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’The Roubini-Rosenberg indicator
We missed this on Friday… H/T the delightful Brazilian Bubble.
Further reading:
Hold the presses, Dr Doom is turning bullish – WSJ MarketBeat
A new bull market? Are you out of your mind? – BI
David Rosenberg’s cartoon-ish 2011
David Rosenberg’s gone all cartoony.
The Gluskin Sheff analyst seems to have given up on on words and is instead using charts — and Loony Tunes — to illustrate his (very salient) points.
The introductory text:
Goldbugging con’t…
Breakfast with Dave (Rosenberg, of Gluskin Sheff) on Wednesday included this remarkable, self-explanatory chart:
As we noted in early September, with inflation expectations low it isn’t just the inflationistas buying up gold,
Dave fires back
Dave Rosenberg has not taken Birinyi Associates’ attack on his bearishness lying down. In fact, Big Dave has taken – like lightning – to his newsletter.
First, a broadside against his insufficiently ursine compatriots:
David Rosenberg on why the yield curve will flatten – this time!
Dave Rosenberg is enjoying his moment.
On Thursday the Gluskin Sheff man took to his morning notes to answer one of the big questions regarding the Fed’s last — and future — bout of quantitative easing.
This is Dave’s moment
Finally. The moment David Rosenberg has been waiting for…
As the Gluskin Sheff economist stated in his regular Breakfast with Dave note on Wednesday (our emphasis):
Well, it took some patience but it looks like the economic environment I was depicting this time last year just shortly after I joined GS+A is starting to play out.
Rosenberg’s 17 reasons to be bullish (seriously)
Count ‘em! We’d better capture these bullish talking-points from Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg, just in case they disappear…
– Congress extending jobless benefits (yet again).
– Polls showing the GoP can take the House and the Senate in November.
A flashing red light from the ECRI
This will have bears like David Rosenberg and Albert Edwards licking their lips.
The Bloomberg chart below — which you can click to enlarge — shows the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) weekly indicator:
Nothing fundamental about this rally
What has really caused this?
. . . and this?
(Note the S&P 500 is now 7.1 per cent above the 10-month low reached on Payrolls Friday 12 days ago and just around 1.5 per cent away from its 200-day moving average).
Don’t panic, the Baltic dry is a rubbish indicator!
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) — a measure of shipping costs for dry bulk goods — suffered its 29th consecutive daily decline on Wednesday, to record its longest losing streak in more than six years, according to Bloomberg.
An initial double-dip indicator
Wells Capital Management wants everyone to forget Payroll Friday.
The number to focus on as an indicator for the shape of the US recovery, Wells’ chief investment strategist Jim Paulsen says, is not the monthly payroll figure,
Rosenberg: ‘Gold is now in a bubble? Not a chance’
This is Dave’s moment, and the the Gluskin Sheff man let fly on Friday – proclaiming the enduring attraction of gold, tearing into spurious retail sales figures in the US and declaring the primary trendline now to be global deflation.
Dave’s worry list
From Gluskin Sheff’s ever-cheery David Rosenberg on Friday:
A quick recap then – two, three and five, check. One, four, six, seven, eight and nine, more of a wait-and-see. As for home price deflation,
Rosenberg, damned
From Thursday’s Breakfast with Dave from Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist David Rosenberg:
DAMNED IF YOU DO …
We were told at a dinner last night with some clients and prospects that yours truly is far too bearish and that whatever good news there is out there goes under-reported.
Hamp-lified, moral hazard outrage du jour
Earlier this week, a US Treasury presentation containing suggested alterations to the department’s Home Affordable Modification Program (Hamp) leaked to the media.
One of the central suggestions of the presentation was that lenders would no longer be able to start foreclosing on a delinquent borrower until they’d been screened and judged ineligible for the Hamp.
This may sound a touch heretical, but…
Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg on Thursday proffered some contrarian thoughts about fiscal deficits.
Highlights below, emphasis FT Alphaville’s:
As for the bond market, we continue to see an overwhelming consensus that interest rates must move higher because of large-scale fiscal deficits.
Rosenberg’s ‘Not So Great Depression’
Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg has taken umbrage with the term ‘The Great Recession’ to describe the current global economic malaise.
According to the seasoned economist, it’s quite clear what we experienced last year was not a recession but a depression.
Why this is not the onset of a new secular bull market
By David A. Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff.
Related link:
Dave’s gonna hit someone – FT Alphaville
Dave’s gonna hit someone
Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg hit out at Jim Paulsen of Wells Capital Managment in his Monday missive. Why?
Here’s an extract from Paulsen’s latest monthly newsletter:
We believe the recession has ended,
Poor Dave
Much as we love him, we must report that Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg has finally lost it. Here’s the evidence – from his latest “Breakfast with Dave” note to clients on Thursday:
So far, the backup for the U.S.
Fuming with Dave
Regulars will know that we look forward each day to “Breakfast with Dave,” the regular market musings of David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff.
Sometimes it’s called “Lunch with Dave”, presumably when he’s travelling or had a late night.
Dave’s furious
By all accounts, David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff is an understated fellow – humorous, self-deprecating, softly-spoken and quietly ironic.
Yet it is easy to read one of his “Breakfast (or Lunch, or Tea) with Dave” missives,
Rosenberg: ‘I stand accused of having missed the turn’
David Rosenberg released a 24-page special report on credit, commods and Canucks on Friday, but before he delved into those matters he had some words for his critics (emphasis FT Alphaville’s):
I stand accused of having missed the turn and that accusation comes from the throngs who believe that the only way to generate a positive return is through the equity market.
“This overvalued, overbought, overextended market…”
Here’s some more from Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg, because his latest “Breakfast with Dave” note is just so good.
He is NOT buying this stock market – remember, bear market rallies “are to be rented;
Just who is buying this rally?
Here’s an insightful question from David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff on the matter of the current rally in global equities.
Who is actually doing the buying?
As Rosenberg notes:
It’s not private clients – stock funds registered net outflows of $1.33bn last week.
“Just because the conventional economists are drinking the Kool-Aid doesn’t mean you have to”
Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg woke up on a particularly bearish side of the bed on Tuesday morning, if his most recent note is any indication.
Some highlights (any emphasis or hyperlinks FT Alphaville’s):…all we see is more evidence of a revenue-less recovery.
On the matter of groupthink
Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg makes a lucid point in his Wednesday report (our emphasis):
It does appear that we have some groupthink to consider — virtually everyone at this stage is now bullish on the market.
Rosenberg (finally) sees green shoots
Gluskin Sheff’s chief economist and David Rosenberg appeared to be delighted by the rise in the Case-Schiller index of US house prices on Tuesday:
CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX RISES – NOW THIS IS A GREEN SHOOT!
One by one,
Meredith Whitney is our leader
David Rosenberg’s latest morning note has some interesting observations on the behaviour of investors and the cult of personality that seems to have arisen around former-bank slayer Meredith Whitney:
We thought that the ability of one person to move the market went out three decades ago with Henry Kaufmann over at Salomon Bros.,
“The notion that we had moved to Armageddon lows in equities does not seem to hold water”
Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg is fattening up clients with a steady diet of economic commentary masquerading as breakfasts, lunches, brunches, coffees and the occasional pastry.
In a mid-morning missive on Tuesday – “Snack with Dave”