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’Caging unilateral risk
There’s a great note from Marc Ostwald of Monument Securities this Thursday morning.
And he gets right to the heart of the issue.
The problem isn’t so much where FX and bond rates are going, but rather the uncertainty related to rogue unilateral actions of particular governments and central banks.
Nordea hunts down a Norwegian interest rate typo
Price action in the Norwegian krone on Tuesday:
Last week Norway’s central bank said it was holding interest rates at 2.25 per cent, but indicated through various data sheets and background material that an interest rate rise could come in either August or September.
It’s all falling apart for Greece on Friday…
First the Norwegians may decide they’re not playing ball with the €25m they’re due to give Greece.
And then Fitch Ratings throws in the towel on Greece’s BB+ rating. It’s now rating Greece B+, which shifts the country from the “non-investment grade speculative”
Another reason to flee north
It’s probably safe to say the Norwegian krone has already been pretty well tipped in 2011, given a certain well-known correlation:
But there’s more to Norway than just oil.
Via Simon Derrick of BNY Mellon:
Go north, jaded government bond investor?
No, not north to German bunds. Further north.
Pär Magnusson and Filip Andersson — Scandinavian macro and fixed income analysts at RBS — have a few things they want to get off their chest at the moment,
[Wilmot's PMI tour] The trend continues
Same sort of messages from Turkey, Poland and Norway: New orders were up 3.2 and 1.7 points, respectively. Norway was basically flat.
Not going to move the global needle but reassuring consistency.
Citi sued by Norwegian central bank
Inevitable, really. Though we wouldn’t have expected the staid Norwegian central bank to be the first (?) to take up legal arms.
After the US Securities and Exchange Commission exposed Citi’s super senior subprime slip — in which the bank misled investors over its subprime exposure between July and October 2007 — now come the lawsuits.
Adventures in equity knife-catching, SWF edition (updated)
If you’re a BP investor who thought twice about catching the falling knife of the firm’s post-Gulf spill shares this summer — well, spare a thought for Norway.
Thanks to the government’s sovereign wealth fund,
Norway doesn’t need no stinkin’ stress tests
The European Union’s banking stress tests cover 91 banks in 20 countries.
Seven of those financials are Nordic — but none of them are Norwegian.
Norway is of course, not a member of the EU, but it keeps close ties,
‘Gun shy markets’, or 6 reasons why the EUR carry trade has blown up
Arresting stuff from Alan Ruskin of RBS, who has just pinged out an “Alpha Alert”:
Pure panic. It is rare to see a day where the news flow fits so poorly with the decimation in the risk trade, from currencies to high yield to the once sweet and innocent money market.
The interesting lesson from the RBA rate hike
When the Reserve Bank of Australia took the plunge on Monday and became the first G20 central bank to raise interest rates since the global downturn began, it triggered big gains for equity markets around the globe.
The ECB as ‘liquidity monster’
An elegant note out from UBS analysts John Paul Crutchley and Alastair Ryan on Friday — discussing the perils of the European Central Bank’s liquidity ops.
Here’s the crux of the problem, according to UBS:
Erstwhile Samfundets Støtter
CMA reports on Thursday that Norway has been overtaken by Germany as the safest country in terms of sovereign CDS. Here’s the data, as it stands now:
The US dollar, the Norwegian krone and the ‘ugly contest’
All eyes have been on the Fed in the past 24 hours – and all currency gyrations, particularly the dollar’s sharp depreciation – have been attributed to the Fed’s move to spend $300bn on buying long-term Treasuries,
Norway set to dip into $332bn oil fund
Norway is poised to dip more deeply into its $332bn sovereign wealth fund to finance a new fiscal spending package. The oil-rich Norwegians will use the fund, the world’s second largest after Abu Dhabi,