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’Analysts, don’t bash Poland
Be prepared, analysts. If you bash Poland, you will get a full-scale national slap down.
For example, a recent BNP Paribas note suggesting the country’s bonds may be over-valued on account of a weak fiscal outlook,
Poland facing another wobble after all
Poland’s growth was the envy of Europe, right?
Analysts pointed to its steady advancement, strong domestic demand, ongoing wage growth and only one ‘small’ wobble during the crisis connected to foreign currency exposure,
Foreign-currency lending is rising in Poland
S&P put out a review of the Polish banking sector on Thursday which, quite worryingly, concluded that the industry’s credit risks were rising because foreign currency lending — seen as the country’s biggest exposure to the global crisis — is actually growing.
Poland: not so strong after all?
Most analysts maintain that Poland stands to ride the financial storm better than any other country in emerging Europe. The country in some ways seen as the quasi China of Europe. Yet indicators suggesting the opposite are mounting up.
Political fat tails
Probability distributions didn’t do a great job predicting financial meltdown, and we’re not sure they’ll be much better at predicting general events. But, since it’s not far-fetched to think that political extremes can follow economic ones,
Emerging Europe outlook: still bleak
It’s still not looking good for Emerging Europe according to the latest report on the region from Fitch:
Growth in EE is expected to drop more than in other regions as the characteristics of many countries — such as trade openness,
CEE’s stand against SPECTRE-lators
The interesting thing about the Central and Eastern European crisis is how quickly it turned. Even six months ago, economists and city analysts were saying more established markets like Poland and the Czech Republic would sail through the financial crisis largely unscathed.
Eastern Europe gets €24.5bn
Eastern Europe has received its own special bailout after all. Well, not technically a bailout, it comes as “aid” via the World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Investment Bank in a bid support the region through its first technical recession since the breakdown of the communist system.
CEE’s western exposure
CEE currencies were on the ascent on Monday, alongside stocks in Warsaw. That was ahead of a much-awaited interest rate decision by the Hungarian central bank at 1pm GMT. The MNB was expected to hold rates despite worsening economic data which would normally warrant an interest rate cut just to support the forint.
The speculative attack that came in from the cold
A national psyche is a national psyche. And in Poland, it has not gone unobserved that the nation’s current travails could be linked to something a little more sinister, let’s say, than simply a deteriorating economy.
Poland prepared for currency intervention
After hardly any action, the Polish government has finally signalled it is prepared to intervene in the forex market to stem the zloty rout which is currently causing jitters.
At 5 zlotys per euro, Prime Minister Donald Tusk says Poland will sell euros from the country’s reserves.
CEE under heavy fire
The troubles facing central and eastern Europe intensify on Tuesday with news of further downgrades to western banks by Moody’s due to losses in the region. As Bloomberg reports (our emphasis):
Feb.
Forex failure continues in Poland
It’s getting bleaker by the minute in Eastern Europe. In case you didn’t catch the latest from the Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, he warned at the weekend how a growing crisis in Eastern Europe could cause nothing less than a total collapse in the West,
Fitch worried about Polish corporate fx exposure
As FT Alphaville has been warning, Poland’s economy – once believed to be very much protected from the vulnerabilities facing some other new European Union members – is facing ever greater pressures connected to its foreign exchange exposure.
ERM, convergence might not work
When fear of foreign exchange exposure wrought havoc in Eastern European markets last October, the region’s chief saving grace was a ubiquitous commitment to accelerating its entry into the euro zone; this was particularly true of Poland and Hungary.
Forex failure begins in Poland
Poland’s forex exposure as related to foreign-currency denominated mortgages has been well documented here on FT Alphaville. But in case anyone was of the view that the market was just too small to have a severe impact on the economy,
UniCredit’s Eastern Exposure
Moody’s Market Implied Ratings group has an interesting – and bearish – note out on UniCredit, highlighting concerns about the bank’s exposure to Central and Eastern Europe.
The note, written by analyst Lisa Hintz,
Another Eastern European meltdown?
Recent swiss franc strength has started to court some concern at the Swiss National Bank. Reuters reports SNB board member Thomas Jordan in particular voiced his worries on the swissie’s recent 7 per cent rise against the euro.
Things can only get worse in Eastern Europe
German manufacturing orders fell by 6.1 per cent in October from September according to the latest figures from the German Economy Ministry. Those figures were much worse than the 0.5 per cent decline expected by analysts.
Dodging constitutional bullets in Poland
Fresh from dodging bullets in Georgia, Polish President Lech Kaczynski is back in Warsaw interfering acting on all new areas of state. His latest efforts focus on a law already signed off by none-other than himself proposing an increase to bank deposit guarantees.
The big Le-borrow-ski
Moody’s has placed a negative outlook on Poland’s banking system on the basis the country’s banks are likely to suffer increased funding pressures and contracting loan growth.
This may come as a surprise to investors who were assured the region was well protected from the subprime contagion — even six months ago.
Warsaw to speed euro adoption
Poland’s government yesterday spelled out the country’s path to adopting the euro by 2012, part of a series of moves designed to help calm investors who have been retreating from the Polish zloty. The plan calls for the government to begin talks on amending the constitution,
The EE mortgage
Eastern Europe, that is, a part of the world that has seen a shocking boom in mortgage lending over the last few years.
In fact, even as most mortgage lending was beginning to freeze up in the west,