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’Send for the chimp
The S&P 500 appears to be at its highest intraday level since September 2008:
Which means it’s time for …
Let the equity bear market resume
If you are wondering what this was all about…
… don’t worry, Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards has the answer. And it’s really rather simple.
The rally that started in July and continued into September was just “the market working off an extreme oversold position as it carves out a long-term top before entering the third lef of a multi-decade valuation bear market”.
Uncooperative QE
Disappointed with the recent slump in equity markets?
Blame the Fed. For as Nomura’s rates team note on Wednesday — continuing an FT Alphaville theme — central banks just don’t seem to be getting the same,
I am Shiva, destroyer of market confidence — not
Someone killed the rally in London’s markets on Monday, and the Reserve Bank of India is a suspect – but FT Alphaville fears a miscarriage of justice.
(Shiva is the Hindu god of destruction and benefaction,
TrimTabs on that ‘US government-rigged stock market’
FT Alphaville loves a good conspiracy theory, so here’s one to kick off Wednesday morning.
It’s the TrimTabs report referenced in this morning’s 6am Cut, questioning whether the US government is secretly propping up stock markets.
[Outlook 2010] Chasing the rally into the New Year
A 2009 perennial question – how long will the rally in global equities last? The answer is right through next year, if you believe the consensus view from the latest Bank 0f America Merrill Lynch fund manager’s survey.
Have a holly, jolly, rally-filled Christmas, Goldman says
Because December is traditionally a very good month for European equities.
And the better the year, the better the December, according to the kitten-cuddling bank.
Here’s the basic idea from Goldman Sachs’ European equity strategy team:
The Last Hurrah in stocks?
Is it here?
Shares in Wall Street and Asia fell on Monday — sending the market scrambling for explanation. The FTSE is down about 1.3 per cent on Tuesday morning — despite BP, one of the weightiest stocks on the index,
It’s time to take out the (rally) trash…
And replace it with new trash “low quality” stocks.
So say the quants at Bernstein Research, in inimitable quant-style.
Here’s the basic idea, though:
This year’s rally in lower quality stocks spanned most industry groups and had an impressive 6 month run from March to September.
That carpe diem (property) rally
JP Morgan property analysts Harm Meijer and Osmaan Malik give good notes, and their latest piece of research is no exception.
The two are now even more convinced that UK property values are recovering,
Build ‘em up, knock ‘em down
Reporting season is underway — look sharp.
The next couple of days will likely set the tone, with sentiment-shaping numbers coming from JP Morgan on Wednesday ahead of third-quarter results from Goldman Sachs and Citi the next day.
Six months of the sweet spot, DB says
Some thought the ‘sweet spot’ of the global economic recovery wouldn’t last till the end of the year.
But not Deutsche Bank.
In a note out on Friday, the bank’s fixed income team says that sweet spot could persist for another six or nine months:
This bank-engineered equity rally
The creatively-named Moonraker Fund Management is, we think, one of the first firms to say the below relatively explicitly.
The boutique investment house is “concerned” that banks may have been using their bailout money — and no doubt some of their quantitative easing-gained liquidity — to buy equities,
The anaemic equity rally
Here’s something to put the equity rally in perspective.
That’s a chart of net flows into European equity funds from Citi. You can see that while investors rushed to pull out money in the latter half of 2008 — by record amounts — they haven’t exactly enthusiastically returned — yet.
Attendant QE rallies, exits and the Japanese experience
Here, just for you dear readers, is a selection of analyst reaction to the Bank of England’s surprise Thursday decision to extend quantitative easing by £50bn.
The highlights are our own, throughout,
The (QE)uropean equities rally and yields
Have a look at this chart, from Citi’s pan-European portfolio strategy team. It shows the performance of European equities and the US yield curve for the past 10 years. There’s a pretty clear trend here — when the yield curve steepens European stocks tend to fall,