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’[SFTW] Dear Davey: handbrake turn needed
Every government needs a thick slice of luck, and this week’s has come as Chris Huhne slid off the political road into the ditch. Ed Davey has a golden chance to drive away from an energy policy which might have been designed to make energy expensive and electricity unreliable.
Euro banks are not very popular…
Major fallers across the continent (NOT just the banking sector):
UniCredit, of course, has already unveiled a €7.5bn cash call. It would seem that the guessing now is who is next.
A snap observation from Chintan Joshi at Nomura:
Lloyd C. Blankfein wants YOUR feedback
Well, not yours, obviously. But random market professionals in the City of London who in recent days have been contacted by the mighty Goldman Sachs.
From: Lloyd C. Blankfein [mailto:gsbrandsurvey@ny.email.gs.com]
Sent:
Vol nightmares unrealised, for now
Here’s something to ponder for the commute home, via Deutsche Bank:
One topic of conversation with investors is why realized volatility has been similar to levels during 2010 (the onset of the European sovereign crisis),
Writing down Greece at Deutsche, encore
Deutsche Bank’s third-quarter results, 2011:
- A €777m profit, double forecasts but down from €1.1bn in the second quarter (excluding charges from the Deutsche Postbank merger)
- Sales and trading revenue €1.9bn (Q2:
“Voluntary” Greek bond exposure quotes du jour
At a conference in the German capital, [Deutsche Bank chief executive Josef] Ackermann also said the bank’s obligation to hold Greek bonds had cost it 400 million euros this year.
That’s via Reuters. No one’s forcing Deutsche to hold the debt,
Ka-Pow! Deutsche hit by the VAT man
As with UBS, there’s more than meets the eye to this Tuesday trading update from Deutsche Bank.
And we’re not talking about the missed €10bn pre-tax profit target (that’s no surprise) or another round of redundancies (again no surprise).
A genuinely stressful stress test
Wouldn’t it be nice if bank stress tests were, well, stressful?
Too often they look like they’re done by him:
When they should be done by her:
Fortunately Arbuthnot’s Mr. Banks, James Ferguson,
Ackermann unplugged
RTRS – SOME BANKS WOULD NOT SURVIVE HAVING TO REVALUE ALL SOVEREIGN DEBT AT MARKET LEVELS – SPEECH TEXT.
A statement of the obvious you might think. But what makes the above interesting is the source:
Ready, set, impair those Greek bonds!
Hey European banks! Have you seen this?
[International Accounting Standards IAS39 - Paragraph 59] A financial asset or a group of financial assets is impaired and impairment losses are incurred if, and only if,
Back to the drawing board at UBS
New capital and regulatory requirements, combined with a weakening economic outlook, are likely to weigh on future returns, constraining growth prospects for the industry. While we believe we will deliver higher profitability,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Tuesday,
- UBS to cut costs by Sfr1.5bn-2bn; 2012 profit target abandoned — statement.
- Q2 results from Deutsche Bank miss forecasts — statement.
- BP reports weaker than expected Q2 underlying profit of $5.6bn;
If you pay peanuts for ETFs, you get…
We had always heard stories about how profitable ETFs were for banks.
For example, people had told us that official management fees were clearly a red herring. By and large, the money was being made in the background,
Ackerman’s week to forget
It’s not been a good week for Deutsche Bank chairman and CEO Josef Ackermann.
First, he was forced to roll over his Greek debt for the greater good of the eurozone.
From the FT:
Mr Ackermann, speaking at a conference in the German parliament in Berlin on Wednesday,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Thursday,
- Morgan Stanley gives pre-stabilisation notice on Glencore IPO – statement.
- Bank of Ireland says Irish economy has begun to stabilise – statement.
- Deutsche Bank said to have “privately accepted”
The skeletons (or mortgage audits) in Deutsche Bank’s closet [updated]
One word to describe the narrative in the just-announced civil suit against Deutsche Bank’s mortgage unit: quaint. Though parts of it are still shocking.
The suit centres on alleged abuses of the US government’s mortgage insurance programme,
US files civil suit against Deutsche Bank’s MortgageIT [updated]
Breaking on Tuesday (flashes via Reuters):
Today 14:30 – U.S. FILES CIVIL MORTGAGE FRAUD LAWSUIT AGAINST DEUTSCHE BANK AG DBKGn.DE, MORTGAGE IT INC – COURT FILING
Today 14:30 – U.S. SAYS DEUTSCHE BANK,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Thursday,
- Deutsche Bank reports first quarter 2011 net income of €2.1bn; but results from Banco Santander disappoint — statement and statement.
- BSkyB adds 51,000 net subscribers in Q3;
Disgraced Deutsche banker seeks donations
Spotted on a purported Linked-in profile for the Deutsche banker who was fired after waving money at NHS workers — a solicitation for, erm, cash:
Surely he’s got some of those tenners left?
ETFs are proving not so tradeable during crises
FT Alphaville has been keeping tabs on the odd goings-on in Japan-related ETFs recently. And we’ve got another issue to add to our bundle of concerns…
… It’s just how difficult trading in some ETFs has proven to be during the crisis.
Death bonds’ unique risks
Victoria’s the Age newspaper on Wednesday published an interesting investigation into a bad life settlements investment by the Australian state’s quasi-SWF.
It alleges that it uncovered:
details of a new $500 million loss that was only entered in the corporation’s accounts at the end of last year and the mistakes that led to that loss – the lack of due diligence,
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Tuesday,
- Deutsche Bank warns Q4 profits will be significantly below expectations — statement.
- BP rejoins dividend list with Q4 payment of 7 cents a share ; to sell half of its US refining capacity – statement and statement.
Deutsche Bank fined $553.6m in non-prosecution agreement
It’s certainly been a busy few final days in the New York Attorney General’s office:
From Deutsche bank Tuesday afternoon (our emphasis):
New York / Frankfurt am Main
Deutsche Bank enters into Non-Prosecution
Agreement with US Department of Justice
USD553.6 million fine was fully provisioned;
Debauch-e bank
Deutsche Bank. So bound up in casino banking… (via the Economist):
JOSEF ACKERMANN, the head of Deutsche Bank, combines a silky manner with blunt words… when regulators and economists say that big banks should be broken up,
Deutsche Bank, the European flowmonster
Some more on Wednesday’s third-quarter figures from Deutsche Bank — in particular, the unexpectedly strong performance of its investment banking operations.
Huw van Steenis of Morgan Stanley says the figures showed the advantage of a being a flowmonster,
Compare and contrast – UBS vs Deutsche Bank edition
The more one looks at Tuesday’s third quarter results from UBS the uglier they seem — and not just because its top bankers want the $1m cap on cash bonuses lifted so they can pay the mortgage and the kids school fees.
Snap news
Breaking pre-market news on Wednesday,
- Deutsche Bank says sales and trading activity rebounded in September — statement.
- British Airways launches £350m convertible bond offering — statement.
Deutsche on the liquidity trap – and the last hurrah
Quantitative Easing v2.0 is almost entirely expected, at this point.
But it’s also something else, according to Deutsche Bank. It’s one last chance to avert a real liquidity trap and — intriguingly — to avert a retirement industry crisis.
No respite for Autonomy
Shares in the software company were down again on Tuesday in London. In fact, they were the biggest faller in the FTSE 100 at pixel time:
One factor behind the latest slide is a downgrade from Deutsche Bank.