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’Not so fast, Japan
Japan’s June trade data surprised everyone on Thursday, squeezing narrowly into a Y70.7bn ($898.4m) surplus. Year-on-year exports declined only 1.6 per cent, versus a median forecast of -4.1 per cent according to Reuters.
The second biggest equity market in the world
It’s the UK, which has just over taken Japan according to Citigroup.
A stark contrast to the London Stock Exchange which is the world’s 10th biggest exchange company by market value.
Japan gets Moody-ed
Like so much in Japan these days, the economy is generating bad news and some good news. But circumstances — and some international views — appear to be conspiring against it.
On the day that Moody’s said it had put Japan’s credit rating on review for a possible downgrade,
Japan redefines ‘exemplary’…
A somewhat bemusing view of Japan’s responses to what we now know to be a partial nuclear meltdown after the country’s March 11 disasters comes via AP on Wednesday, (our emphasis):
TOKYO — An International Atomic Energy Agency team says Japan’s nuclear authorities underestimated the possibility of a massive tsunami hitting the Daiichi power plant but praised the overall response.
Goldman Sachs makes an expensive typo
The following is the formula for a properly structured warrant tied to Japan’s Nikkei index — which would (we presume) be easy enough to hedge for its issuer:
(Closing Level – Strike Level) x Index Currency Amount / Exchange Rate.
Coal, real interest rates and FX
The commodities rout confused a lot of people because it didn’t seem to have an obvious cause.
Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, however, are getting mystified about another element related to the slide.
The tragedy of Tepco, yes it can get worse
The seemingly endless kabuki tragedy of Tepco lurches on, with Friday’s announcements that the utility behind one of the world’s worst nuclear contamination scares incurred Japan’s largest loss for a non-financial company ever.
Japan’s ‘temporary’ recession?
The news from Japan on Thursday reinforced some of the worst fears about the state of the economy, but not everyone is gloomy — far from it — although the latest growth figures are truly horrible.
As the FT reports:
If it bleeds…
With hedge funds going into the meedja sentiment business this is probably worth exploring:
Finance news articles mentioning ‘crisis’ are at a three-year low, say Société Générale’s cross-asset research team using a famed indicator:
The tsunami effect, charted
In the days immediately following the twin earthquake and tsunami disasters in Japan, there was much speculation about how big the impact might be on the country’s trade and exports.
Now thanks to Sean Corrigan,
Further further reading
For the commute home,
- Can you predict who will get a Nobel in economics?
- The amazing story of JP Morgan’s hunt for Afghan gold.
- In defence of ETFs.
- What was that Goldman said about demand destruction?
- Peter Diamond is targeted.
Off the Pace [updated]
Surely heads are going to roll at UK-based Pace.
The world’s biggest maker of television set-top boxes has followed March’s disingenuous results statement with a profits warning on Tuesday morning that has knocked a third from its share price:
For all the BMWs in China
From BMW’s record earnings statement on Wednesday:
“The BMW Group is well on its way towards achieving new sales volume and earnings records for the full year. We are aiming for a record sales volume of well over 1.5 million vehicles as well as new full-year sales volume records for each of our premium brands BMW,
Japan’s ‘stunning’ stats: Yosano’s new nightmare
As variously predicted, the “3/11 effect” on Japan’s economy is starting to kick in. And true to warnings that the impact could be far worse than feared, the latest batch of data is reasonably horrible.
If you prick a sovereign, why do they not bleed?
You all know we’re absolute suckers for anything with ‘sovereign vulnerability’ stamped all over it. So…
… Presenting Rabobank’s latest Sovereign Vulnerability Index:
Yeah, the US and Japan are pretty prominent.
Uranium markets, the post-Japan view
Given the scale of the original reaction to troubles at Japan’s Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear plant, it’s interesting to see the degree to which uranium ore prices have stabilized since March. Especially since the crisis itself is doing anything but.
Beige Book on the impact of the Japan earthquake
The Fed’s latest Beige Book mostly confirmed what was already known about the US recovery: continuing moderate growth, labour markets gradually improving, raw materials and energy costs putting pressure on prices,
What was that about Chernobyl?
Amid large aftershocks and fears of nuclear contamination rocking eastern Japan on a daily basis, it was the last thing anyone in the country needed to hear on Tuesday: that the crisis at the crippled
Pink picks
Comment, analysis and other offerings in Wednesday’s FT,
Martin Wolf: the radical right and the US state
What does the rise of libertarianism portend for the future of the US?, asks the FT columnist.
Japan, nuclear accident upgrades, economic downgrades
It was a sobering start to Tuesday, after an equally sobering Monday evening punctuated by strong tremors in Tokyo and the northeast, followed by yet another big aftershock and many more nasty tremors throughout much of Tuesday.
Quake watch: More rock’n'roll in Japan
Another day another quake… At least, it felt a bit like that when, exactly one month after the March 11 quake and tsunami devastated northeastern Japan, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit the northeast yet again and rocked Tokyo at 5.25pm on Monday.
Quake watch: Japan hit yet again
Just as anxious, sleep-deprived and quake-traumatised eastern Japan was beginning to relax – just a little: a fresh earthquake struck the already ravaged region of Tohoku and rocked Tokyo at 11:32pm local time,
Yen moves
Here’s the movement in the yen since the Japan earthquake on March 11:
And something that crossed the Reuters wire earlier today:
The dollar briefly rose to its highest in more than five months against the yen and gained versus the euro on Tuesday after minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting showed some Fed officials believed the U.S.
Five reasons the yen will strengthen
Since March 11, analysts in Tokyo have widely predicted that the Japan’s triple disasters – earthquake, tsunami and nuclear plant crisis – would heighten risk averseness among Japanese investors.
Indeed,
The hidden slide of Japanese business sentiment
The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan business survey is seen as a vital guide to corporate Japan’s expectations and more importantly, a key indicator of spending and investment plans.
It is also, as MoneySupply once noted,
Tepco confusion
The latest kerfuffle about the future of Tokyo Electric Power Co, the power provider and operator of Japan’s crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant, began quietly enough, with a small report in the Mainichi Daily newspaper,
Japan’s hedgie trap
Some more insights into the (financial) traps and machinations of Japan’s post-March 11 markets and their impact on investors — this time from the FT’s Sam Jones, formerly of the FT Alphaville’s parish.
Don’t bet on Japanese repatriation
There’s been a lot of talk about how repatriation of funds will affect the yen in the weeks and months to come.
Most believe the flow of funds back into Japan will see the yen strengthen. There are,