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’Goldman Sachs says Tips mean (gold) prizes!
Take a close look at this chart from Goldman Sachs:
See the (until recent) correlation between an inverted US 10-year Tip (Treasury Inflation Protected bond) rate and the Comex gold price?
It’s a point Goldman Sachs has made before,
Goldman still bullish on commodities: Oil, corn, copper to rise
Want another reason to be bullish commodities?
The commodity bulls at Goldman Sachs have put out another ballsy forecast for the market, this time predicting a 17.5 per cent return for the S&P GSCI Enhanced Total Returns Index in the next 12-24 months.
Goldman still bullish on crude (even in the face of weakness)
WTI crude fell through significant support on Thursday, having traded firmly range-bound since the beginning of August.
The weak technicals and bearish fundamentals, however, are not going to dampen Goldman Sachs’s bullish outlook.
Banks’ flashy commodity positions
Ah, those mysterious ‘fixed income, currency and commodities’ divisions at banks like Goldman Sachs. They do so well, yet we never know exactly how much which bit is making or how.
Well, we’re pleased to report a little more light can be shed on these matters now.
Goldman’s preferiti
Oh dear. Another week, another negative Goldman Sachs story.
The Wall Street Journal does the honours this time, in the shape of a story by Susanne Craig shedding light on the bank’s more dubious research practices.
Presenting, the ‘physical loophole’
First there was the London loophole. Now, it appears, the development of another entirely new loophole is underway. Let’s call it the physical loophole.
From Intercontinental Exchange CEO Jeffrey Sprecher’s Tuesday testimony to the CFTC on the matter of position limits and the influence of speculators on the price of commodities:
Is Goldman Sachs a giant credit portfolio?
Jim Bianco has a fascinating post at The Big Picture, asking what is Goldman Sachs?
His answer: one big credit portfolio.
And he has some convincing charts, including this one, showing the commercial bank’s (née investment) stock price against the option-adjusted spread of an investment grade CDS index.
Further reading
Elsewhere on Wednesday,
- An EU commissioner’s pipeline dreams.
- Could France’s special bond be its unravelling?
- Gasparino tells CNBC to stop protecting Goldman Sachs.
- On the matter of some rapidly disappearing central bank liquidity swaps.
Goldman bonuses top the boom years
Pay at Goldman Sachs this year is set to beat the boom levels enjoyed before the financial crisis, with employees on track to earn a record $770,000 each on average. The news accompanied surging second-quarter profits,
Goldman’s getting riskier
This morning we were struck by the following paragraph in a New York Times article:
While others are shying away from risks, Goldman is courting them. A common measure of risk-taking at Goldman and other banks is known as value at risk,
Oil/gas ratio likely to stay high
The epic flows of the last few months into the United States Natural Gas Fund ETF may be very counter-intuitive as far as predicting an upturn in the price of natural gas.
That, at least, is the message from Goldman Sachs on Wednesday,
“A $500bn fraud on the people of the world.” (Allegedly)
The run up in the oil price last summer to $147 per barrel seemed rather relentless at the time. But when it did peak momentum turned rather suddenly. Interestingly, the peak also coincided with the blow-up of energy firm Semgroup.
US commercial banks lost $9.2bn on derivatives trades in Q4 08
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is an under-remarked institution, given its mandate:
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) charters, regulates, and supervises all national banks.
Goldman’s required (Chinese) reading
Never one to pass up a chance to make money – or to let go of a lucrative project in-hand – Goldman Sachs has shown some uncharacteristic uncertainty over its maybe-maybe-not deliberations about whether to sell down its 4.9 per cent stake in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China – described by Bloomberg on Thursday as “the world’s most profitable bank”
Implicitly Explicit or not?
Goldman Sachs officially became the first US bank to issue FDIC guaranteed yesterday. But as some commentators are pointing out, where does this leave appetite for GSE paper? Furthermore, isn’t encouraging a potential slowdown in GSE paper sales actually a much bigger problem for the markets considering the paper lies largely at the core of the current crisis?
All of this,
Morgan Stanley rallies with Goldman
Share prices in Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs climbed steeply yesterday afternoon, erasing sharp drops in morning trading and bringing a positive end to a day of wild volatility on Wall Street. The two bank stocks,
Buffett calls his bottom
Paulson, Bernanke, Hume, Cox, Sants, Draaisma, G Cox, Sam, Bush, Rosenburg, Barber, Authers, Tett, Pot Luck, Bandit No1.
Do not underestimate the impact of this story:
Buffett invests $5bn in Goldman By Greg Farrell in New York
Goldman Sachs is raising $7.5bn in capital,
Bank trio in auction rate deals
Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank on Thursday agreed to buy back up to $14.5bn of auction-rate securities and pay $162m in fines to resolve investigations into whether they misled people who bought the debt instruments.
Goldman Sachs: “There’s nothing manipulative about our performance”
Goldman Sachs does not take kindly to suggestions that its continued run of strong results – credit crisis notwithstanding – could be attributed to market manipulation.
Lucas van Praag, Goldman’s global head of communications and a partner at the investment bank,
The Goldman affair – and why they made money
Goldman Sach’s untarnished, teflon-like exterior must be starting to get to people in the US. There’s a fearsome whirlwind swirling around the bank this week – based on very nearly nothing.
This all started with a column in the New York Times by Ben Stein in which he essentially charged the bank’s leading economist,