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’On the promise of exports
President Obama’s announcement, in January 2010, of his aim to double US exports in five years had the “benefit” of timing, coming so soon after the historic collapse of worldwide trade had just begun to recover.
On misunderstanding QE and UK inflation
Is QE money printing, or not? That is the question.
Is it hyperinfaltionary, or not? That is another question.
Ever since the strategy was rolled out by central banks in 2009, the vogue has certainly been to describe it as such.
A tale of two PMIs
China Flash PMIs out on Monday showed a seasonally-adjusted figure of 51.1 — the highest in five months and a big turnround from September’s 49.9. The preliminary PMIs are compiled by HSBC and Markit Economics,
It still all depends on the humble Greek depositor
There’s been plenty of comment, and prodding, about how European politicians need to man (and woman) up, bite the bullet, and start acting with conviction. After all, with every passing day, the price tag rises as the level of distress increases and lack of growth butts up against austerity measures.
Chinese exporters starting to do it tough
HSBC/Markit Economics’ Flash China PMIs came in at 49.4 for August — suggesting it will be the third month in a row of contractionary indicators.
It’s lower than the July’s 49.9, but slightly higher than the June final figure of 49.3.
Don’t even look at China for help
Chinese premier Wen Jaibao threw some shade on the eurozone on Wednesday, and the US too — insisting they get their own fiscal and monetary houses in order and recognise China as a market economy if they really want to see some investment.
US trade gap widens, meaning unclear
The news on Tuesday that the US trade gap in May widened to its largest point in more than two years won’t alleviate concerns about an expected disappointment in Q2 GDP, but the news isn’t quite as bad as the headline number would suggest.
[Wilmot's PMI tour] The strongman of Europe
Yes, we really are talking about the UK.
UK PMI new orders jumped to 59.1, marginally above Germany! Export orders were up 1.6 points to 56.9.
Some good news for the chancellor on Wednesday morning.
[Wilmot's PMI tour] Hola
Spain is out…
… and it’s not great news. New orders down 1.5 points to 49.6 and employment down too.
A big silver-lining though: export orders up nearly 2 points to 55.9, the highest since 2000.
What kinds of jobs would exports create?
Given the week’s bad news on US unemployment, there will be renewed and focused attention on what the government should be doing in response.
One fairy tale wish hope of the Obama administration is that exports,
Send for the rally monkey
The Dow is back at 10,000.
The reason (ahem) is Chinese export data, which was leaked on Wednesday and confirmed on Thursday. Apparently this is reassuring because its shows China has not been affected by the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone.
Recovery, OECD style (Germany not included)
Here’s some nice big-picture graphs to pore over on Thursday, courtesy of the OECD’s interim assessment of the recovery in developed economies.
Well, perhaps not so nice for Germany.
The OECD’s take on GDP growth in the G7 economies springs one surprise,
‘German domination of Euroland is a disaster’
What is it, Trade Imbalance Tuesday? Half a world away from the RMB revaluation wars, analysts have jumped on a recent French attack on German exports as the debate over eurozone recovery grows.
We’re pleased to note that this particular spat kicked off in the FT’s august pages on Monday,
Germany’s export decision
Following news on Thursday that the European Union will support Greece in its fiscal hour of need, it’s still the case that the cost of euro-peripheral bailouts will have to be borne by someone.
For the time being in Europe that means the community’s most productive members,
Correction: China’s exports did not spike in December
Investors cheered earlier this month when it emerged Chinese exports rose for the first time in 14 months last December (and by 17.7 per cent year on year no less).
Unfortunately for the bulls, Standard Chartered’s Stephen Green on Wednesday poured cold water over the notion that the figures confirm a global recovery is under way.
Chinese yuan appreciation pressure mounts
Chinese industrial output in October accelerated at its fastest rate in seven months, according to figures released on Wednesday.
Analysts are now cautioning that sort of rebound will only heighten pressure on China to appreciate its currency versus the US dollar as exports rebound and domestic focus once again is forced to turn to inflation.
The US export problem
IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard has been engaging in some green-shoot whacking of late, not least with his views on what is really needed to propel a US recovery.
In one word: exports.
Bank of New York Mellon flag up this particular quote on Tuesday:
China’s fake recovery redux, or who’s laughing now?
From Reuters on Wednesday:
BEIJING, June 3 (Reuters) – China’s export sector will remain weak in the second half of 2009 even though Beijing is trying its very best to help, a vice commerce minister said on Wednesday.
Rolex, anyone?
The latest Swiss watch export figures do not a pretty picture paint. Data gathered by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry in April, showed exports fell 26.3 per cent in the month, continuing the precipitous decline which began in October 2008.