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’Policymaker potency in the next US crisis: part II
In part one, the appetizer, we quickly looked at whether the US banking sector is stronger than it was in 2008, as Lewis Alexander, the new Nomura chief US economist, argues. On the face of it, he’s right — balance sheets appear stronger,
How much is there left to sell?
European sovereign debt, that is.
And the answer is over €500bn, according to Nomura, which has pieced together data from the IMF and national sources to come up with an updated picture of foreign exposure globally to the Eurozone.
I will happily position against optimism on the US economy
Say what you like about Bob Janjuah (and plenty of readers have – Ed) but he always has a view.
And Friday’s report — an appetizer for his 2012 outlook piece — is no exception. A hard default is probable in Europe,
Breaking even at Goldman Sachs
Thought the recent pick-up in trading volumes would be good news for the big investment and universal banks?
Think again.
Nomura’s US banks analyst Glenn Schorr has just taken the red pen to forecasts for the second time in a month.
Nomura make the (likely, ambiguous) case for the defense
Not intentionally, perhaps, but Nomura’s equity analysts do a half-decent Perry Mason impersonation in a note sent out late Friday.
The note offers a fresh estimate for how much the banks sued by the FHFA stand to lose,
Bob Janjuah’s 3 Words
Bob ‘The Bear’ Janjuah has filed his last piece before heading off for his summer hols.
The Nomura man is still forecasting a risk-on melt-up over summer (the S&P 500 into the 1,400s by September,
If (when) China slows down
Earlier on Monday we looked at China’s pork-led inflation and declining imports, only the latest data that would seem to reinforce increasing concern among market observers about the potential impact of a Chinese slowdown on global growth.
Man in Japan
After losing a lot (some estimated up to $2bn) as a result of Japan’s March 11 earthquake and tsunami, and giving a bit ($1m) to Japan’s relief effort, Man Group is recouping some losses and is back in serious business in Japan – and wants everybody to know about it.
Bob Janjuah – told you so America
Nomura’s sceptical strategist Bob ‘the bear’ Janjuah is feeling very pleased with himself, following S&P’s decision to revise its long term outlook on the USA to “negative”.
As well he might.
Only last week Bob wrote the following:
Brazil’s balance sheet, oil, and the BRL (part 2)
In Part 1 we introduced a recent Nomura paper on how the Brazilian Real is currently overvalued. Here’s the explanation.
The BRL as an oil play
The answer lies in the big oil fields discovered in the last several years off Brazil’s Atlantic coast,
An audience with Lloyd Blankfein
Nomura’s banking analyst Glenn Schorr recently caught up with the Goldman boss (plus chief financial officer David Viniar).
And Schorr was able to quiz him on some of the pressing issues of the moment:
Competition time! [we have a winner]
Courtesy of Nomura, we have a pair of tickets to give away for this year’s Varsity Match.
So we’re asking for a suitable caption on this:
Tickets go to the best entry submitted in the comment section below.
Infected – German bunds
Is nothing immune from the sovereign debt woes of the European periphery?
Apparently not.
Now, throughout the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the bund has been the beneficiary of safe-haven flows coming out of the periphery — Portugal,
Something for the weekend
Here are a couple of contrarian views to mull this weekend.
The first comes from Greg Gibbs at RBS, who says the case for shorting the dollar no longer looks clear-cut:
The market has developed an expectation that the Fed will deliver a big QE on 3 November.
A rash of MMF rating withdrawals at Moody’s
The latest money market funds to be stripped of their triple-A credit ratings by Moody’s belong to Goldman Sachs.
From a Friday statement:
Moody’s withdraws Aaa/MR1+ ratings of two Goldman Sachs money market feeder funds
London,
Former Nomura fund chairman fingers Nomura Asset Management to the SEC
It’s a bit of an odd one this. So here’s a straight story to start:
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Nomura Asset Management USA, the American offshoot of the Japanese bank’s asset management business, has been reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission by the former chairman and chief executive of one of its funds.
Nomura’s horrible quarter
It says a lot about recent business conditions for Japan’s biggest investment bank that an 80 per cent year-on-year plunge in quarterly net profit — reported on Friday — was at the high end of forecasts.
Nomura thinks you should be more bearish on Hungary
Are you worried about Hungary? Why not?
According to analysts Peter Attard Montalto and Olgay Buyukkayali at Nomura, policymakers and investors are a tad complacent about the outlook for the troubled European country.
Unstable structure, do not enter
That warning comes from Nomura’s Mike Prew who thinks property stocks, or real estate investment trusts (REITs), are at risk from a second wave of rights and possibly dividend cuts.
The highly regarded analyst (and property bear) reckons the accounting presentation of REITs must be re-examined because revenues are being flattered by a string of one-offs and other curiosities:
Nomura goes all gaikokujin
Just a small setback along the glittering path to globalisation for Japan’s number one broker Nomura, but nothing to get in the way of its bold internationalisation push.
As Reuters reported at the weekend:
GBK watch
It has been a volatile start to the week for the Great British Krona.
Cable ran up to $1.52, then hit a brick wall presumably as the market digested Sunday’s YouGov opinion poll, which showed the lead of the Conservative Party down to just four points.
Releasing the renminbi for Asia
Nomura has an ambitious big-think analysis paper out on getting Asia’s strident recovery through the medium term, particularly via capital markets reform. Check the Long Room for the full report, by John Lllewellyn and Lavinia Santovetti.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Tuesday,
- BP’s Q4 replacement cost profit rises 33 per cent to $3.4bn, versus an expected $4.6bn – statement.
- Nomura returns to profit in third quarter – statement.
FSA fines Nomura £1.75m
Nomura has been fined £1.75m for “extremely serious” failings in its equity derivatives business as part of a regulatory crackdown by the UK’s FSA financial watchdog. The penalty stems from the failure by one of its former employees in Hong Kong to properly account for market volatility levels in his trading book.