RSS feedhouse prices
’Missing piece of the puzzle – US housing to bottom in 2012?
As Monday’s Lex notes regarding the US stock bounce has a sting in the tail
Don’t look now but amid the negative news on everything from the shambles in Europe, America’s debt wranglings or worries over China,
Safe haven alternatives, London property edition
As FT Alphaville and others have duly noted, the search for the ultimate safe haven alternative is on.
RBS now points to one possible alternative, London luxury-home prices.
From their European rates morning research note:
Haunted housing
The US housing double-dip — it’s official:
Data through March 2011, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices,
Are US house prices not falling after all?
Douse your double-dip fears, house prices are actually going up.
At least that’s the contention by Citi analysts in a note published on Friday.
But before looking at their research here’s a quick reminder of the where the S&P/Case-Shiller index stands,
The underlying trend in UK house prices
Another day, another piece of gloomy data from the UK economy.
This time it’s real estate.
The Halifax house price survey for April:
As usual the Halifax’s Martin Ellis takes the Panglossian view:
S&P sees eurozone, UK housing headwinds on swelling rates
Here’s a convenient continuation of the rising-European-rates-meets-real-estate theme.
Standard & Poor’s reckon “fresh headwinds are gaining force in Europe’s real estate markets” due to rising interest rates (or at least,
Further further reading
The “Further further readings” post usually runs in the late afternoon US time, but in this case you can file it under “we forgot to hit publish”. Doh! Or consider it a Tokyo special. Either way, sorry about this.
US housing double-dip, continued, again
Ouch, nearly everywhere.
The Case-Shiller house price numbers are out for December — and as always, they show a three monthly average (in this case for October, November and December) with a two month lag.
Doubting the data, US home sales edition
Here’s something the US market may have missed on Monday.
It’s the battle of the housing data providers — with CoreLogic challenging the National Association of Realtors on their recent home sales figures.
Chinese inflation through surging online searches
Inflation in (simplified) Chinese is 通 货膨胀.
Standard Chartered are back with another ‘wisdom of China’s online crowds’ piece, or a look at Chinese consumer trends through internet searches. There’s a difference this year though.
David Rosenberg’s cartoon-ish 2011
David Rosenberg’s gone all cartoony.
The Gluskin Sheff analyst seems to have given up on on words and is instead using charts — and Loony Tunes — to illustrate his (very salient) points.
The introductory text:
Forget non-performing loans, how ’bout performing ones?
Non-performing loans — those defaulted or nearly-defaulted loans — have naturally grabbed headlines during the US housing crisis. In fact, they tend to be a focus for nearly every bond or bank investor in gauging investment risk.
The Spanish (asset) Elimination
A top-read story on Bloomberg this Thursday morning?
One that combines the words ‘foreclosed homes’ with ‘Spain’ and ‘tripled’ :
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) — The number of foreclosed homes for sale in Spain may triple next year as new accounting rules prompt lenders to dump their depreciating assets,
House price rant
Pressure can do funny things. Just ask Steve Morgan.
The chairman and biggest shareholder of housebuilder Redrow has let rip at the company’s AGM on Thursday morning, accusing the government and regulators of deliberately suppressing housing demand at the very time a chronic housing shortage is laying the foundations for the next boom and bust cycle.
Anyone for a double-dip in UK house prices?
And the UK housing market pain continues…
Following Monday’s news that UK mortgage approvals fell to an 18-month low in September, comes Thursday’s Nationwide house price index, showing that prices fell 0.7 per cent in October.
From foreclosure to writedowns
Foreclosure worries are now (finally) seeping into bank shares and credit.
Four US financials — Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, GMac/Ally, PNC — have halted foreclosures in all or some US states while they sort out technical deficiencies in their paperwork process.
Halifax UK house price fall is ‘off the scale’
Crash, bang and wallop.
Or, the sound of the UK house building sector on Thursday morning:
The thunderous thump comes on the back of Halifax’s monthly house price index, which revealed — in the words of Channel Four’s own Faisal Islam — a simply ‘off the scale’ monthly fall of 3.6 per cent in September.
What has caused the Rightmove? (updated)
This share price spike in Rightmove, the UK’s leading property search website, has caused some head scratching in the Square Mile on Friday morning.
But it is easily explained – a French rival has received a bid.
Missing the Housing Bubble 101
Here’s an, erm, brave discussion paper out from the Boston Fed.
In it, authors Kristopher S. Gerardi, Christopher L. Foote, and Paul S. Willen examine “optimism” and “pessimism” about the US housing market before the recent crash.
Hamp – it’s worse than we thought
So the US Treasury’s centrepiece mortgage modification programme — Hamp — is something of a failure. That much we knew already.
But Laurie Goodman over at Amherst Securities brings up another point.
Geriatric asset prices
BIS analyst Előd Takáts is worried about ageing. And not in a personal way, either.
In a caveat-heavy but very interesting Bank for International Settlements working paper, the economist seeks to investigate how ageing populations will impact asset prices — specifically,
US Housing Bubble v2.0, charted
It’s no secret that the US government is trying to prop up house prices.
Its various programmes, Hamp, MHA, tax incentives, etc., have been explicitly linked to higher house prices before — most notably in Sigtarp’s first-quarter report to Congress.
US homeownership minus negative equity = 61.6%
Knock 5.6 percentage points off the American dream: US home ownership.
Doing that will effectively strip out those homeowners currently in negative equity, according to a Federal Reserve paper by Andrew Haughwout,
US monetary base growth is really quite off the chart
From the latest edition of the St Louis Fed’s Monetary Trends:
Err, time to expand those parameters maybe?
On a more serious note, the St Louis Fed’s May Monetary Trends also has a short section on the effect of monetary policy on asset prices — including house prices and equities.
Double digit house price inflation is back
Rejoice UK homeowners.
From the latest Nationwide House Price Index, published on Thursday morning:
That’s the first double digit rise in UK house prices since June 2007.
But don’t expect it to last because from here on the comparatives get tougher.
Hamp-lified, moral hazard outrage du jour
Earlier this week, a US Treasury presentation containing suggested alterations to the department’s Home Affordable Modification Program (Hamp) leaked to the media.
One of the central suggestions of the presentation was that lenders would no longer be able to start foreclosing on a delinquent borrower until they’d been screened and judged ineligible for the Hamp.
Falling UK house prices – the next big thing?
A surprise drop in UK house prices in February – the first decline in 10 months – has left us asking a familiar question.
Was it just the bad weather or is this the start of a new trend?
From Nationwide,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Friday,
- Lloyds reports annual loss of £6.3bn – statement.
- Telefonica files 2009 results, sets modest growth targets for 2010 – statement.
- UK house prices fall for first time in 10 months in Nationwide survey – BBC.
The CoCo mortgage, coming soon?
We’ve referred to the Debt Hangover speech by Andrew Haldane, the Bank of England’s financial stability wizard, once already on Thursday. But it’s worth revisiting to highlight his views on mortgage structuring.
Not many new homes
Calculated Risk has a nice rundown of the various government programmes aimed at propping up US housing.
By Calculated’s count there are eight, including the Home Affordable Modification Plan (Hamp),