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’The Roubini-Rosenberg indicator
We missed this on Friday… H/T the delightful Brazilian Bubble.
Further reading:
Hold the presses, Dr Doom is turning bullish – WSJ MarketBeat
A new bull market? Are you out of your mind? – BI
Plotting a disorderly EZ break-up
Will the eurozone survive? If so, in what guise? If not, how will it be broken up and what might the consequences be?
These, among others, are some of the key questions currently occupying the minds of the financial great and good.
Where’s a good crisis when you need it? [updated]
Tough news for both the prophet and the profiteer of doom.
John Paulson, who made his name and fortune shorting the sub-prime bubble, on Tuesday said he was reducing the leverage of his Advantage Plus fund to 1.1 from 1.5 times.
Kiss of death for gold?
This was the gold price on Wednesday:
To describe the move as “tanking” — we think — is fair.
It comes just days after the GLD gold trust officially dethroned the SPY (S&P 500) fund as the largest ETF by market value.
Finance, more progressive than policy?
“At a certain stage of development, the material productive forces of society come into conflict with the existing relations of production or – this merely expresses the same thing in legal terms – with the property relations within this framework of which they have operated hitherto”.
Roubini’s guide to a Greek debt restructuring
Cut, paste and mail to your favourite holder of Hellenic debt:
It’s a ‘how-to’ manual for a Greek debt restructuring from Nouriel Roubini (plus Arnab Das, Jennifer Kapila, James Mason, David Nowakowski,
Get specific on muni bonds, say Roubini analysts
Municipal bonds, doctor doom will see you now.
The WSJ reports Wednesday that Roubini Global Economics analysts David Nowakowski and Prajakta Bhide estimate there will be about $100bn of muni bond “defaults”
Economic forecasting delusions
The Boston Globe has a smart piece that draws on the latest research about one of our favourite topics — the perils of economic forecasting.
Having singled out everyone’s favourite Doomster, Nouriel Roubini,
Open letter to a closed mortgage market
It looks as if his recent experience in the housing market has irked Nouriel Roubini (and friends).
Just making the DC Christmas post deadline Tuesday morning is a letter (H/T Politico) from the economist and a few dozen colleagues asking US regulators to develop national standards for originating,
US inventory drama
Something of a scrap has broken out between Nouriel Roubini and Clusterstock’s Joe Weisenthal on the back of Friday’s bang-on-expectation Q3 US GDP release.
Actually, it seems more of a defensive back-peddling strop on Roubini’s part.
Nouriel Roubini and the 40% Rule
Real Time Economics posts a funny item discussing the use of the “40% Rule”, which is a way to forecast a scenario with just enough conviction to ensure you’ll get credit if it materialises, while simultaneously protecting yourself if it doesn’t.
And you thought we were bearish
How best to summarise this long, depressing outlook on the global economy by Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer? We’ll give it a shot.
First, no matter who you are, you are too optimistic:
However, as we all know from human experience,
Dave fires back
Dave Rosenberg has not taken Birinyi Associates’ attack on his bearishness lying down. In fact, Big Dave has taken – like lightning – to his newsletter.
First, a broadside against his insufficiently ursine compatriots:
Not the ‘mother of all carry trades’?
FT Alphaville noted on Thursday how the USD three-month Libor rate had, for the first time since August 2009, moved back above the three-month JPY Libor rate.
It’s worth reminding at this stage what Dr.
Davos time!
The great, the good and the simply pompous of finance have been gathering in Davos, Switzerland for the annual World Economic Forum on Tuesday.
Lucky for us — the great uninvited — the rise in social media means we too can feel part of the buzz and economic hot air conjecture.
`There’s no bubble in gold,’ CIBC says
The idea of a `gold bubble’ went stratospheric in recent days, as economist Nouriel Roubini blasted the “barbarous relic” and the gold bugs who followed it.
And indeed, on Thursday it seemed Roubini was somewhat vindicated,
A ticking time-bomb or the mother of all carry trades?
Judging by comments on some of our correlation-related posts, people seem a bit touchy about the idea that the dollar is stoking a cross-asset bubble.
Nevertheless, those saying it is so are standing firm.
[The Lehman Anniversary] Quotes du crise
FT Alphaville presents a selection of visionary — and not so visionary — quotes from the Lehman crisis.
To start, Dick Fuld, CEO of Lehman, on October 6, 2008:
I’m not sure I would say it was a house of cards .
It’s an economist-eat-economist world
Paul Krugman, never the shy retiring type, could well have started something akin to the debate sparked by Michael Lewis’s take on the “end” of Wall Street with his exhaustive and thought-provoking New York Times article — “How Did Economists Get It So Wrong?”
Who saw it coming and the primacy of accounting
Massive hat tip to Chris Cook for pointing out this fascinating paper.
In it, Dirk J Bezemer of Gronington University attempts to show that certain contrarian economic models — and economists — anticipated the credit crisis and the ensuing recession.
More dollar deliberations
Wednesday’s dollar dive (as illustrated below by the movements of the dollar index) is, according to some reports, being put down to yet more rather non-dollar friendly signals from China.
Specifically,
Nouriel’s ‘perfect storm’
So the ubiquitous doomster, Nouriel Roubini, is at it again (the man never stops).
“Don’t believe the optimists”, he warns in his latest article in Forbes. Indeed, with news on Friday that the UK has been warned by the IMF to rein in its public spending,
Quote du jour, Roubini ‘green shoots’ edition
Nouriel Roubini on the ‘green shoots’ sentiment currently doing the rounds:
Related links:
The Susan Boyle Factor – FT Alphaville
Optimistically, pessimistic in the US – FT Alphaville
The Susan Boyle factor
What do equity rallies have in common with the whizzing around in cyberspace of the latest Youtube sensation — a clip of Britain’s Got Talent contestant Susan Boyle wowing the judging panel of Simon Cowell,
Stresstify
Roubini posits that the stress test scenarios are already more optimistic than reality.
Related link:
Stress testing the stress test scenarios – Nouriel Roubini on RGE Monitor
Financial feud: Cramer vs Roubini
Doom-mongering economist Nouriel Roubini and outspoken CNBC host Jim Cramer are big crowd pleasers on FT Alphaville – for varying reasons.
So we thought we’d reprint the following, from the New York Post:
Roubini sees light at the end of the tunnel
But in typical Roubini fashion, it is very, very far away; more of a pinprick of phospherescence than a beam of brilliance, in fact.
From the English translation of an article in Italy’s Il Sole 24 Ore.
Nouriel Roubini is a Ponzi
We wouldn’t have thought to ask Nouriel Roubini about Bernie Madoff’s alleged Ponzi scheme. But someone else has, and it’s thrown up an interesting tirade from the master of economic doom and gloom. Reprinted in its full forcefulness below,
