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’Terminado del forebearance
Here’s an interesting exercise from Fitch — they’ve counted up 8,235 properties which were repossessed in Spanish RMBS that they rated.
These are some of their findings:
Average 43% Value Depreciation:
Lloyds impaired
It seemed too good to last… and it was.
Lloyds Banking Group has bucked the trend in the UK banks sector and reported a disappointing set of half year figures.
At pixel time the shares were down 4.4p at 37.25p.
Safe haven alternatives, London property edition
As FT Alphaville and others have duly noted, the search for the ultimate safe haven alternative is on.
RBS now points to one possible alternative, London luxury-home prices.
From their European rates morning research note:
On the matter of misvalued Chinese land
Phew..! What a relief.
The Chinese danger is no more.
As we all know by know, data released on Wednesday categorically confirmed that Chinese growth had defied recent tightening measures by monetary authorities and continued on track in the second quarter at 9.5 per cent (thus saving the world).
Nomura says Spanish banks are funding 24 years worth of housing
During the Spanish boom of 2004-2008 the country started construction of about 3.26m new houses, according to Nomura’s figures, and sold about 2.86m in the Costa Brava beach house craze.
By the end of 2009,
China’s uncollateralised, cash flow-less, local government loans
The first time FT Alphaville stumbled upon China’s local government debt problem, it was in the form of one Shanghai district township snaffling a $250m loan from a Chinese bank for a “high-profile investment.”
Chinese housing inventories are rising
Standard Chartered are on the ball as ever when it comes to developments in the Chinese real-estate market.
In their latest note they warn about the scale of possible over-supply that’s set to hit the market.
Chinese ‘copper financing’ got even more popular this month
So says Standard Chartered bank in their latest Metals Weekly research.
The bank was among the first to bring attention to the fad of commodity-backed financing in China, and now has this update:
Three weeks ago in our report ‘Copper – A reality check from China’ (7 March 2011),
David Rosenberg’s cartoon-ish 2011
David Rosenberg’s gone all cartoony.
The Gluskin Sheff analyst seems to have given up on on words and is instead using charts — and Loony Tunes — to illustrate his (very salient) points.
The introductory text:
A Chinese real-estate supply shock
Standard Chartered’s analysts have been doing a good job of monitoring the Chinese real-estate conundrum — i.e. will prices collapse or will they just keep booming forever?
In a note issued on Thursday,
RE-ally good news?
Readers will have heard the case against real-estate and commercial real-estate investments. But here, courtesy of Patrick Moonen of ING IM, is a more optimistic view on Wednesday:
Real estate outperformance could continue in 2011.
From foreclosure to writedowns
Foreclosure worries are now (finally) seeping into bank shares and credit.
Four US financials — Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, GMac/Ally, PNC — have halted foreclosures in all or some US states while they sort out technical deficiencies in their paperwork process.
An Irish covered-bond warning
This is why Barclays Capital’s warning over Ireland’s medium-term debt sustainability matters. Note that phrasing. Ireland will not be going to the IMF tomorrow — but there’s more uncertainty in the next few years.
Cracks in the Chinese bubble?
We’ve written a fair amount about the Chinese property market on FT Alphaville. We’ve noted some stinky securitisation practices and highlighted some ghost-towns. Then we found some over-bidding on prices. The next thing to rock the Chinese property market – stress-tests,
What does Spanish bank stress look like in real life?
Here’s some reality-based European banking stress to consider ahead of Friday’s theoretical test announcements, courtesy of some results from a Spanish lender.
Step forward, Banco Sabadell.
On the face of it,
What’s up with Spanish mortgage lending?
The non-performing pain in Spain is back in the limelight.
The total stock of non-performing loans sloshing around the Spanish banking system hit €100bn in May, according to data from the Bank of Spain released on Monday.
Spain’s sand-castle exposure
Aside from generalised peripheral sovereign debt jitters, there is another reason to be scared of Spain, according to Barclays Capital’s Antonio Garcia Pascaul.
In his latest note, co-authored by Piero Ghezzi,
A US new home sales no-brainer
So much for a pick-up in the US housing market.
The latest figures from the US Commerce Department on Wednesday showed sales of new homes plunging by 33 per cent in May, to a record low.
As MarketWatch noted,
UK housing drop: was it the weather?
More UK housing data just in and it leaves us wondering — was it the weather?
House prices as tracked by the Halifax fell 1.5 per cent for the month of February, putting an end to seven consecutive months of house price rises.
China’s metropoli bubble fear
We believe that we now have a bubble in many cities, particularly the big ones. The central government is trying to deflate these bubbles gently, rather than pop them. The fact that prices have been at these levels before suggests this can be accomplished,
The ultimate in Jingle Mail
Jingle Mail : A situation where a homeowner mails his or her house keys to a mortgage lender due to an inability to meet mortgage payment obligations and a lack of equity in the property. If a homeowner is upside-down in a mortgage and feels the entire loan is a lost cause,
Luxury purchases: The rush for real assets
The boom times, it appears, are back.
Savills, the UK estate agent, recently sold a London house for £40m, Bentley began production on a luxury car worth £220,000, and this week Rembrandt’s “Portrait of a man”
China’s land boom goes private
How does one compete with a liquidity-swamped state-owned Chinese land developer?
Like so:
HONG KONG (Dow Jones)–Chinese developer Agile Property Holdings Ltd. (3383.HK) plans to sell US$400 million worth of seven-year U.S.
Urban (commentary) combat in China
Is China urbanised or not?
It’s a question of more economic importance than you might think, given that it’s still widely believed that China will lead the world economy into recovery. A low urbanisation ratio — the proportion of people living in urban areas — would suggest that it still has lots of growth to get through.
China’s liquid real estate bubble
That is the building which houses the most expensive apartment in Hong Kong. The five-bedroom apartment sold for $56.6m on Wednesday, sparking further speculation that the city — and the rest of China — might be in the grips of a real estate market bubble.
California’s nightmare
Things are already extremely rotten in the state of California, and are likely to worsen, according to forecasts by two teams of homegrown economists.
SignonSanDiego.com reports, (emphasis FT Alphaville’s):
Real estate vs equities: Equities all the way
Real estate or equities – which promises better value right now? Some have argued that whatever rise we’re seeing in housing sales at the moment is being driven by speculators who, as soon as housing prices begin to recover, send a fresh wave of property onto the market and so hamper a recovery.