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’The Juncker statement
“What, you people thought I was joking about the €325 mil and a promise from Samaras not to renegotiate terms later? Then watch this.” – JC
Okay, that’s not what was said in the statement from Jean-Claude Juncker cancelling Wednesday’s meeting of eurozone finance ministers.
Latest eurozone downgrade…
That eurozone finance ministers meeting set for Wednesday…
You know, the one that represented the final, final deadline for Greece, dictating a weekend of rioting and a political crunch in Athens…
On balkanisation and credit claims
We missed Willem Buiter’s comments on “additional credit claim” ECB collateral when they were published on Monday. But since it’s pretty strong stuff from the Citigroup economist…
(Might need a key.
LTRO credit claims, not so carry trade
Just as “free lunch” appears in a Bloomberg headline on the ECB’s three-year liquidity…
Here’s a pair of interesting analyst reactions to Friday’s details on eurozone central banks’ rules for accepting additional credit claims.
Bailouts and obsolescing bargains
The central administration lacks the management, oversight and co-ordination structures to support effective implementation and long-term management of policy measures, including structural reforms to support sustained economic growth.
Venizelos, uncut
Having been Schäubled late on Thursday, here’s the actual statement issued early on Friday by Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos. We’ve emphasised the rousing, emotional stuff…
(Via Google translate;
Greek funny money
Greece is not printing its own money already. No drachmas are being issued by Greece, nor is there monetisation of public debt. However….
And with that rather tantalising intro — Stephane Deo of UBS blows the lid off something we’ve been wondering about Greece for a while.
Mangled metaphors from Neelie Kroes
From the European Commission vice-president (Digital Agenda), interviewed in the Dutch paper Volkskrant, via Google translate…
“…But there is absolutely no man overboard when we miss someone from the eurozone…Maybe my word choice was not entirely happy.
The preferred, puzzling, ESM
Eurozone states signed the final version of the treaty establishing the European Stabilisation Mechanism on February 2.
(Click the image for the full document)
The ESM treaty now heads for ratification by 17 states,
That Eurozone repo contraction, charted
We’ve had the results of ICMA’s European repo survey, but the following chart — by way of the ECB’s statistical data warehouse — offers a much more contemporaneous view thanks to data collected by the ECB via its MFI balance sheet reporting regulation .
Breaking up is hard to do — but here goes, anyway
From Jonathan Tepper, economist, chief editor of Variant Perception and co-author with John Mauldin of Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercyle…
A thirteen point guide to breaking up the euro.
Those countries that opt to remain in the euro will,
Would you join a monetary union like this?
That, essentially, is what many Poles are currently asking themselves.
After all, Poland has been aboard the euro-adoption boat for a long while. Expectations for eurozone entry were so ingrained in the population they even managed to spawn a euro-denominated mortgage binge.
The Italian bid, redux
We’re sticklers for this stuff — but it’s an important point by Societe Generale’s analysts on Tuesday: (click charts to enlarge)
There’s your exosphere-thin trading in Portugal at the moment, incidentally…
Revised ECB liquidity number du jour
More ECB LTRO stuff, this time from Credit Suisse’s European banks team:
Furthermore, there has been a lot of commentary surrounding the potential utilisation of the second tranche of 3yr funds due on Feb 29th,
Bilaterally — yours?
The FT’s James Mackintosh recently pointed out an interesting provision in the loan agreement Greece has with its bilateral official creditors – its fellow eurozone states.
They are entitled to require Greece to pay the whole loan back immediately if the country defaults on private bondholders.
US MMFs versus the Eurozone, Part 2
In the first installment of US money market funds versus the eurozone, the funds were seen fleeing the continent as quickly as possible, leaving all sorts of funding chaos in their wake.
In part two,
Eurozone breakup as a central scenario
Capital Economics has been envisaging a Eurozone breakup since at least 2010, but they’ve just got a little more concrete about this being their central scenario:
Risky asset markets have generally made a bright start to 2012.
Flash PMIs and Germany’s bragging rights
Europe must grow its way out of this slump! It’s not enough to bail out profligate sovereigns and banks! Capital must be deployed to SMEs! Youth unemployment must be tackled! Fiscal discipline is not enough on its own!
Fire all engines!!
Markit Flash Germany PMI®
German private sector sees fastest growth for seven months in January,
Lorcan Live, incorporating Jean-Claude Juncker (and some Rehn)
Time we went post-modern in our eurozone coverage. Read from the bottom up…
And here’s some earlier reporting from the FT’s Alex Barker et al:
Eurozone finance ministers on Monday night rebuffed a deal presented by private owners of Greek debt as a “maximum” offer for the losses they are willing to sustain,
The EBA 9% rule and the Eurozone crisis
Back in October 2011, James Ferguson, banking analyst at Arbuthnot Securities, warned that the EBA’s tough new capital rules could be about to make the eurozone crisis a whole lot worse because the absence of fresh capital meant banks would have no other choice but to contract their assets.
This crude old eurozone crisis
Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s commodities analysts have picked up that Brent crude — when priced in euros — is uncomfortably close to its July 2008 peak.
And they’ve added some interesting points:
Is it a rally, or is it short covering?
Exhibit a) the euro versus the dollar:
How does one account for Tuesday’s sudden (and rather non-news specific) reversal in the euro?
Here are the thoughts of Michael Derks, chief strategist at FX Pro:
Schrödinger’s bonds
Just like Schrödinger’s cat, a fixed income security can be in two states at any one time.
Until tested in the market the bond can be considered both repo-able or lend-able.
The condition is decided upon by the observer,
Downgrade Friday
RTRS-SENIOR EURO ZONE SOURCE SAYS S&P SET TO DOWNGRADE SEVERAL EURO ZONE COUNTRIES LATER ON FRIDAY, GERMANY IS NOT ONE OF THEM
Rabobank says go Dutch
(We’ll get our coat)
Since there’s a question-mark over who’s going to buy the circa €200bn of fresh eurozone sovereign debt being sold in the first three months of 2012…
We were piqued by Rabobank’s Richard McGuire and Lyn Graham-Taylor argument on Friday that picky investors should look at the Netherlands.
A tale of two collateral markets
The BIS quarterly review, which was published last week, provided some interesting thoughts on current liquidity and funding conditions (both secured and unsecured) — and how central bank transmission mechanisms have been affected as a result.
Tricky cartisti
There’s a certain Italian elegance to this intraday chart of Iti 10 year sovereign debt, no?
Technical analysts might spot an upside down head with a shoulder-shrug. Maybe.
That twitch higher,
Procrastination kills, Greek debt edition
FT Alphaville is still confused by eurozone bigwigs’ promise that they’ll follow “IMF principles” to be friendly to bondholders in sovereign debt bailouts. Versus, say, being nasty about making them write down debt.