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’Bahrain bank flight, quantified
Q. What happens when your prized offshore banking system is occupied by Saudi Arabia?
A. This:
(Click to enlarge)
The tables above are from the Bahrain central bank’s financial statistics for March 2011,
Time to start watching the uranium-fossil spread
If energy markets were ever confused, it’s now.
On the one hand the Japanese earthquake immediately implies bearishness for crude oil on account of lower demand. On the other hand it implies a hike in demand for refined products.
In the midst of a permanent oil-equity correlation breakdown?
Harry Tchilinguirian at BNP Paribas observes the curious breakdown in correlation between oil and equities of late:
As can be seen, the last time there was as sharp a breakdown in the correlation was in the fourth quarter of 2008 — after which a period of extended correlation was observed.
The big four ‘known unknowns’ for oil
Citi analysts raised their Brent oil estimate to $105 and $100 for 2011 and 2012 respectively, from $90/barrel, on Monday.
That’s as Brent crude sits tight around the $115 per barrel mark, with WTI not far behind at $105 per barrel.
Why you really can’t swap Libyan crude easily, at all
It’s not just about finding enough quality crude to replace Libya — it’s about the not insubstantial political risks hanging over those supplies, too.
Fighting in Libya worsened on Wednesday, as rebels counter-attacked an offensive by Gaddafi forces into the country’s east — which is where much of the oil production is (was),
The imprecise science of revolting indexes
It’s the perfect season to roll out what TheSource calls a “revolting index”. As the blog’s Alen Mattich remarks, investors — not just autocrats — are also spending “a lot more time these days looking over their shoulders”,
Oily shadows of 2008
What do over $100 per barrel oil prices really mean for the global economy?
According to Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC, the situation doesn’t bode well for the recovery at all.
His Friday research piece beings:
Boosting Saudi supply
Supply of government cash to hose down dissent, that is.
While many argue that Saudi Arabia and its oil reserves remain in little danger of being rocked by unrest, King Abdullah perhaps disagrees.
Via Al Arabiya,
Goodbye, Mr Mubarak
Update: A snap from Reuters — CABINET SPOKESMAN TELLS REUTERS DECISION ABOUT EGYPT’S PRESIDENT STAYING OR LEAVING DUE IN HOURS
Breaking at pixel time — the Egyptian army appears to be levering the country’s president out of power:
A hunger for change
Add criminally high youth unemployment and stir. Charts via Goldman:
Related link:
Egypt protests liveblog - The Guardian
Sterling, Dubai: a liquidation love story
In case you were wondering why sterling might be suffering on the back of the Dubai story, Reuters reports on Thursday:
LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) – The Dubai government could be forced to hold a firesale of its international real estate if creditors to two of its flagship companies reject proposals to put near-term debt obligations on ice until May 2010.