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’On the brink of a British double-dip
Dramatic, we know. But the ONS has confirmed the economy grew only 0.5 per cent in 2011′s first quarter after its 0.5 per cent fall in 2010′s last three months, and technically…
…That’s also already confirming a double-dip in GDP in absolute terms over the period,
Japan’s ‘temporary’ recession?
The news from Japan on Thursday reinforced some of the worst fears about the state of the economy, but not everyone is gloomy — far from it — although the latest growth figures are truly horrible.
As the FT reports:
Oily shadows of 2008
What do over $100 per barrel oil prices really mean for the global economy?
According to Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC, the situation doesn’t bode well for the recovery at all.
His Friday research piece beings:
A balanced take on imbalances
What does this chart mean to you?
For central bankers such as Ben Bernanke and Mervyn King, these international imbalances were partially to blame for the financial crisis. Reverse capital flows smashed open a proverbial Pandora’s box of financial fun:
Goldman hedges its bets
Having announced with much fanfare last week a new, more positive view on the US economy, Goldman Sachs is back-tracking ever so slightly.
Now, the bank still thinks real GDP growth of 2.7 per cent next year and 3.6 per cent the year is the most likely outcome,
The view from investors
Sure, the NBER says the recession ended more than a year ago, but we all know the economy remains in uncertain territory.
And what do investors think? According to Bloomberg’s latest quarterly poll,
The Great Recession was so 2009
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research has arbitrarily declared something of little real import announced that the Great Recession in the US officially ended more than a year ago (emphasis ours in all excerpts):
US Q2 GDP revised to 1.6 per cent
A beat for Ben.
US second-quarter GDP growth was revised from 2.4 per cent to 1.6 per cent by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday, above a consensus of 1.4 per cent revised growth.
Flashes,
Before Jackson Hole, Part 1: since last we met
It is now 17 days since the eagerly-awaited FOMC statement in which Ben Bernanke announced the plan to re-invest the repayments from the Fed’s MBS holdings into long-dated treasuries.
Given all the interest in his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday,
Non-terrible US employment news
Let’s follow the timeline here.
At the start of August, economists polled by Reuters expect the next initial weekly claims report (which provides the number of people filing for unemployment insurance each week),
US housing: bad to worse, then worse again
We said on Monday to expect more bad news from the US housing market, but we didn’t know it would get so bad so quickly.
Following Tuesday’s awful existing home sales numbers, the Census Bureau announced on Wednesday that new homes had sold at an annual rate of 276,000 in July,
Survivor’s gilt, again
This one’s dedicated to George.
We aren’t absolutely sure, but it looks like the 10-year gilt on Tuesday plunged to a 50-year low — well below March 2009 levels, anyway:
We blame Dr Martin Weale.
A flashing red light from the ECRI
This will have bears like David Rosenberg and Albert Edwards licking their lips.
The Bloomberg chart below — which you can click to enlarge — shows the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) weekly indicator:
Notes from the deflationary quicksand
Deflationary quicksand… We will all end up Japanese… Collapsing houses of cards…
Yes, it’s another missive from SocGen’s perma-bear Albert Edwards, who on Thursday developed some recent riffs on deflation a tad further:
BIStoric
The Bank for International Settlements — the central banks’ bank — has done something great.
BIS has scanned and stuck all its historic annual reports online, in one easy-to-access place. The reports,
Sterling falls, gilts rally after GDP reading
Specifically, sterling lost around half a cent against the dollar while gilt futures rallied after the report showing the UK economy had emerged from recession in the fourth quarter — but only just.
March gilt futures:
It’s over
After six quarters the UK’s longest, and possibly deepest recession since the second world war has ended – but only JUST.
Q4 GDP rose 0.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter, well below forecasts. (A 0.4 per cent rise was expected).
Rosenberg’s ‘Not So Great Depression’
Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg has taken umbrage with the term ‘The Great Recession’ to describe the current global economic malaise.
According to the seasoned economist, it’s quite clear what we experienced last year was not a recession but a depression.
I LUV u – Sir Martin Sorrell gets creative
Sir Martin Sorrell, he of the famous “bath shaped recession” quip, appears to have a growing addiction to shape-based economic prognosis.
Having already offered his prediction for an “L-shaped” recession,
US returns to growth with 3.5% rise in Q3 GDP
Here it is – the number markets have been holding their collective breath for.
US GDP grew at an annualised rate of 3.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2009 according to the first estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Ever heard of the the “News Heard” index?
On Friday, Credit Suisse’s chief economist Neal Soss issued a note in which he upgraded his forecast for the upcoming September report on US consumer confidence (to 70 from 60, and compared with a reading of 54.1 in August).
Drug dealers or recession gurus?
The FT’s Lucy Kellaway, known for her witty take-downs of management guff, set her sights on rapper-turned-management guru 50 Cent in her column on Monday:
At the age of 12, he was a drug dealer; at 22,
The technical end of the recession doesn’t mean much
Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics and NY Times blogger, believes there is a big difference between the technical end of the recession, which has probably happened, and anything resembling satisfactory performance.
Fed holds rates, says recession easing – statement
Statement released by the US Federal Reserve at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, emphasis FT Alphaville’s. Note the Fed will also be winding down its Treasury purchases by October:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out.
North Dakota, engine of US growth?
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (the Philly Fed) has released its “monthly coincident indices” for June, showing the economic conditions in each of the 50 US states.
47 states showed declining activity over a three-month period,
IMF says world is pulling out of recession
The world economy is starting to pull out of recession, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, marking up its growth forecasts for next year and hinting that it might reduce its estimates for bank losses,
Recession increases suicide and murder
Unemployment and recession add to the death toll from suicide, murder and heart attacks but cut the number killed in road accidents, according to a study conducted by researchers at Oxford University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Doth the elusive ‘W’ raise its head?
US non-farm payrolls as reported on Thursday (H/T Josh Noble):
Related link:
US non-farm payrolls fall 467,000 in June – FT Alphaville
Depression tracking, graphic edition
FT chief economic commentator Martin Wolf draws attention to the work of Barry Eichengreen of the University of California at Berkeley and Kevin O’Rourke of Trinity College, Dublin, in his Wednesday column.
California’s eighth largest city ponders bankruptcy
SFGate reports:
behind closed doors the Oakland City Council has discussed filing for bankruptcy protection in the midst of a $100 million budget deficit.
“We have asked the (bankruptcy) question because we wanted to know the impact,”