years, with Ryanair’s 2006 hostile takeover attempt of Aer Lingus the only one to have been blocked by the competition authorities.
Aer Lingus rejects Ryanair
Aer Lingus on Monday night rejected the second hostile bid in two years from Ryanair, its much bigger Irish rival. The Irish government, which holds a 25% stake, responded cautiously, in contrast to its immediate rejection of the first bid two years ago.
(Tax) Pie in the Sky
Tucked away in Darling’s pre-budget report yesterday was something that may be impacting the share prices of UK and Irish airlines today — all of which, with the exception of the illiquid Aer Lingus, are down in early morning trading.
Wolf vs O’Leary
We’re not sure that Martin Wolf has been called ‘wrong’ twice in the last ten years, let alone in the course of one letter.
Hushed tones and slack-jawed respect is the usual modus operandi for dealing with the FT’s chief economics commentator.
Brussels blocks Ryanair’s Aer Lingus bid
The EU’s top antitrust regulator on Wednesday blocked Ryanair’s audacious €1.48bn bid to take over domestic rival Aer Lingus, but ruled out any move that would force the low-cost airline to divest its current 25 per cent stake in the Irish flag carrier.
Ryanair’s move on Aer Lingus set to fail
Ryanair’s bid for Aer Lingus will almost certainly be blocked by the European Commission later this month, after Brussels found a combination of Europe’s biggest low-cost airline and Ireland’s flag carrier would undermine competition and harm consumers.