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’A rare case of par in Greece
Ha! Greek sovereign structured finance ha!
A great spot from Owen Sanderson over at IFR:
The desperation of the Hellenic Republic has had an unexpected upside for some ABS noteholders. Those holding
Raison d’etat and leaving the euro, by Jurre (aged 11)
The eurocrisis is a big problem. I think about solutions.
Here is why we at FT Alphaville think Jurre Hermans’ proposal for (or subtly ironic warning of the costs of?) a Greek eurozone exit is absolutely brilliant. Brilliant in its brutal honesty about what eurozone exit,
If you thought Greek bondholders were subordinated…
Subordination of private bondholders by the official sector is already very acute. This means that the more a PSI exercise is delayed, the higher the haircut on the notional needs to be for a given level of debt relief.
The Fund, arrears, and Greek holdouts
So it turns out that we won’t know, for a little while longer, who the holdouts are in Greece’s foreign law bonds – a remaining pimple on the bottom of its debt workout.
Greece has pushed back the deadline for foreign law bondholders to agree to a debt restructuring to April 4,
The Greek bond ‘holdout’ that got away: a footnote
Noting for the record… (H/T Lorcan Roche Kelly of Trend Macrolytics)
Some €4.27bn of bonds held under the ECB’s Securities Markets Programme matured last week. That’s the largest sum maturing in a week since the bond-buying began.
Balkanising bank bonds
This is, as the FT reports, quite a curious decision by the European Central Bank’s Governing Council (which met this week):
(Click image for full doc. It amends the ECB’s breakthrough decision
It’s Mostly Fiscal (Transfer)
Our Brussels Blog colleague Peter Spiegel has penned a great piece on the latest IMF report into Greece, covering the Hellenic Republic’s ‘Request’ for the second bailout.
Even at more than 200 pages,
A proper debt restructuring
It was never going to be the world’s largest sovereign debt write-down. That was Greece last week. Anyway, how could it. The Federation of Saint Kitts and Nevis is the smallest country in the Western Hemisphere.
Ireland ‘disappears’ from ECB collateral list [updated]
Update: Just to make clear (in addition to the ECB’s tweet below) that Ireland’s odd absence was an error after all. It couldn’t really have been anything else. The ECB’s usually not that mean about exiling a country’s assets…
Greece *upgrade*
Fitch had already given notice they would raise Greece’s credit rating from restricted default — it’s a technical thing related to the ‘cure’ of Greece’s default by completion of its bond swap.
And so the new Greek bonds are now rated B-…
[Credit event auctions] Greece CDS payout cheatsheet
On Monday, we’ll finally know what amounts will be paid out to those who bought credit default swap protection on Greece, following last week’s credit event.
Which means it really is worth knowing how the payouts will be derived.
Finland’s still got a secret [updated]
Updates — Oops. The original version of this presentation seems to date from October last year, although the details remain current. In any case, if it does date to October, we should make that clear.
Isda Greece credit event? There is
(Click images for Isda DC decision on Greece CDS, and statement)
Isda’s given the credit event auction date for Greece CDS as March 19.
Key points from the Isda FAQ on the Greece credit event “YES”…
Ok guys, hands up who booked the weird Greece CDS trades…
[Twiddles thumbs, waits for Isda to announce whether there's been a credit event on Greece...]
There’s a bit of an oddity in the pool of CDS trades on Greece. To understand it, we need to explain a bit to you about credit events,
Greek PSI — the implications
While everyone is wondering about whether Isda will call a credit event on Greece or not, JP Morgan’s economic research team on Friday cuts straight to the point.
Credit event or no credit event, what we should really be talking about is debt sustainability.
Greek PSI — the analyst reaction
An initial roundup of the PSI commentary out this Friday morning.
First off Standard Chartered’s Sarah Hewin, who thinks Isda might call a credit event:
Participation in Greece’s debt restructuring (the Private Sector Involvement,
Greek PSI — the results
(Click image for full PSI results press release)
Holders tendered 85.8 per cent of Greek law bonds into the exchange. Greece has announced that collective action clauses will be used, to restructure 95.7 per cent.
Those new Greek bond yields…
Update — Aargh maybe we do have to stay up. Reuters has a Greek official bandying round a nearly 95 per cent participation rate figure. Also see the FT’s update below.
Looks like FT Alphaville New York won’t have to stay up until the wee hours of Friday morning after all — from the FT:
Greek bond and T-bill characteristics on Thursday, March 8
Literally. (H/T Don Smith.)
Economistocracy declares oil the new Greece…
At least that’s the message from recent notes by Credit Suisse and HSBC, though we suspect this will change as we near the moment next week when we find out the results of the debt restructuring. Surely Greece will then be the new,
Now witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational collective action clause, etc
Latest from the Greek finance ministry (its debt manager has met German banks):
The Republic confirmed that if it receives sufficient consents to the proposed amendments of the Greek law governed bonds identified in the invitations for the amendments to become effective,
[SFTW] Now that’s what I call a Target
One of the mysteries, to me, of the Greek crisis has been why there should be any deposits left in the local banks. All those with more euros than they need in order to eat and stay warm and dry should have moved their savings to,
Finland’s got a secret
A reader passes on this curious detail from a Finnish MPs’ debate on Greece (via Helsingin Sanomat):
Some MPs expressed shock that the Ministry of Finance decided to keep the collateral agreement reached between Finland and Greece a secret.
Credit event circus, cont’d
NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) – Bill Gross, the co-CIO and co-founder of bond giant Pimco, said on Thursday that the decision by a major derivatives agency to not declare a credit event on the writedown of Greek sovereign debt sets a dangerous precedent.
Isda decides to decide on Greek credit event
Stand by…
ISDA Determinations Committee Accepts Question
Related to a Potential Hellenic Republic Credit Event
LONDON, February 28, 2012 – The International Swaps and Derivatives Association, Inc.
Isda Greece credit event around here?
Has Greece CDS been triggered? The question’s finally been posed to Isda’s determination committee and is currently pending:
It’s quite a long one.
Does the announcement of the passage by the Greek
A special invitation from the Hellenic Republic…
Here’s the key Greek document — the invitation to participate in the PSI bond exchange. Click to read.
Here also is the trust deed covering the new bonds and GDP-linkers.
The worlds inside a Greek GDP warrant
Let’s start by saying you’re a bondholder mulling Greece’s PSI offer this weekend. (Or you’re Maynard, after a hellish week, reflecting on the offer that you helped to create.)
Remind yourself…
a) You’ve read on the front page of the FT that eurozone creditors are turning Greece (still an OECD state!) into an economic protectorate.
Greek PSI — the offer
Click image for the full release doc — we’re still waiting for the technical memo stuff:
Entwining bailouts and eurozone central banks
Exhibit one, the Greek default.
The European Central Bank will not take losses on Greece. It will not even have to do anything tricky with ‘purchase prices’ etc under the latest bailout deal. The ECB simply hands over profits on the bonds that it makes over time (accrued coupons,