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’That Greek bank risk in New Europe, continued
If there’s something Greek and strange in your neighbourhood (bank contagion risk to sovereign credit in emerging Europe, to be precise)…
…Who are you going to call?
In Nomura chart form:
Click to enlarge.
Where’s the Greek CΣΣ contagion?
FT Alphaville mentioned on Monday that the CDS market did not appear to be implying much of a contagion-effect for Central and Eastern Europe in connection with troubles in the Hellenic Republic.
And having on Thursday noted the widening spread between Greek government bonds and German bunds,
Sovereign debt crises 2010, an RBS sapling
What is the `Tree of Truth’?
According to RBS, it is a Binary Recursive Tree Approach aimed at selecting explanatory variables and critical threshold levels that best discriminate between sovereign debt crisis and non-sovereign debt crisis states.
Is Poland selling itself for nothing?
Budget deficits are increasingly being perceived as emerging Europe’s biggest problem.
Austria’s Erste Bank — a lender with more exposure to the region than most — picks up on the issue in a recent note,
No discount for you, says Erste Bank
Austrian lender Erste Bank — heavily invested in the emerging European banking systems of countries like Romania and the Czech Republic – said late Thursday it was launching a €1.6bn no-discount rights issue to bring its capital base in line with raised expectations on mounting loan losses in emerging Europe.
The other emerging Europe crisis
The real-estate consultants BH2 have come out with an interesting take on a much less written about currency crisis potentially facing four countries in the west Balkans: Serbia, Croatia, Macedonia and Albania.
Apres le rally, look to Asia and to gold
Hold on equity investors – and look to Asia, if some are to be believed. There is general unease among investors ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. But that amounts to mere surface jitters compared to more substantial concerns about the approaching end of the “bear market rally”
Emerging Europe outlook: still bleak
It’s still not looking good for Emerging Europe according to the latest report on the region from Fitch:
Growth in EE is expected to drop more than in other regions as the characteristics of many countries — such as trade openness,