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’UK GDP: a stats oddity
There is a lot of debate on whether the market is actually getting a decent picture of the UK economy at the moment — typified by the latest GDP release, though there’s also construction output and all sorts of indicators playing up and becoming highly volatile.
Clutching at the Chinese… baby-boomers
They are the ultimate consensus trade inside the ultimate consensus trade.
They are consumers in China.
Some charts from a big old jargony Morgan Stanley note on how European corporates can play the Chinese ‘megatransition’,
Mr Bean was right
Don’t save, spend, Bank of England official Charles Bean advised Britain on Monday, telling Channel 4 News that low interest rates made any other choice rather useless.
‘No problem at all, my dear Bean,’ said Britain.
Guest post: El-Erian on why the payrolls report matters
Today’s employment report was disappointing, writes Mohamed El-Erian. Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 131,000 in July, the rate and duration of unemployment remain stubbornly high, and other structural dimensions of the problem are deteriorating.
US shoppers spent less over Black Friday weekend
Consumers spent significantly less per person at the start of the holiday season this weekend, dimming hopes for a retail comeback that would help propel the economy early in 2010, Reuters reported. The lacklustre spending could pressure retail stocks on Monday,
‘US consumption engine of growth for Asia,’ Merrill says
Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Ethan Harris is not convinced that the plight of the US consumer — real as it is — will derail an economic recovery.
His clients, on the other hand, have been worried about just that:
US consumer bankruptcy filings hit fresh high in October
The recession might be over — if the most recent US GDP data are any indicator — but the US consumer is still feeling a world of hurt.
Consider the following data point from the American Bankruptcy Institute,
US consumers increasingly worried about their finances
On the heels of a report showing US consumer spending declined in September comes fresh data showing that Americans are increasingly worried about their personal finances.
The Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers final index of sentiment for October slipped to 70.6,
US consumer spending falls sharply in September
Spending by US consumers fell for the first time in five months in September, and by the largest amount in percentage terms since December 2008, data released by the Commerce Department on Friday show.
Slow US recovery blamed on low demand
Weak demand from battered consumers will be a “major constraint” on the US economy for the foreseeable future, key White House adviser Lawrence Summers said on Monday. Mr Summers, the director of the National Economic Council,
US consumers’ credit problem
Data released on Wednesday show US consumer credit declined for the seventh straight month in August as wary, cash-strapped consumers kept their credit cards in their wallets.
The Federal Reserve said consumer credit outstanding fell by a more-than-expected $12bn in August to $2,460bn.
Outlook for US consumer-facing sectors still poor, S&P says
It looks like US consumers’ thriftiness really will wreck Christmas, as far as US retailers and restaurateurs – and Standard & Poor’s – are concerned.
In a report on Tuesday, the rating agency said the consumer products,
The end of Kobe beef burgers, or how thrift stole Christmas
Frugal is the new black, according to everyone from David Rosenberg to the US consumer and the beleaguered retailers.
Consider the following piece, which appeared in the New York Times on Friday:
In the retail business,
The shape of things to come is probably not ‘V’
So say Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists — and it’s all because of those debt-ridden US consumers.
For years US consumers have binged on cheap credit and provided the demand needed to match China’s furious supply.
Goldman awaits the rise of the women
Perhaps this reflects our own biases more than Goldman’s, but we think the investment bank has come over strangely feminist in its latest research note.
“The Power of the Purse: Gender Equality and Middle Class Spending”
Fiscal patriotism
Perhaps what’s needed in this time of state fiscal crisis is a bit of war mentality — patriotism, solidarity and all that.
That’s our takeaway from a piece of research by Goldman Sachs economist, Saleem Bahaj,
US consumers not so confident in June, Conference Board says
Despite the prognostications of CNBC talking head Dennis “Uncork the Cristal” Kneale, US consumers aren’t feeling all that positive about the health of the world’s largest economy.
As Bloomberg reported on Tuesday,
The socialist shopper
Luxury shopping has become something of a disgraced activity of late. It doesn’t look good to splash £1,000 on a slouchy bag when your average plebian is coping with basic mortgage payments.
Hence we’ve seen luxury online retailer Net-a-Porter offering to mail purchases in non-descript brown packaging instead of their usual glossy black be-ribboned bags.