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’Inflation targeting, back in the frame
We know who’s brought this on. It was Ben Bernanke, last week, with confirmation of the Fed’s 2 per cent inflation target. We suspect it’s one debate that is going to grow in intensity.
First to Bruce Corneil,
The risks of sticking to über harte währung strategy
Germany’s ‘hard money’ principles and opposition to Quantitative Easing by the ECB are, more often than not, framed with reference to the hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic.
Indeed, it’s a widely accepted truth that the horrors of the Third Reich were caused by the three year period of hyperinflation between June 1921 and July 1924.
Five steps to financial crisis
The farce of the eurozone’s debt crisis is understandably captivating, but is an even bigger situation developing in China? Credit-fuelled gullibility lies at the heart of most bubbles, but such gullibility provides quality fodder for fraudulent schemes too.
The market for honesty: Gold at $10,000
To those who think inflation is not a problem SocGen’s deep-thinking strategist Dylan Grice has two charts for you:
And what connects the first with the second is the fundamentally dishonest practice of printing money.
Cash is king
Here’s something you don’t hear very often in the City of London: cash doesn’t get the attention it deserves as an asset class.
But SocGen’s strategist Dylan Grice wants to change that. He reckons there are times when it’s simply the best thing to own.
The global economy is critically ill
It’s a SocGen double header on FT Alphaville this Friday morning.
You’ve had the apprentice (Dylan Grice) and now it’s time for the Dark Sith Lord (Albert Edwards).
The global economy is critically ill.
Mean-reverting US government bonds
Here’s an arresting chart from SocGen strategist Dylan Grice.
It shows gross interest payments as a share of US government revenues under two scenarios.
The black line is the most interest and shows what would happen if the US government had to pay a 5.8 per cent yield for its debt – the average of the last 200 years.
Why commodities may not be a good bet
According to SocGen’s Dylan Grice, seeking a decent long-term return on commodities is akin to selling coal to Newcastle: rather foolhardy.
For those in need of a history lesson, he has outlined the case of why in his opinion commodities aren’t really so swell.
Bursting bubbles
What better way to end the week than with a history lesson from Société Générale’s Dylan Grice:
Financial historians have shown that every single financial crisis since the 1870s has been preceded by rampant credit growth.
Dylan Grice vs Brics
Something from Société Générale’s Dylan Grice (and something of a reply to his SocGen colleague Albert Edwards), who recently indulged in the “mugs game” of forecasting capital gains in world equity markets,
The liquidity and momentum trade de rigueur
We’ll skip the stuff on the Ice Age, looming recession, competitive devaluation, protectionism and the 60 per cent off equities forecast (all of which is getting a little bit repetitive) and get straight to the freshest bit of the latest Global Strategy Weekly from SocGen’s Albert Edwards.
Dylan Grice vs Emerging Markets
Société Générale strategist Dylan Grice is back on the Rudolf von Havenstein trail.
Grice first brought up von Havenstein back in March, noting the Prussian central banker’s penchant for monetising Germany’s debt during the First World War — leading to massive bouts of hyperinflation.
The price of bear insurance
One of the ways you could criticise many of the über-bears in the market is that — while they’re good at prognosticating doom — they just don’t explain well enough what investors should do to avoid it.
China, 1789 and potash
What caused the 1973 spike in oil prices? The Opec embargo?
Wrong, according to SocGen’s Dylan Grice — who reckons it was merely the trigger. The cause was actually structural: a rapid surge in the import needs of the USA:
Summer reading from SocGen’s Dylan Grice
Need some beach reading? SocGen strategist Dylan Grice on Thursday shared five books he’s read recently that he rather enjoyed.
Here are Grice’s picks and brief commentary:
- “The Drunkard’s Walk” by Leonard Mlodinow isn’t just a book about how deceptive randomness can be;
Greece – ‘It’s not that different’
SocGen’s Dylan Grice is one person not bored with Greece. In fact, he believes it is the beginning of a wave of government funding crises, not the end.
The reason? The colossal amount of government debt that needs to be issued.
When to sell gold?
Now, there’s a question, and it’s one that Societe Generale’s Dylan Grice has attempted to answer on Tuesday:
JP Morgan once said he’d made his fortune by selling too soon. We spend much time thinking about what to buy and when to buy it,
‘Some useful things I’ve learned about Germany’s hyperinflation’
That’s from Dylan Grice — über-bear Albert Edwards’ sidekick at Societe Generale.
He’s done a review of inflation during the Weimar Republic inflation in his latest `Popular Delusions’ note. Prussian central banker Rudolf von Havenstein developed a habit of monetising Germany’s debt during the First World War,
Surely he can’t still be bearish?
So began the presentation of Albert Edwards at SocGen’s ‘Alternative Strategy’ event at London’s Marriott Hotel Grosvenor Square on Tuesday.
In front of a packed Westminster Ballroom — we reckon around at least 400 people turned up — Edwards revealed,
Festive reading
Looking for something to read over Christmas? Or perhaps you are struggling to find a pressie for the banker in your life?
Well, FT Alphaville can help — with a little assistance from SocGen strategist Dylan Grice.
Bargain Britain
The UK stock market is cheap.
That’s the surprising conclusion of the latest ‘Popular Delusions’ note from Soc Gen strategist Dylan Grice.
He has been using an updated version of Ben Graham’s Appraisal Method,
A Minskian roadmap to the next gold mania
It’s making headlines, so here’s what all the gold at $6,300 fuss is about.
Selected highlights of the latest ‘Popular Delusions’ note from Société Générale’s Dylan Grice:
Central bank hoarding of gold in 1970 ushered in the famous gold bull market.
The herd vs the reward, or in praise of contrarian investing
In a typically erudite note on Wednesday, SocGen’s Dylan Grice declared his allegiance to the anti-groupthink brigade, warning of the deleterious effect of the herd mentality on returns.
As he put it:
Where to find value in a liquidity drunk market
Bonds do it, stocks do it, even educated credit default swaps do it.
We live in strange times, with virtually every non-zero sum asset having embarked on a dizzy rally, all at once.
Since June, the S&P 500 is up 15 per cent,
Et tu Bernanke?
Societe Generale’s Dylan Grice, the Robin to Albert Edward’s Batman, has published a fresh bit of research on Friday.
As can be expected of the bearish duo, the note does not disappoint on the bleakness front.