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’US returns to growth with 3.5% rise in Q3 GDP
Here it is – the number markets have been holding their collective breath for.
US GDP grew at an annualised rate of 3.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2009 according to the first estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Jobs and recovery. Discuss.
Here are three distinct points of view to ponder when it comes to the outlook for the US recovery.
First, the prospect of a jobless recovery — that is, one which doesn’t produce growth in employment.
Managing expectations, central bank edition
Adding to the central bank confusion this week, is this FT story by US economics editor Krishna Guha:
When the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to virtually zero in December last year, it told the market it expected to keep them there for quite a while.
Reading the RBA minutes
Want more detail on the decision of Australia’s central bank to hike interest rates?
The move made Australia the first G20 nation to raise rates since the peak of the financial crisis, and prompted much talk of a global economic recovery.
Six months of the sweet spot, DB says
Some thought the ‘sweet spot’ of the global economic recovery wouldn’t last till the end of the year.
But not Deutsche Bank.
In a note out on Friday, the bank’s fixed income team says that sweet spot could persist for another six or nine months:
Of square roots and economic indicators
Remember when George Soros warned of an inverted square-root recovery?
Something that might look a little bit like this in fact:
Well, we couldn’t help noticing Danske Bank’s chart showing off the Baltic Dry Index as a potential leading indicator on Friday:
Prepare for a wild ride – the WWW-shaped economic recovery
A big hat tip to FT insurance correspondent, Paul Davies, for adding the below to our collection of recovery-shapes.
That is the WWW-shaped economic recovery, also known, in FT Alphaville parlance,
Don’t worry about deleveraging…
… says Goldman Sachs.
The rather dramatic drop in US consumer credit outstanding has sparked yet another recovery debate, with many claiming the global economy will be unable to get back on its feet without consumers going back to their old,
The shape of things to come is probably not ‘V’
So say Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists — and it’s all because of those debt-ridden US consumers.
For years US consumers have binged on cheap credit and provided the demand needed to match China’s furious supply.
Land of the rising GDP…and deflation
Hot on the heels of France and Germany, Japan on Monday reported that its economy also returned to growth in the second quarter. Excellent news on the face of it, but a closer look at the details reveals all is not so rosy.
Is this where we are now?
Looking to the skies for signs of an economic recovery? Really? From Reuters:
And if so, surely Wednesday’s solar eclipse is a bad omen?
Doth the elusive ‘W’ raise its head?
US non-farm payrolls as reported on Thursday (H/T Josh Noble):
Related link:
US non-farm payrolls fall 467,000 in June – FT Alphaville
RTRS: GOLDMAN CEO SAYS “CHANCES ARE” THIS IS NOT THE RECOVERY
Can this be right? A Goldman executive who’s not bullish?
According to Reuters it is.
TEL AVIV, June 10 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein said on Wednesday he believed a current upturn in world markets was probably not a full recovery from crisis and said he expected a further long recession.
Too hot, too cold and just right
‘Just right’, below, being what we’re aiming for, according to this WSJ graphic. Click here to see the WSJ’s two other scenarios.
Investors sceptical on stock market rebound
The majority of the world’s leading investors do not believe the recent strong performance of stocks and other risky assets is sustainable, according to a report by Barclays Capital released on Monday.
Merrill: Oil prices could pose risk to economic recovery
The recent rally in crude has been separately characterised as both an instance of irrational exuberance and as a legitimate ‘green shoot’ of economic recovery.
Merrill Lynch, however,
Nouriel’s ‘perfect storm’
So the ubiquitous doomster, Nouriel Roubini, is at it again (the man never stops).
“Don’t believe the optimists”, he warns in his latest article in Forbes. Indeed, with news on Friday that the UK has been warned by the IMF to rein in its public spending,