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’The UK’s inflation myth
Told ya.
From Reuters…
RTRS-UK NOV CPI 0.2 PCT MM, 4.8 PCT YY (FORECAST 4.8 PCT YY)
RTRS-UK NOV RPI 0.2 PCT MM, 5.2 PCT YY (FORECAST 5.1 PCT YY)
RTRS-UK NOV RPIX 0.2 PCT MM, 5.3 PCT YY (FORECAST 5.2 PCT YY)
RTRS-UK NOV CPI ALL GOODS 5.1 PCT YY,
A claimant count quandry
There is a bit of a debate developing regarding Wednesday’s employment data and in particular the significant increase in the claimant count.
For example, FT Alphaville quoted Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight saying:
UK retail recession watch: Royal Wedding hangover
UK retail sales figures are out and they have managed to undershoot expectations.
The City was braced for a fall for May as consumers put their hands back in their pockets after splashing out in April (because of the good weather,
The UK’s vanishing productivity (and the data’s gone too)
FT Alphaville loves data mysteries — and there’s something particularly ironic about fourth-quarter UK productivity data not being, erm, produced on time.
Anyway, the UK’s Office for National Statistics said earlier this week that the Q4 productivity numbers scheduled for Wednesday would be delayed until April 7 because of “data quality issues.”
Homo Britannicus Inflatus [updated]
Desperately chugging the champagne as the lights go out — or, 2011′s new and improved UK inflation basket:
Sparkling wines are also being added due to their increased consumption, showing that despite difficult economic times,
‘BoE rolls hand-grenade under ONS inflation,’ JPM says
Buried a bit deep in Wednesday’s inflation report from the Bank of England — a little from BoE governor Mervyn King to the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The central bank is now claiming that CPI inflation may have been “biased down”
Dear Chancellor…
Time to get the quill out again, Governor.
From the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday morning:
So, that’s the fifth consecutive quarter that UK CPI inflation has remained above target and the 10th time Bank of England chief Mervyn King will have been forced to write to the Chancellor and explain why:
Record-breaking, forecast-busting UK inflation
Hitting the tape now, some uncomfortable reading for the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.
Via Reuters:
RTRS-UK DEC CPI +1.0 PCT MM, BIGGEST EVER MM RISE; +3.7; PCT YY (CONSENSUS +3.3 PCT YY),
UK employment *fall*/*fail*
Yep, the UK claimant count unexpectedly rose in January. In fact it was the biggest rise since July.
From the Office of National Statistics on Wednesday:
The claimant count in January 2010 was 1.64m,
It’s over
After six quarters the UK’s longest, and possibly deepest recession since the second world war has ended – but only JUST.
Q4 GDP rose 0.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter, well below forecasts. (A 0.4 per cent rise was expected).
UK GDP revised…
… but not by much.
From Reuters on Wednesday:
And in pictorial form:
All of which means those economists who rubbished the initial reading have still got egg on their face.
Still,
Total production nightmare, or is it?
Yes, we know. The UK Q1 GDP figures are horrible. But for a truly frighteningly experience we thought we would direct you specifically to the two following components: annual change in total production output,
Deflation avoided, phew
Back to 1960!
Those expecting the first negative retail price index number in the UK since 1960, will be disappointed. The latest CPI/RPI figures from the Office of National Statistics show deflation has been successfully avoided in February. Here’s the Reuters table,
One nearly down, one to go: UK GDP contracts
Ahead of the official Office of National Statistics GDP figures, are these from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, showing that UK GDP contracted 0.2 per cent between June and August,
ONS brings National Rock into the public accounts
Best we stop pretending. The statisticians have. Northern Rock is no more.
The Office of National Statistics has dealt the fragile facade of the bank’s private sector-status a heavy blow, saying on Thursday that it would now be classified as a public sector entity for “statistical purposes.”