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’Non-farm payrolls 243,000
By Cardiff Garcia and Joseph Cotterill
Uncaptured seasonality effects or not, this is what a healthy employment report looks like.
Many of the underlying details look even better than the headline numbers,
Winter seasonality, employment report preview edition
Warning: we start by rambling about a bunch of stuff that may not interest anyone besides methodology geeks. If you want to jump straight to how this morning’s BLS employment report might be affected by seasonality issues,
US unemployment rate falls to 8.6 per cent, payrolls up 120,000
Consensus expectations were for 9 per cent and 125,000.
But don’t be deceived by the eye-catching drop in the unemployment rate: this report was good but not great.
The fall in the unemployment rate,
Non-farm payrolls climbed 80k in October, unemployment falls to 9 per cent
An 80,000 rise in non-farm payrolls is disappointing, but something exorcised the devil from the report’s underlying details, which were better than hoped.
There were big upward revisions to the prior two months,
Mild upside surprise with payrolls at 103,000
Sighs of relief all round as the non-farm payrolls report for September steps lightly over an expectations bar that was just inches above ground.
We’ll have a breakdown and further commentary during US Markets Live,
Payrolls: zero net new jobs added, unemployment rate flat
The fears were valid, it seems.
Nonfarm payrolls stayed exactly flat in August — a month in which the drumbeat of negative economic signals was amplified to piercing levels.
Instant market reaction:
About that better than expected jobs number…
Some reaction to better than expected non-farm July payroll numbers, following an August sell-off, from Reuters:
“Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief because the employment news was bad, but not terrible.
Payrolls fail, rose 54,000 in May
Cue a big collective “ouch”.
The consensus was for a reading of around 150,000, following a dire week of US data releases. The unemployment rate is now at 9.1 per cent. Estimates for the last two months were also revised down:
What just happenened? Slides, declines, and revisions
by John McDermott and Cardiff Garcia
A risk-off day if ever there was one.
– The S&P had its worst day since August 2010:
– Ten-year Treasury yields plummeted to well beneath 3 per cent:
Non-farm payrolls up 216,000
Non-Farm payrolls rose by 216,000 jobs in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Analysts had been expecting an increase of 190k jobs in the month. The unemployment rate came in at at 8.6 per cent,
Trade the weather, not consensus?
Just an idea, of course.
But it comes via JPMorgan’s Seamus Mac Gorain, and it’s part of a 12-page study covering more than a decade of intraday trading data around big economic releases.
Here’s his thinking:
US jobs optimism, the test
There are indicators and then there are indicators, as seen in the debate surrounding the US jobs optimism highlighted in this week’s private-sector payroll figures from the ADP National Employment Report.
Lowering claims, lowering expectations
Another day then and another round of jobs numbers to put the cautiously into cautiously optimistic.
Payrolls are out Friday and with them a better idea of the extent and pace of improvement — Reuters reports that nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased 175,000 last month,
Macro Live 4: PMI wrap
FT Alphaville’s new feature, Macro Live — our periodic real-time chat about the US economy — returns on Wednesday, December 1.
We’ll be recapping the PMI releases from around the world in the last 24 hours,
US non-farm payrolls – down by 95,000
US non-farm payrolls fell by 95,000 jobs in September while the unemployment rate stayed at 9.6 per cent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The decline was much more than expected by the market.
Guess the US jobs number
Competition time!
Guess the jobless number from Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report.
The winner will receive a special (yet to be determined) FT Alphaville prize.
The data will be released at 1.30pm (BST) and remember,
A revisionist history of the week begining Aug 30, 2010
There’s no pleasing some people.
You might have thought last week was a good one for data what with the ISM and payrolls numbers beating expectations. But it wasn’t, according to Jan Hatzius, the chief US economist at Goldman Sachs,
Final thoughts on the payroll numbers
As usual AV readers did a good job of teasing out some of the nuances in Friday’s payroll report, and for more analytical heavy lifting we are outsourcing to Calculated Risk:
The underlying details of the employment report were mixed.
US non-farm payrolls – down 54,000
US non-farm payrolls fell by 54,000 jobs in August while the unemployment rate remained constant at 9.6 per cent, according to The Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The decline was much less than expected by the market.
Those /important/crucial/vital US jobs figures
Yep it’s another freaking economic indicator. But an important one – US non-farm payrolls.
And with markets seemingly on hold ahead of the _____ report (please insert your favoured adjective) there’s
US non-farms — down 131,000
US non-farm payrolls declined sharply by 131,000 in July, far below consensus, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday.
Private payrolls rose 71,000 — below the consensus — perhaps providing a better measure of the employment situation given large census lay-offs.
US non-farm payrolls – mixed
US non-farm payrolls fell 125,000 in June the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday but private payrolls rose by 83,000 (although this was below the consensus of 110,000).
Key flashes via Reuters:
US non-farm payrolls rise 431,000, jobless rate falls to 9.7 %
US non-farm payrolls rose 431,000 on Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. This was below a Bloomberg poll of economists which had forecast the data would show a 536,000 rise, which would have been the largest since 1983.
US April non-farm payrolls rise 290k, beat forecasts
US non-farm payrolls rose by 290,000 jobs in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a gain of 190,000 jobs and Reuters had forecast a gain of 200,000 after March’s rise of 230,000 jobs.
March non-farm payrolls rise by 162,000, fewer than expected
US non-farm payrolls rose by 162,000 jobs in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast a gain of 190,000 jobs after February’s drop of 36,000.
The unemployment rate held steady at 9.7 per cent for the third straight month,
TrimTabs vs the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Round 2)
Last Friday’s non-farm payroll numbers provided the market with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ seasonally-adjusted revisions.
For US investment research firm TrimTabs, which publishes its own competing jobs estimates,
And the 2009 US payroll revisions show…
. . . significantly more job cuts in 2009 than originally estimated — about 617,000 more in fact.
Here’s the relevant table from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
The sharpest revision was for March;
US payrolls fell in January – 20,000 jobs lost
Goldman were right – US employers cut jobs in January.
Payrolls fell by 20,000, significantly more than economists had forecast, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday afternoon.
A Friday payroll fizzle
Post payrolls, yields on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury are falling off a cliff, while S&P 500 futures are gently sliding:
US non-farm payrolls FALL 85,000…
… in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday.
That’s right a FALL of 85,000.
Now, that’s a big disappointment and well below expectations, which admittedly were all over the place.