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’CDS report: All eyes on Dubai World
Gavan Nolan of Markit wrote this CDS report
European credit indices rallied today as the economic climate remained supportive of risk assets. The Markit iTraxx Europe index closed at 84bp, 1.5bp tighter than yesterday’s level.
A Twin Cities FX scandal – SEC freezes Pat Kiley assets
Dum-di-di-dum, di-di-dum, di-di-do…. (click to listen)
With failing economies, failing banks and failing stocks, bonds, IRAs, mutual funds, you can make profits during chaotic times…
Iran, the self-declared FX shrewdie
Fresh news from the 3rd Seminar on Banking Services and Export in Tehran: Iran gained $5bn by reducing the portion of dollars in its oil currency basket, according to Mahmoud Bahman, head of Iran’s central bank.
When equities are not enough, HFT turns to FX and futures
When Nasdaq-listed Knight Capital Group reported third quarter earnings on October 21, the numbers took many investors by surprise.
Net income at the electronic-trading provider fell in the period by 9 cents to 31 cents a share or $29.2m,
Have you been forexed?
From our pixelated post bag, concerning that $100bn forex hustle:
I read your story with great interest. I traded equity indices and FX very actively at the end of last year/ early this year with one of the big UK cfd firms,
The $100bn FX hustle
$100bn — that’s the daily figure for trading volume in the retail foreign exchange market, where amateur plungers play the dollar and the like.
The IPO prospectus for Gain Capital, one of the scores of firms tapping into this area of explosive growth,
Public versus private FX forces
We’ve noted the level of state intervention currently impacting FX markets. But Barcap’s Steven Englander puts it all rather succinctly in his latest note.
For the BarCap man, it is down to a battle between public and private interests (our emphasis):
Special FX moves
Here’s some chart porn to commemorate Tuesday’s special FX moves:
All of which is having the following effect on commodities:
Nice.
Of course, there’s one G7 currency you can trust to perform even more badly than the US dollar — the GBK:
Intervene or do not intervene, there is no try
World war. Cold war. Terror war. Star wars. Global FX wars! Welcome to the search for the new global supreme currency – or perhaps a basket of trade weighted indexed currencies.
Indeed, what began as the race to devalue has begun to irk those bearing the brunt of appreciation on the other side.
Aggressive FX marketing goes mainstream
We wrote last week about the extent to which retail investor money was contributing to growth in international foreign exchange trading, and to what extent Mrs Jones — the personification of the average yield-seeking western investor — was gaining ground on her Japanese equivalent Mrs Watanabe.
A little more intervention, a little less action
You spend years developing and structuring a single European currency. You take care mandating the terms and conditions for entry. You reject unworthy applicants. You launch with great success. You become the key alternative choice for settlement of international claims and central bank reserves.
Mrs. Robo Jones starts to make an FX impact
We’ve written about the shifting dynamics in the world of retail forex trading before. In particular, the phasing out of ‘Mrs. Watanabe’ in favour of ‘Mrs. Robo Jones’ — the western-based punter seeking returns in a zero-rate environment,
Foreign-currency lending is rising in Poland
S&P put out a review of the Polish banking sector on Thursday which, quite worryingly, concluded that the industry’s credit risks were rising because foreign currency lending — seen as the country’s biggest exposure to the global crisis — is actually growing.
Is the dollar reaching a turning point?
Ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision later Wednesday, and just one week after the dollar hit its lowest level for 10 months, forex markets and currency analysts are now talking about whether the US currency is reaching a turning point.
We’re all Mrs Watanabes now
Professional investors would immediately be suspicious of anyone claiming even the lower-end of the monthly returns being promised by sellers of the various off-the-peg algorithmic FX trading systems now being banded about the web.
Free money! Honest
The financial world’s attention may be on the high frequency trading programmes employed by numerous banks and hedge funds. But there is another story…
Algorithmic trading, by eliminating the human touch,
More dollar deliberations
Wednesday’s dollar dive (as illustrated below by the movements of the dollar index) is, according to some reports, being put down to yet more rather non-dollar friendly signals from China.
Specifically,
Then and now datapoints
Sean Corrigan, chief investment strategist at Diapason Securities provides us with the following list of ‘then and now’ observations:
Then…
DOW ’29: FELL 48% RALLIED 48% FELL 78%
NASDAQ ’00: FELL 40% RALLIED 40% FELL 81%
TOPIX ’89:
Rogers: Time for a dollar crisis
Amid some undoubtedly premature waves of optimism in the markets about economic, corporate and financial trends, the dollar’s recent rally has generated some bullish speculation about its medium-term trajectory.
‘Botched’ forex hedging leaves UK Foreign Office with £150m hole
The Foreign Office is scrambling to plug a hole in its budget of up to £150m this year as the recent collapse in sterling threatens to cripple the spending power of its embassies, the FT reported. The budgetary troubles follow what the Conservatives have dubbed a “botched experiment”
‘No fire power left’
David Bloom, Global Head of FX Research, at HSBC thinks the world has run out of fire power. Consequently, as there won’t be much more policy reaction after the G20 meet and because markets won’t be patient and wait for action already taken to become effective,
A ‘game-changer’ for the euro – and a coming CHF bloc
Morgan Stanley’s currency expert and emerging markets strategist Stephen Jen has been quick to leap on the significance of the push to give the IMF extra funds to channel to Eastern Europe. Citing what he calls a “game changer”
BNY Mellon’s fx team: Ultimately, buy gold
Bank of New York Mellon’s London-based currency strategy team (made up of Simon Derrick and Neil Mellor) presented on Wednesday a very compelling view of what to expect in the forex markets in the next year.
Poland prepared for currency intervention
After hardly any action, the Polish government has finally signalled it is prepared to intervene in the forex market to stem the zloty rout which is currently causing jitters.
At 5 zlotys per euro, Prime Minister Donald Tusk says Poland will sell euros from the country’s reserves.
On your marks, get set, devalue
Just when every other country appears to be racing to devalue its currency, the poor Japanese yen just can’t stop strengthening. Its rise against the euro Monday was accompanied by a splurge of bad news,
Beware the comeback currencies
Forex crosses seem to moving faster than you can say ‘Ben Bernanke’. So what to make of the latest reversals?
Dennis Gartman of the Gartman Letter is a little jittery. While the yen/euro cross has gone back to trend at 130,
The EE mortgage
Eastern Europe, that is, a part of the world that has seen a shocking boom in mortgage lending over the last few years.
In fact, even as most mortgage lending was beginning to freeze up in the west,