RSS feedpayrolls
’Non-farm payrolls 243,000
By Cardiff Garcia and Joseph Cotterill
Uncaptured seasonality effects or not, this is what a healthy employment report looks like.
Many of the underlying details look even better than the headline numbers,
US non-farm payrolls 200,000 in December, unemployment at 8.5 per cent
Consensus expectations were for a rise of 150,000 jobs in December.
At first glance it looks like a good report. The fall in the unemployment rate was driven more by a rise in employment than by another big fall in the labour force.
More on the ADP report
Every time there’s an ADP employment report that runs away from consensus expectations, the masses start bickering about whether it’s a helpful predictor of the next BLS payrolls report.
The obvious response is that ADP mirrors payrolls fairly closely over long stretches of time,
An awful June employment report: payrolls up 18,000…
… and unemployment rises to 9.2 per cent.
A disastrous report, with not a single piece of good news that we can discern. To wit:
– private sector jobs increased 57,000; public sector jobs lost 39,000
– Employment-to-population ratio declined from 58.4 to 58.2 per cent,
Payrolls fail, rose 54,000 in May
Cue a big collective “ouch”.
The consensus was for a reading of around 150,000, following a dire week of US data releases. The unemployment rate is now at 9.1 per cent. Estimates for the last two months were also revised down:
What just happenened? Slides, declines, and revisions
by John McDermott and Cardiff Garcia
A risk-off day if ever there was one.
– The S&P had its worst day since August 2010:
– Ten-year Treasury yields plummeted to well beneath 3 per cent:
When indicators keep disappointing
Need a silver lining or a “Yeah, but” to the disastrous ADP private employment numbers from this morning?
This, via RQD Economics, is all we could find:
Apart from the turn of the year, ADP employment growth has underestimated private payroll growth in 12 of the last 14 months.
Further further reading
For the commute home, or while rocking out to Paradise City, or while shielding yourself from the November Rain, or while chasing your Rocket Queen, or while exercising Patience; and because you Don’t Cry,
[Rolling updates]: Nonfarm payrolls up 192,000
We’ll continue to have updates as we make our way through the report, so keep checking back:
1) At a glance, a decent report, very close to expectations, and after upward revisions to December and January (each by close 30,000),
Payrolls snowed under, but unemployment rate drops again
We’ll keep updating this post with analysis as we make our way through it, but for now here’s the link and an excerpt from the report itself is below.
Updates:
1) The headline number is way below the consensus expectation of +145k and even further below the giddy market whispers before release time.
More thoughts on the employment report
Let’s jump right in:
1. To dispense with the obvious, the headline number of 103,000 new jobs fell a good deal short of the roughly 150,000 expected. Including subsequent revisions, this is what the payroll changes in the last six months look like:
Lowering claims, lowering expectations
Another day then and another round of jobs numbers to put the cautiously into cautiously optimistic.
Payrolls are out Friday and with them a better idea of the extent and pace of improvement — Reuters reports that nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased 175,000 last month,
Stimulating, selectively and statistically significantly
The tax cut package is proving stimulative already – at least in terms of encouraging debate in the wonkosphere.
We continue to share the unoriginal view that extending the tax cuts for those earning above $250k will not provide the best bang to buck ratio.
Payrolls: upside surprise, but…
We don’t do listicles here very often, but the format seems appropriate for chopping up Friday’s payroll report — given how much data there is to chew on.
So…
1. The headline number — 151,000 jobs added in October — was more than anybody was expecting,
So much for “better than expected”
As if we hadn’t already rained on the expectations-beating parade of recent economic news, along comes this new chart from the Conference Board:
The key points:
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in August for the second time in the past four months.
These are the voyages of the starship QE2
This is a Vulcan death grip:
And according to SocGen’s über-bear Albert Edwards, that’s exactly the state in which equity investors find themselves in now.
Or as he puts it (our emphasis):
The current situation reminds me of mid 2007.
There’s hope for US payrolls yet, says RBC
US non-farm payrolls came in at a dismal -131,000 in July.
Even worse, the original June figure of -125,000 was revised downwards to -221,000. Meanwhile private nonfarm payrolls came in at +71,000 — weaker than the +90,000 that been expected.
A Friday payroll fizzle
Post payrolls, yields on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury are falling off a cliff, while S&P 500 futures are gently sliding:
Those unbelievable US payrolls
Just how amazing were the US payroll numbers released on Friday?
So amazing they’re verging on the (perish the thought) unbelievable, according to some analysts.
The consensus forecast among analysts for the November job loss had been -130,000,
Payroll Friday – the Goldman take
From Jan Hatzuis’ team at Goldman Sachs (emphasis ours):
The best news from the [US] labor market in recent months has been evidence that layoffs continue to decline. However, the other half of the labor market picture—hiring—is still missing as firms largely are utilizing their existing workforces to push up production rather than adding new workers.
US unemployment hits 10.2 per cent
US non-farm payrolls fell by 190,000 jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. That compared to a general consensus figure for a loss of 175,000 jobs, according to Reuters.
Figures for September,
[MoneyTech] Why trading machines don’t like news releases
Well, who knew?
Algorithmic FX trading bots — which use computer formulae to trade currencies at high frequency — apparently don’t like news releases, or at least, not initially, according to a new working paper from the Federal Reserve.
The not-so-subtle management of markets
All things considered, Wall Street was taking the latest payroll figures in its stride on Friday. For both the Dow and the S&P 500 at the opening, cash markets were showing roughly half the losses predicted earlier by their respective futures.
Quote du jour, when labour stats give you lemons…
Make lemonade! That’s what Bloomberg’s done in its report of the latest US payroll figures:
Mapping the unemployment crisis, US edition
Felix Salmon over at Reuters is right: this is a great graphic.
Much in the same vein as the Guardian’s UK unemployment map we liked so much earlier this week, this one, from Slate, shows US employment data in terms of the net change in employment.
Financial crisis, UK payment system edition
CHAPs. That would be the UK’s ‘Clearing House Automated Payment System’, which is used by account holders the nation over for the completion of large transactions, facilitating such things as house purchases and other large payments etc.
US Dec non-farm payrolls fall by 524,000
Phew, what a relief.
After all sorts of dreadful whisper numbers the payroll numbers are bad, but not as bad as some may have feared.
WASHINGTON, Jan 9 (Reuters) – U.S. employers slashed payrolls by 524,000 in December,
Payroll losses: heading for a million?
693,000?
Pah!
The latest ADP payroll figures (for December – just out) are certainly grim, and they very much confirm that the US economy is still heading on a steep downward course.
The official number,
Payrolls on Goldman’s mind
Can the system take any more drastic indicators?
Goldman Sachs has cut its forecast for tomorrow’s closely watched US payroll numbers to -300,000 in October. That would be the fourth sharpest decline in 20 years,