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’A Friday payroll fizzle
Post payrolls, yields on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury are falling off a cliff, while S&P 500 futures are gently sliding:
US non-farm payrolls FALL 85,000…
… in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday.
That’s right a FALL of 85,000.
Now, that’s a big disappointment and well below expectations, which admittedly were all over the place.
I move markets, therefore I am a US NFP
On Friday, the preliminary December numbers for US non-farm payrolls will be published.
Consensus is for a decline of 8,000 after November’s 11,000 drop — a smaller-than-expected fall for most of the market,
More US non-farm payroll questions
This time it’s the turn of the usually unflappable Dennis Gartman — author of the Gartman Letter and CNBC talking head– to question the veracity of Friday’s unbelievable US payroll numbers.
As he sums up in his Tuesday note (our emphasis):
Payroll Friday – the Goldman take
From Jan Hatzuis’ team at Goldman Sachs (emphasis ours):
The best news from the [US] labor market in recent months has been evidence that layoffs continue to decline. However, the other half of the labor market picture—hiring—is still missing as firms largely are utilizing their existing workforces to push up production rather than adding new workers.
On outperforming the US Bureau of Economic Analysis
On Wednesday, FT Alphaville received the following press release from investment research firm Trimtabs regarding the veracity of official US job numbers (our emphasis):
TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Economy Lost 255,000,
Simply, yen-tastic job numbers
Just look at that yen go:
It seems bad US jobs numbers have reassured investors that the “mother of all carry trades” is completely tenable and that because liquidity won’t be removed from the US or the UK any time soon,
US August non-farm payrolls fall by 216,000
US non-farm payrolls fell by 216,000 jobs in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday.
That compared to a general consensus figure for a loss of 225,000 jobs, according to Reuters.
The unemployment rate rose from 9.4 per cent in July to to 9.7 per cent last month — the highest since June,
On misreading non-farm payroll data
We reported last week how Trimtabs CEO Charles Biderman was concerned investors were misreading initial US non-farm payroll data on account of not fully understanding the methodology that goes into compiling the estimates.
US July non-farm payrolls fall by 247,000
US non-farm payrolls fell by 247,000 jobs in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. That compared to a general consensus figure for a loss of 320,000 jobs, according to Reuters. Figures for June,
The problem with non-farm payroll numbers
Yes, everything is wonderful, stocks have been rallying, and the pitter patter of people going back to work is supposedly to be demonstrated in Friday’s US non-farm payroll figures.
Reuters puts the consensus figure at a loss of 320,000 jobs in July,
Doth the elusive ‘W’ raise its head?
US non-farm payrolls as reported on Thursday (H/T Josh Noble):
Related link:
US non-farm payrolls fall 467,000 in June – FT Alphaville
The ‘part-timezation’ of America
David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff flagged a different way of looking at US unemployment figures on Monday; rather than noting the slowing rise in unemployment, he pointed in the direction of the number of people employed part-time and average hours worked.
US payrolls fall 539k in April, less than expected
US non-farm payrolls fell by 539,000 job in April, according to figures from the US Labor Department. The number was smaller than the 595,000 job losses expected by the market in the month. The unemployment rate meanwhile rose to 8.9 per cent vs 8.5 per cent in March.
US payrolls fall 663,000 in March, jobless rate 8.5 pct
US non-farm payrolls as compiled by the Labour department have come in worse than expected, while the January data was revised to job losses of 741,000 in the month – the biggest decline since 1949. As Reuters reports:
US non-farm payrolls fall 651,000
The US non-farm payrolls number is pretty much in line with Reuters’ consensus of -648,000, although we note the previous month’s number has been revised down to -655,000 from -598,oo0.
Here’s the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ statement and a summary
Here’s Bloomberg on the numbers: