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’[Wilmot's PMI tour] Euro Area – Strong core holds periphery up
The euro area PMI was a bit weaker than the flash estimate from last week, but new orders were still up in November by 0.6 points to 55.6, after rising nearly 2 points in October.
Despite all the current turmoil,
[Wilmot's PMI tour] Hola
Spain is out…
… and it’s not great news. New orders down 1.5 points to 49.6 and employment down too.
A big silver-lining though: export orders up nearly 2 points to 55.9, the highest since 2000.
[Wilmot's PMI tour] The trend continues
Same sort of messages from Turkey, Poland and Norway: New orders were up 3.2 and 1.7 points, respectively. Norway was basically flat.
Not going to move the global needle but reassuring consistency.
[Wilmot's PMI tour] Euro periphery
Clearly growth is not the only issue for Europe’s periphery, but, without growth, there is no good way forward. More on that later on Wednesday.
Irish PMI New Orders picked up slightly in November and were just in positive territory,
[Wilmot's PMI tour] Asia sign-off
One other encouraging sign from the Asian data: export orders are up around the region, mostly by several points. Not surprisingly perhaps, Japan is the one exception.
One less encouraging sign from Asia:
[Wilmot's PMI tour] BRIC by BRIC
So far the news from Asia is good.
Production in Japan and Korea looks set to bounce in the months ahead after a pretty poor run, while China looks likely to cool a bit after four steamy months.
After India and Russia,
[Wilmot's PMI tour] The Japanese swing
Ok, it is time to get started with the hard data…
The Japanese PMI actually came out last night — ahead of the rest.
Since March, Japanese PMI new orders and production have been heading rapidly south.
[Wilmot's PMI tour] Why PMI?
Why PMI?
Embarking on a global PMI odyssey may seem a little mad when Europe is in turmoil once again. But trust us, there’s method in our PMI madness….
As far as we are concerned, the cycle in global growth remains the single most important macro influence on equities,
[Wilmot's PMI tour] Guest editing for the day…
FT Alphaville is being taken over!
From midnight London time on Tuesday, Jonathan Wilmot, the chief global strategist at Credit Suisse’s investment banking division, will be in control of the site (again).
The return of (very cautious) optimism
Another favorable Fed manufacturing survey this morning, this one from the Dallas branch, which reports that all indicators of factory activity in the state of Texas are pointing upwards.
As Calculated Risk notes,
Jonathan Wilmot: Hell or Heaven in 2011?
Jonathan Wilmot, global strategist at Credit Suisse Investment Bank, sets the scene for next Wednesday’s ‘Around the world in 21 PMIs’ guest editing day at FT Alhpaville.
Heaven or Hell in 2011?
Three questions loom large in our thinking about the coming year.
Back to earth – the UK GDP rocket
Remember that forecast-busting UK GDP reading? You know, the one boosted by a particularly strong performance from the construction sector.
Well, Tuesday’s purchasing managers survey puts it into context.
Manufacturing comeback
US markets jumped early this morning before reversing a bit:
As to what might have caused the early spike…
If the September ISM PMI was a correction to August’s surprisingly good readings, the October numbers are a welcome snap-back in the right direction.
The unsinkable, unfalsifiable HMS QE2
Did you hear the one about the superliner that squeezed under a Danish bridge with just an inch and half to spare?
It’s getting that way with HMS QE2.
Exhibit A — More decent UK data in the shape of a manufacturing PMI,
Another rollover to worry about?
How worried should we be about the rollover in lead economic indicators?
As Lex noted earlier this week, Economic Cycle Research Institute has scolded pundits, such as SocGen’s Albert Edwards, for misinterpreting its widely followed indices.
Bond insurer death watch, FGIC edition
According to the investor relations section of the website of FGIC, the bond insurer part-owned by PMI Group and Blackstone:
FGIC provides irrevocable and unconditional guaranty of timely payment of principal and interest on the securities it insures.
S&P issues a fresh warning on US mortgage insurers
In April, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the entire rated universe of private mortgage insurers, and mostly by multiple notches. On Wednesday, the rating agency decided that drastic action didn’t fully reflect just how,
Europe’s north/south divide
Thursday’s bulky European dataset — which included PMI, unemployment and retail sales — appears to have confirmed that Europe is in for a two-track recovery: France and Germany are leading the advance,
China’s fake recovery
Renewed commodity demand and a rise in manufacturing activity in China are being heralded by many as justification for the global “green shoots” recovery argument.
Much of this sentiment was reinforced this week when Hong Kong brokerage CLSA reported a rise in its Chinese purchasing managers’ index.
The travails of the financial guarantors
There’s been a slew of (mostly negative) ratings actions on the financial guaranty sector – the bond insurers, mortgage insurers and the like – recently. Here’s a recap.
Subsequent to a warning from FGIC’s auditor that there is substantial doubt over the bond insurer’s ability to “continue as a going concern,”
S&P downgrades the whole US mortgage insurance sector
Downgrade Friday continues.
In yet another sign of the continued distress in the US housing market, Standard & Poor’s downgraded its rated universe of private mortgage insurers, and mostly by multiple notches.
Moody’s sets its sights on the mortgage insurers
Moody’s increasingly bearish view on the US housing market has led to a swath of negative ratings actions since September. On Friday, for instance, it threatened to downgrade four of the largest mortgage insurers in North America – PMI,
Sector snap: monoline insurers and the GSEs
It’s getting harder to play the mortgage market, if the relative performance of the varied monoline insurers and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is any thing to go by.
Ambac and MBIA are up and down like a [CENSORED! Ed.] this morning:
Moody’s warns on $75bn of Australian RMBS
Now it’s Australia’s turn. Moody’s said Monday that it may downgrade A$83bn ($75.5bn) worth of Australian mortgage-backed debt, in the latest spillover from the US subprime crisis, reports Reuters.
Moody’s said it had taken the action after placing US bond insurer PMI Mortgage Insurance on watch for a possible downgrade following rising loan losses in the US.