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’The problems with fuel consumption data
John Kemp has an excellent column out Wednesday on the latest auto sales data, emphasising that buyers of US cars are increasingly shifting towards compact, fuel-efficient vehicles, and pointing to recent analyses arguing that $4 gas won’t reduce demand the way it did in 2008,
John Kemp dismantles the commodities vs global demand chart
On Thursday we wrote about the San Fran Fed’s commodities vs global demand chart. Just so you don’t have to go back, here it is again:
We were unsure how to reconcile that chart to another, earlier chart provided by John Kemp of Reuters,
All together now: “The forward curve is not a forecast”
We’ve touched on the issue of the forward curve not being a forecast a few times on FT Alphaville before.
But just in case it still hasn’t hit home — since many are seemingly still confused — here’s a little more from former energy analyst John Kemp,
The Worst Columnist in the World
When does robust punditry cross over into downright rudeness?
Answer: when the New York Times’s Paul Krugman starts picking on some poor analyst from the International Energy Agency.
Consider this outburst:
Is ‘cash for commodity’ the biggest trade in town?
FT Alphaville has speculated before about the chances that the financial credit crunch led a number of commodity players to turn to the term-structure of their markets to access an alternative type of funding.
A discreet draining operation?
And we aren’t talking about Dyna-Rod here.
But this, which is hot off the John Kemp wire at Reuters:
TREASURY SAYS TO RESUME SUPPLEMENTARY FINANCING PROGRAM FOR FED
TREASURY SAYS EXPECTS BALANCE IN SFP TO INCREASE TO $200 BILLION FROM CURRENT $5 BILLION LEVEL
TREASURY SAYS AUCTIONS WILL BE IN FORM OF EIGHT $25 BILLION,
In praise of market discipline
Wolfgang Münchau, a genuine insider when it comes to the great European experiment, counsels us not to worry too much about moral hazard as the surreal discussions over the non-bailout rescue of Greece continue.
The market-maker problem
Reuters uber-columnist John Kemp has penned some thoughts about the ‘Volcker rule’, and according to him the biggest problem facing the implementation of the prop trading ban will be differentiating internal speculative business from market-making activity.
The regulatory muddle in energy markets
John Kemp at Reuters reminded us that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is due to unveil a raft at new rules, with lots of new tricky details on position limits and exemption guidelines for a whole range of market participants.
America’s greener trend
The world could probably do with another oil shock, as far as the effect of such an event on energy consumption goes.
From John Kemp, at Reuters, a counter-intuitive chart showing the amount of energy consumed in the US compared with the size of the economy;
Banks’ flashy commodity positions
Ah, those mysterious ‘fixed income, currency and commodities’ divisions at banks like Goldman Sachs. They do so well, yet we never know exactly how much which bit is making or how.
Well, we’re pleased to report a little more light can be shed on these matters now.
How risky is Goldman?
John Kemp over at Reuters has published some sober – and much needed – analysis on the amount of risk Goldman is taking on its trading books.
The back story here is that Tuesday’s figures showed Goldman’s net value at risk (VAR) in the second quarter averaged $245m,
What recovery? (updated)
Here’s a chart on rail freight volumes in the US from John Kemp, the Reuters columnist. He reckons it’s a good proxy for manufacturing and construction activity – and it provides some indication that, despite fitful euphoria in financial markets,
“The adjustment in the US Treasuries market is THE story in financial markets”
A quick comment from John Kemp on Wednesday’s Treasury sell-off:
Benchmark 10YR US Treasury bonds continued to sell off heavily yesterday, sending yields to the highest level since Nov 2008.
The adjustment in the US Treasuries market is THE story in financial markets,
Global currency, it COULD happen
Who would have thought, even a couple of months ago, that calls for a global currency might be taken seriously as a solution to the current financial crisis?
Yet, the concept is gaining incredible momentum.
All Reuters needs now is a name
Navel-gazing time now on FT Alphaville.
Rattled by the growth of the online financial commentariat – see expansion plans at the WSJ’s Heard on the Street column, Breaking Views, the FT’s influential Lex column and (cough) this humble blog – Thomson Reuters is launching its own opinion service this summer.
TALF goes live
About time. The Treasury has finally set a launch date for its much anticipated Term Asset Backed Securities Loan Facility, or “TALF”.
A reminder: the scheme was originally announced in November with the aim of going live in February.
Public thrift, private profligacy
Here’s a chart from John Kemp at Reuters:
It shows the growth in nominal US GDP versus the growth of the financial sector, as measured by total credit market instruments outstanding.
Now consider this second chart:
The dollar is in freefall
No, seriously. It’s getting smashed. $/Y at 87.75 at the time of this Reuters grab. The currency had fallen further – to 87.17 – by pixel time.
That’s just what Ben Bernanke needs – a full scale panic out of the dollar.
A further history lesson…
This time from John Kemp, newly installed as a Reuters columnist. He’s concerned that some of the historical comparisons being banded about are based on a very shaky understanding of the historical record.
Kemp: “The United States is now, in some very general sense, bankrupt”
Here is a radical proposal from John Kemp, the former Sempra Metals economist, who seems to have had enough “resting” between jobs. His provocative ideas would appear to apply to the UK as well as the US.
[John Kemp] - Follow the money V
The following is a paper published earlier this week by former Sempra Metals economist John Kemp looking in detail at the Fed’s emergency money market operations and its ultimate reliance on Chinese support.
[John Kemp] - Follow the money IV
The following is a paper published earlier this week by former Sempra Metals economist John Kemp looking in detail at the Fed’s emergency money market operations and its ultimate reliance on Chinese support.
[John Kemp] - Follow the money III
The following is a paper published earlier this week by former Sempra Metals economist John Kemp looking in detail at the Fed’s emergency money market operations and its ultimate reliance on Chinese support.
[John Kemp] – Follow the money II
The following is a paper published earlier this week by former Sempra Metals economist John Kemp looking in detail at the Fed’s emergency money market operations and its ultimate reliance on Chinese support.
[John Kemp] - Follow the Money I
The following is a paper published earlier this week by former Sempra Metals economist John Kemp looking in detail at the Fed’s emergency money market operations and its ultimate reliance on Chinese support.
Welcome to the new G-8
No, not the G-7 plus Russia.
The G-8: US, Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Canada, Italy and… China.
While China was not formally part of the co-ordinated monetary defibrillation on Wednesday, it very much signalled its support for the the Fed’s stabilisation plan by cutting its own interest rates.
This one can’t be pinned on Greenspan
So declares Fannie Mae’s mission statement, attached to all communications by the government-sponsored enterprise:
Fannie Mae is a shareholder-owned company with a public mission. We exist to expand affordable housing and bring global capital to local communities in order to serve the U.S.