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’The ECB’s epic ode to monetary analysis
Life is surely too short for this.
Out on Thursday — Almost 500 pages (well, 480) of European Central Bank discourse on why monetary analysis should be included in monetary policy decisions.
Believe it or not,
Missing the Housing Bubble 101
Here’s an, erm, brave discussion paper out from the Boston Fed.
In it, authors Kristopher S. Gerardi, Christopher L. Foote, and Paul S. Willen examine “optimism” and “pessimism” about the US housing market before the recent crash.
The Great (Economist) Mortification
Will Philip Mirowski be getting an invite to the next economist shindig?
Perhaps not.
The Carl Koch Professor of Economics and the History and Philosophy of Science at the University of Notre Dame has taken a flame-thrower to the post-crisis explanatory powers of his colleagues,
The three risks to global growth, from Barclays Wealth
Three regions, three problems.
According to strategists at Barclays Wealth on Monday, the global economy is facing three big risks in three big regions:
The risks are that U.S. consumers do not increasing spending,
Paul Krugman wants to reach out and punch someone
Remember that time we said economists were fractious creatures? Forgive us, we misspoke. They’re *really* fractious creatures.
Exhibit A – Paul Krugman’s blog post of July 2 at 7:47am, and headlined:
Bloggers can’t do economics. Discuss.
A new-ish letter (H/T Greg Mankiw) from a Fed economist opens with the below:
In this essay, I argue that neither non-economist bloggers, nor economists who portray economics —especially macroeconomic policy— as a simple enterprise with clear conclusions,
And a round of applause for those who blew up the economy…
We’d never heard of the Dynamite Awards before, but they appear to be — in ethos at least — a distant cousin of the notorious Darwins.
But unlike the Darwin Awards, these gongs aren’t handed out to those who’ve managed to kill themselves in inordinately silly ways.
US non-farm payrolls fall JUST 11,000 in November
US non-farm payrolls fell by JUST 11,000 jobs in November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday.
Repeat non-farm payrolls fell by JUST 11,000 in November.
And that’s a huge surprise: the analyst consensus was for a loss of 130,000,
Cautiously optimistic Fed officials cut unemployment forecasts
Officials at the Federal Reserve lowered their projections for US unemployment in the coming years, according to the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
The minutes,
And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics goes to…
Elinor Ostrom, Arthur F. Bentley professor of political science and co-director of the workshop in political theory and policy analysis at Indiana University Bloomington “for her analysis of economic governance,
On the matter of groupthink
Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg makes a lucid point in his Wednesday report (our emphasis):
It does appear that we have some groupthink to consider — virtually everyone at this stage is now bullish on the market.
North Dakota, engine of US growth?
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (the Philly Fed) has released its “monthly coincident indices” for June, showing the economic conditions in each of the 50 US states.
47 states showed declining activity over a three-month period,
The problem with economics
Of all the economic bubbles that have been pricked, few have burst more spectacularly than the reputation of economics itself.
So says the Economist in its exploration of what went wrong with the dismal science and its practitioners, whose pronouncements – in the wake of the ongoing economic crisis – “are viewed with more scepticism than before”.
On the (de)merits of small banks in developing countries
Over at the Economist’s Free exchange blog, a handful of top-flight economists (as one would expect) have been engaged in a lively debate on the optimal size and complexity of developing countries’ financial systems.
Who saw it coming and the primacy of accounting
Massive hat tip to Chris Cook for pointing out this fascinating paper.
In it, Dirk J Bezemer of Gronington University attempts to show that certain contrarian economic models — and economists — anticipated the credit crisis and the ensuing recession.
US non-farm payrolls fall 467,000 in June
US non-farm payrolls fell by 467,000 in June, according to a worse-than-expected report released on Thursday by the US Labor Department.
Economists in a Reuters survey had forecast that 363,000 jobs would be lost in the month.
Arnold Schwarzenegger declares “fiscal emergency” in California
California’s governer declared a state of “fiscal emergency” after lawmakers failed to agree on a budget plan by the deadline on Wednesday, Reuters reported.
From Reuters:
California’s lawmakers failed to agree on a balanced budget by the start of its new fiscal year on Wednesday,
US consumers not so confident in June, Conference Board says
Despite the prognostications of CNBC talking head Dennis “Uncork the Cristal” Kneale, US consumers aren’t feeling all that positive about the health of the world’s largest economy.
As Bloomberg reported on Tuesday,
Ecocomics
Ecocomics — where comic books meet economics — is filled with brilliant musings such as:
- Where does the Canadian government get the money from to keep making super-soldiers?
- “In an earlier post,
ONS gets sums wrong on retail sales
One of Britain’s most closely watched economic indicators has heavily overstated the quantity of high street sales over the past two years, the Office for National Statistics admitted on Friday. Britain’s supplier of official statistics conceded that since the financial crisis began in August 2007,
Blogonomics, or the economics of writing for “free”
Mark Penn, chief strategist of the Clinton Campaign, sparked an uproar in the blogosphere last week when he asserted the following in the pages of the Wall Street Journal:
In America today, there are almost as many people making their living as bloggers as there are lawyers.
Inflation’s upside surprise
UK December inflation came in higher than expected, though it still fell the most since 1992. From the FT:
UK inflation fell in December by the most since 1992 as the cut in VAT came into effect and stores slashed prices in an attempt to attract customers,
Kotlikoff’s sale of the century
There is only one sale, a US-wide national sale – 10 per cent off everything.
Laurence Kotlikoff, Boston university economics professor, social security whizz and part-time columnist, has a plan to solve the financial crisis.