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’UK retail recession watch: Royal Wedding hangover
UK retail sales figures are out and they have managed to undershoot expectations.
The City was braced for a fall for May as consumers put their hands back in their pockets after splashing out in April (because of the good weather,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Tuesday,
- Microsoft close to deal to buy Skype — report.
- CME increases trading margins for US crude futures by 25 per cent — statement and report.
- Pace warns on profits — statement.
The inflationary Easter bunny
Some of the MPC may be exhaling a premature sigh of relief at the widely rumoured inflation *non-fail news* out Tuesday morning.
Analysts have been quick to note that the first below consensus CPI result for 10 months (4 per cent year-on-year vs 4.4 per cent expected) was driven by a fall in food prices (to 4 per cent y-o-y from 5.7 per cent in February),
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Tuesday,
- UK High street sales weakest for two years — report and statement.
- Antofagasta to pay special dividend of $1 a share — statement.
- Betfair maintains earnings guidance;
Retail sales and PPI warm-up for the FOMC
You wait all morning for the 0.8 bus and then three come along at once.
Three US indicators were released on Monday all showing 0.8 per cent increases in advance of the final FOMC meeting of the year.
Something for Mr Posen and his friends
Here’s something for Adam Posen and all those in favour of further quantitative easing to chew on; UK retail sales have fallen for a second month in a row according to the Office of National Statistics:
Nothing fundamental about this rally
What has really caused this?
. . . and this?
(Note the S&P 500 is now 7.1 per cent above the 10-month low reached on Payrolls Friday 12 days ago and just around 1.5 per cent away from its 200-day moving average).
US retail sales surprise — on the downside
Disappointing data on May’s US retail sales gave markets a nasty shock on Friday.
Flashes via Reuters:
RTRS-US MAY RETAIL SALES -1.2 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.2 PCT) VS APRIL +0.6 PCT (PREV +o.4 PCT)
RTRS-US
US shoppers spent less over Black Friday weekend
Consumers spent significantly less per person at the start of the holiday season this weekend, dimming hopes for a retail comeback that would help propel the economy early in 2010, Reuters reported. The lacklustre spending could pressure retail stocks on Monday,
(Scary) chart du jour: US retail sale performance in selected recessions [UPDATED]
Tremble, retailers:
(Via The Big Picture, H/T @EconomPic)
[UPDATE] An appropriately worrying indicator of the state of the US consumer, from the NY Times (via Calculated Risk):
“There are families not eating at the end of the month,”
Wal-Mart’s aggressive recession strategy (UPDATED)
US readers will likely know that Wal-Mart has been actively promoting itself as the recession warrior’s grocer with a series of print and television ads promoting its discounted prices on items ranging from breakfast cereal to books to coffins (we are not making this up).
Outlook for US consumer-facing sectors still poor, S&P says
It looks like US consumers’ thriftiness really will wreck Christmas, as far as US retailers and restaurateurs – and Standard & Poor’s – are concerned.
In a report on Tuesday, the rating agency said the consumer products,
The end of Kobe beef burgers, or how thrift stole Christmas
Frugal is the new black, according to everyone from David Rosenberg to the US consumer and the beleaguered retailers.
Consider the following piece, which appeared in the New York Times on Friday:
In the retail business,
Housing market to rescue the UK
Here’s an alternative view on the UK economy from ResearcH2, the analytical arm of real-estate advisers BH2.
The team there has long presented a defence of the UK economy, saying the length and depth of downturn has been way overstated by commenters.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Tuesday,
- UK retail sales values rose 1.4 per cent on a like-for-like basis from June 2008 – British Retail Consortium.
- Arden Partners half-year profit falls to £0.1m from £1.6m — statement.
ONS gets sums wrong on retail sales
One of Britain’s most closely watched economic indicators has heavily overstated the quantity of high street sales over the past two years, the Office for National Statistics admitted on Friday. Britain’s supplier of official statistics conceded that since the financial crisis began in August 2007,
Recession at Tiffany’s
Sharp on the heels of Wednesday’s disastrous US December retail numbers (plunging twice as much as expected) come sales figures from jewellery-maker Tiffany. Prognosis? Ouch ouch ouch.
Apparently demand for diamonds isn’t holding up well at all.