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’Who’s the most imbalanced of all (EU members)?
Here’s a graphic designed to give one a headache (click to embiggen)…
To clear things up, it’s a projected scorecard from RBC Capital Markets representing the expected findings of the first EU report on economic imbalances,
Hungary — the good, the bad, and the conditionality
Hungary — still in basket-case mode earlier on Thursday… (a snapshot courtesy of Bloomberg):
The government sold 35 billion forint ($140 million) of one-year bills, 10 billion forint less than targeted,
Germany 1 – France 0
Danger, danger: Merkozy tape bombs exploding on Monday afternoon.
They have a deal!
(emphasis ours)
RTRS-FRANCE’S SARKOZY SAYS THE FRANCO-GERMAN AGREEMENT IS COMPLETE, WILL BE SENT TO VAN ROMPUY ON WEDNESDAY
RTRS-SARKOZY SAYS FRANCO-GERMAN PROPOSAL WILL MEAN MODIFIED EU TREATY,
That Mad EIB plan (and other trial balloons)
Tuesday’s post by Macro Man on the latest eurozone trial balloons is so good we that we wanted to pass along the highlights (while also encouraging you to read the whole thing).
First, Macro Man’s considers what shall henceforth be known as the The Liesman Plan.
About those Greek privatisations..
Confusion in Greek bailout Mk 11 — not just for bondholders. This time it’s about the privatisation receipts.
Deutsche Bank has set its economists Abhishek Singhania and Alexander Duering to the task of addressing client questions over the differences between the EU and IMF financing documents.
Fiddling while Rome and Madrid burn
Brace yourselves.
It could be just a matter of days to weeks before a new leg of the systemic crisis therefore hits markets. Expect Italy, then Belgium but also other EGB to widen sharply.
So says Harvinder Sian,
Eurozone at breakpoint
We have been waiting for this – the RBS report on eurozone debt crisis, policy options and end game scenarios.
And it doesn’t disappoint.
The RBS team, lead by chief economist Jacques Cailloux, reckons the Euro area is at ‘breakpoint’,
A Greek debt buyback?
Monday’s very late statement from the Eurogroup.
Related link:
EU considers change of strategy over Greece – FT
What keeps an EU finance minister awake at night?
The upward trend in Italian government bonds, of course.
And the reason this is such a concern is because Italy is not far from the danger zone.
As Gary Jenkins of Evolution Securities explains:
Eurogroup to Greece – your move
Monday’s (very early) statement from the Eurogroup.
Quick summary. We’ve done our bit (or will have by early July), now it’s your turn.
(emphasis ours)
Statement by the Eurogroup
The Greek authorities are embarking on a significant and necessary adjustment effort.
The real risk to Greece is Greece
An obvious point maybe, but one worth making, reckons JPMorgan’s David Mackie.
He thinks we should move on from worrying about the dispute between Germany and the ECB on Greek Bailout II and instead focus on what’s happening in Athens.
Greek bailout — Part II
Risk on!
Markets across Europe were moving higher on Tuesday morning….
… following reports that Germany that claim Germany is softening its stance on fresh financial aid for Greece. In other words,
What was Juncker thinking?
The price action in the euro on Thursday afternoon.
The reason for the sell-off is the Eurogroup’s Jean-Claude Juncker who has just lobbed this hand grenade into the market place:
EUROGROUP’S JUNCKER SAYS IF PAYMENT OF IMF TRANCHE OF AID TO GREECE IN JUNE NOT BE OPERATIONALLY POSSIBLE,
Solving the EU debt cris–oh look, a rainbow!
To criticise this feels a bit like kicking a puppy (H/T Lorcan):
But: “EU institutions had tried to stop them…” — seriously? Still, we suppose “Time to stick to the rules” beats “We blame hedge funds”
Kicking the Greek debt can further down the road
The price action in Greek government bonds on Monday morning:
Volatile huh? But probably unsurprising as we still don’t really know what was discussed at Friday’s mysterious meeting by eurozone finance ministers,
Portugal, sell your gold!
The terms of Portugal’s draft bailout agreement have been revealed. But no mention within the documents about what happens to the country’s ample stash of gold bullion.
Some 12.3m troy ounces in fact,
Revealed: the Portuguese agreement
A great scoop from the Portuguese newspaper Expresso — they’ve managed to get a copy of the draft memorandum of understanding between Portugal and the EU/IMF/ECB, as part of its three-year bailout.
You won’t find the total cost of the bailout or its interest rate here,
Portugal’s formidable adjustment programme [updated]
A few more details on Portugal €78bn bailout package were starting to emerge on Wednesday morning.
From Reuters:
- PORTUGAL BAILOUT DEAL INCLUDES UP TO 12 BLN EUROS FOR POSSIBLE BANKING SECTOR RECAPITALISATION-SOURCE
- PORTUGUESE BANKS HAVE TO RAISE CORE TIER 1 CAPITAL RATIOS TO 9 PCT END-2011,
Wires: Portugal agrees to bailout loan
Bloomberg and Reuters, citing Portugal’s prime minister Jose Socrates, are reporting that the country has arrived at an agreement with the EU and IMF on a three-year, €78bn ($116bn) bailout loan.
Some details from Bloomberg,
Smoke, mirrors, and Greek maturity swapping
A confusing morning for Greek debt restructuring watchers on Monday, with CDS spreads up to 1,220 bps at pixel time, Markit said.
From the Greek newspaper Eleftherotypia, meanwhile:
The Greek government has asked the IMF and the EU about increasing [the maturity of] the total debt.
Missing – Portuguese dead cat
What next for Portuguese government bonds?
At pixel time on Thursday morning there hadn’t been so much as a dead cat bounce, which was not the case with Greece or Ireland when they went cap in hand to the IMF/EU.
One step from high yield – Portugal
More on Tuesday’s downgrade of Portugal (and, to a lesser extent, Greece) from the excellent Harvinder Sian at RBS.
He reckons S&P are spot on with their decision to cut Portugal to BBB- (with the ratings outlook negative) and says there a real risk of a downgrade to junk.
Portugal’s negative cash flow
Ahead of Friday’s meeting between Portugal’s political parties and President Aníbal Cavaco Silva and after S&P’s two notch downgrade, we thought this chart (from RBS) was worth an airing.
So,
Greek debt: restructured
Given questions over Irish sovereign credit events (for which there’s full background here, via Lorcan)…
…Did anyone notice this weekend’s Greek debt restructuring?
It’s ‘only’ the official EU and IMF loans that have seen terms altered following Friday’s EU summit.
BoI refuses to go quietly
Bank of Ireland won’t bow to the inevitable.
Monday after (stock) market hours statement:
The Bank is discussing a number of structures with the State to raise the requisite Core Tier 1 capital by 28 February 2011.
Psst. Have you heard about the EU’s secret committee?
Well, it didn’t come from us (taps side of nose) but apparently the EU has a covert, conspiratorial — rather German — top-secret eurozone reform committee.
From the EU affairs specialist, EurActiv:
Eurogroup – Live
It’s the event of the week — the European finance ministers’ meeting in Brussels.
Tune in and find out if there’s been an agreement on increasing the size of the EFSF, or even allowing it to buy sovereign bonds.